Party like '99? Three reasons for — and three against — New York winning the East
The gauntlet was laid well before New York Knicks owner James Dolan strolled into the WFAN radio studio for a nearly half-hour interview, during which he discussed the Knicks’ championship aspirations. “We want to get to the Finals,” Dolan said last week ahead of New York’s loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons, “and we…
The gauntlet was laid well before New York Knicks owner James Dolan strolled into the WFAN radio studio for a nearly half-hour interview, during which he discussed the Knicks’ championship aspirations.
“We want to get to the Finals,” Dolan said last week ahead of New York’s loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons, “and we should win the Finals.” Then he lightly slammed his hand on the desk for emphasis, grasping the gravity of his words.
“Getting to the Finals, we absolutely got to do.”
For Dolan, the Knicks’ reaching their first conference finals since 2000, which former coach Tom Thibodeau achieved last season, was not enough. Two-time Coach of the Year Mike Brown was brought in to get the Knicks over that hump — back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999.
So far in that mission, New York sits second in the East behind some thrilling moments — a Christmas Day comeback win and a run to the NBA Cup title chief among them. But since their triumph in Las Vegas, the Knicks are 7-7 with the 29th-ranked defense in the league.
Nearing the halfway point of the season, do Dolan’s Knicks seem any closer to breaking through? There are plenty of reasons why the Knicks should and shouldn’t be playing deep into June this season.
Three reasons the Knicks will reach the Finals
Conference-best continuity and playoff experience
The Knicks believed continuity would be an ultimate advantage, arguably one of the biggest reasons why the front office didn’t go all-in on the pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer.
Along with the fact Dolan fired Thibodeau, hired Brown and there weren’t any significant personnel moves before the start of the season gives the impression, he believes the Knicks have more than enough to get there.
Brown has relied on the existing coaching staff, particularly assistant Rick Brunson for insight on dealing with Josh Hart‘s early season role change. Brown called Brunson “instrumental” in keeping things together.
“Rick is fabulous the way he goes about his business,” Brown told ESPN. “He helps me with the pulse of this team, he knows all these guys very well, been around this group for years now. He’s a guy I lean on a lot when it comes to communicating with guys.”
The two biggest perceived obstacles to the Knicks getting to the NBA Finals seemed to fade before last summer even began. Tyrese Haliburton‘s Achilles injury in Game 7 of the Finals has sent the Indiana Pacers to the bottom of the conference, and the same injury to Jayson Tatum two series earlier severely limited expectations for the Boston Celtics.
But the Celtics have miraculously pulled themselves up the standings without Tatum and with a remade roster around Jaylen Brown. Boston sits third in the East on the back of torrid 3-point shooting, but it’s truly unknown how the team will look come playoff time, and what kind of conditioning Tatum will have if the superstar returns to the court before season’s end.
The Knicks’ 31 playoff games over the past two seasons trails only the Pacers’ 40 but far exceeds Detroit’s six (last season’s first-round defeat to New York).
An elite offensive one-two punch
From an offensive standpoint, it’s difficult to find a more explosive duo in the East than Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Not only did Brunson have his clutch moment against Detroit to close out that first-round series, but he has ranked high in clutch-time playoff scoring the past two seasons. Intangibly, he’s who Brown turns to when things get tight.
Short of his six-turnover showing against Detroit last week, he’s sure-handed and Brown has repeatedly praised him, stumping for Brunson to receive MVP consideration during the Knicks’ NBA Cup run.
“I hope now, when you guys start talking MVP candidates, his name is one of the first to come out your mouth,” Brown said last month. “On this stage to get it done while winning, is what in my opinion an MVP is all about.”
Brunson’s 29.0 points per game are a career high, and he’s shooting 38.9% from 3 on an average of 7.9 attempts, also a career high.
To this point, it seems only the Knicks have two players who can carry an offense and create mismatches for long stretches among East contenders. The Philadelphia 76ers have Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, but it’s impossible to predict Embiid’s health into the spring.
Towns has been open about the sacrifices he has made while adjusting to Brown’s system, and in his second season in New York his overall production has tailed as he turned 30 in the season’s first month. Brown has used wing Mikal Bridges as a secondary playmaker while Towns has figured out how to best utilize his touches.
Towns is still capable of big nights even with the change in direction offensively, with all five of his 30-point nights occurring in wins (his lone 40-point night, against the Minnesota Timberwolves, was a loss).
But when playoff defenses load up on stopping Brunson, the Knicks can still rely on Towns when he’s engaged and involved in the offense. He tends to float at times — he scored six points on only four shots in last week’s loss in Detroit — but few defenses can counter his versatile game.
Embracing the bench
Christmas Day was a dream for the Knicks’ front office, or at least those who wanted to see the bench utilized more. The Knicks trailed the Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points with 10:26 remaining in the fourth quarter, and most of Brown’s regulars were on the bench.
Then Jordan Clarkson, who struggled early in his first weeks as a Knick, and Tyler Kolek, who barely played last season as a rookie, were the catalysts. First it was Kolek, then Clarkson, then Kolek again with successive 3-pointers that cut the lead to three.
From there, Brunson stepped back in and the Knicks shocked Cleveland with a 126-124 win at Madison Square Garden.
Mitchell Robinson absorbed offensive rebounds, as he dominated Jarrett Allen (13 rebounds in 16 minutes). Clarkson was explosive off the bench (25 points). If there’s a formula the Knicks want to follow, an impactful bench unit would seem key.
“There is a comfort level to a certain degree of playing those guys,” Brown said later about trusting his bench against the Cavs. “You don’t want to be in a position where you have four or five of those guys [on the court at the same time]. …They do that and you keep them out there a little longer.”
Clarkson is a new addition to the equation. He struggled early but since Nov. 1, he’s averaging 10.6 points on nearly 46% shooting (and 36% from 3).
“Me coming here. New coaching staff, new system. Once those guys started seeing what I could do and getting me the ball in certain situations, we’ve been very successful,” Clarkson told ESPN recently.
The Guerschon Yabusele acquisition hasn’t worked out, and the Knicks would love to find a taker for him ahead of the trade deadline, but guard Miles McBride has played the best basketball of his career, especially after his return from injury in late December (46% from 3 on eight attempts since Dec. 29).
The mandate was clear from the beginning: The days of every Knicks starter being in the top 20 in minutes is over. Hart led the league in that category last season, while Bridges was third and OG Anunoby was fifth.
This season, only Brunson and Bridges average around 35 minutes.
The plan is to be fresher in the later playoff rounds, especially as more will be called for from the prime-time players. The Knicks were worn out by the Pacers’ high-octane offense in last season’s conference finals, unable to hold leads as they squandered a chance to reach the Finals.
That series wound up costing Thibodeau his job. It could also serve as the Knicks’ greatest teaching moment, should this season’s fortunes turn in their favor.
“We bring big sparks off the bench, big fireworks. It’s a different style of play,” Clarkson said of New York’s revamped bench unit.
“We try to play fast, turn the physicality up, mess up the game as much as we can. We’re some bandits out there.”
Three reasons the Knicks won’t
A defense that’s one level too low
This is far more of an offensive league, as evidenced by the past three Finals featuring at least one singular offensive engine that can override an average defense (Haliburton last year, Luka Doncic in 2024, Nikola Jokic in 2023).
It’s impossible to say Brunson carries that superior level of offensive gravity, so the Knicks will have to rely more on their defense, just to make it passable to get through the Eastern Conference.
Entering Sunday’s game against the Portland Trail Blazers, New York ranked 18th in defensive efficiency — and among the finalists since 2021, it would tie for worst regular-season ranking with Dallas in 2024.
And the Knicks have given up 114.9 points per game this season. According to ESPN Research, only two NBA champions gave up more during the regular season — the 1959-60 Celtics and 1966-67 76ers.
After New York was defeated by 30 against a Pistons team without Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris, Brown looked as frustrated by the lack of physicality as he had at any point this season. “This is pretty simple, they physically kicked our asses,” Brown said after the loss.
Scouts who watch the Knicks told ESPN they’ve been disconnected recently, which could be a function of a road-heavy stretch and the general weariness of the season.
Brunson is always an easy target on defense because of his 6-foot-2 frame, while Towns has long struggled with foul trouble and effectiveness — part of the reason the Knicks wanted to start Robinson at center was to ease Towns having to defend the rim for long stretches, but Robinson was soon moved to the bench. It’s hard to envision a team with two big holes in critical spots — point guard and center — overcoming that to get to the Finals.
Hart’s return will help — he started and played 31 minutes in the Knicks’ win Sunday over the Portland — and McBride is a solid perimeter defender who should take some pressure off Bridges, who hasn’t been as effective as a point-of-attack defender as he has been historically.
“Everything’s on the table right now for us defensively,” Brown said last week. “We’ve got to figure out how to bring it physically.”
The Knicks can’t afford an untimely injury
Though it took time for Brown to figure out how to best use Hart, inserting him back into the starting lineup permanently on Nov. 24, what isn’t disputable is how important he is to the unit as a connector. Without him, the Knicks looked lost at times on defense and on the boards, going 3-5 in his absence because of an ankle injury.
When Anunoby has sat out time, the Knicks have gone 2-4 against playoff-level teams (Milwaukee, Toronto, Minnesota, Miami, Orlando and Boston). The Knicks would be in big trouble if Brunson or Towns were to sit out time, and the same goes for Robinson, who has battled ankle injuries in his career.
Robinson’s offensive rebounding gives the Knicks’ second unit a level of identity, and he’s averaging nearly nine offensive boards per 36 minutes. After Robinson played a total of 48 games the past two seasons because of an assortment of ailments, so much of this season comes down to keeping him upright by the time the playoffs arrive.
He has started 13 games this season but has been more effective off the bench where he often plays in short bursts. The uptick has been gradual, with Robinson playing 24 minutes the past three games after sitting out three straight for load management.
When Robinson gets at least seven offensive rebounds — as he did on Christmas Day — the Knicks are 5-1.
When he, Brunson and McBride are on the court together, the Knicks gash teams, outscoring them by 18.1 points per 100 possessions. But depending on Robinson to play big minutes as the mileage piles up is a big bet, as the often unforgiving playoff schedule could take its toll on Robinson’s body.
Detroit — and now Boston — look legit
The Pistons have a long-held belief that if center Isaiah Stewart had been healthy for last season’s playoff series against the Knicks, they would’ve upset them in the first round.
There’s no fear factor between the neophytes and the perceived favorites in the conference, as evidenced by the beatdown they administered last week in Detroit. The teams meet two more times in the regular season (on Feb. 6 in Detroit and then in the first game after the All-Star break on Feb. 19 at Madison Square Garden) in what could be the conference’s next great rivalry.
It prompted Dolan to mention Detroit during his interview with WFAN last week, hours before his Knicks and the Pistons played in Detroit.
“They play hard,” Dolan said. “They play a physical game. In a seven-game series, it could be a different kind of battle.”
Stewart matches up with Towns, and Pistons swingman Ausar Thompson, who was the defender on Brunson on the series-clinching play last spring, forced him into six turnovers. What Detroit might lack in playoff experience and maybe even shotmaking on this current roster, it makes up for in defensive intensity. The Pistons have their own MVP contender in Cade Cunningham.
“I don’t think they can get past Detroit,” a scout, who has seen both teams recently, told ESPN.”
Detroit could also be lurking around the trade deadline should the franchise want to take a big swing for a possible Finals run, which could unnerve the Knicks considering the Pistons sit atop the East already.
The Knicks upset the Celtics in the second round last season, decisively at that. The clinching Game 6 was costly for the Celtics, losing Tatum to an Achilles injury that has cost him all of this season so far.
But the Celtics have remade their roster in what was supposed to be a gap year, getting younger by sending out Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis while letting respected veteran Al Horford leave in free agency. The roles for Payton Pritchard, Neemias Queta and Sam Hauser have expanded, and scoring guard Anfernee Simons has stepped in as a valuable reserve.
Shockingly, the Celtics are second in offensive rating and holding as a middle of the pack defensive team, a couple of spots in front of the Knicks.
If Tatum should return, even a lesser version of the All-NBA forward could turn a playoff rematch. After all, anything can happen considering both teams sit in the top four in made 3s per game this season.
