Play-in push or lottery pick? What's ahead for Giannis and the Milwaukee Bucks

ONE DAY AFTER the NBA trade deadline, Giannis Antetokounmpo stood on the sideline at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, waiting for a basketball to be thrown his way.

His two young sons, Liam and Maverick, each had one in hand. One after the other they mustered up their strength to unleash a two-handed shot high in the air toward their 6-foot-11 father.

Antetokounmpo took one ball and did a crossover dribble as his youngest son fell to the floor, before they all made their way toward center court. Antetokounmpo then began using the basketball like a soccer ball, kicking it off his foot and then bouncing it off his head as his kids watched with wonder, his mind seemingly more at ease than the fan base watching his every move.

Last Friday was the Milwaukee Bucks‘ final home game before the All-Star break, and the team planned to honor Antetokounmpo’s 10th straight All-Star selection before tipoff.

Standing at center court, he was surrounded by his two sons, two daughters, wife and mother.

Bobby Portis, his longest-tenured teammate, took the mic first.

“Appreciate all you do for the city,” Portis said as the crowd in Milwaukee chanted “M-V-P.”

Then his brother Thanasis, his teammate for six seasons in Milwaukee, took his turn.

“I’m proud of you, the team’s proud of you, everybody’s proud of you,” Thanasis added. “Don’t stop.”

It was a moment for the Bucks, their fans, the players and the organization to take a collective exhale.

Antetokounmpo’s uncertain future had loomed over the team since the start of the season, and the pressure had only intensified leading up to last Thursday’s deadline.

Antetokounmpo’s frustration with the team’s mediocrity had been growing for years. Despite winning 58, 49 and 48 games over the past three seasons, the Bucks had suffered embarrassing first-round playoff exits in each of them.

In August, the team entered an exclusive negotiation with the New York Knicks, Antetokounmpo’s first real flirtation with another franchise. Talks went nowhere but led to awkward, misaligned messaging at Milwaukee’s media day in September.

That awkwardness only heightened as the team started the season 8-12, which included a seven-game losing streak, and fell toward the bottom of the standings. Antetokounmpo’s return from injury last month could not propel the Bucks back into the playoff race, which led to him ranting postgame about the team’s roster, the young players on it, and wondering why his voice wasn’t being heard.

All of which resulted in the franchise, for the first time, listening to aggressive offers from a handful of teams at the deadline. The Bucks still never felt the urgency to part ways with Antetokounmpo, team sources told ESPN. And, after yet another tension-filled transaction cycle, the Bucks still have aspirations of salvaging the Antetokounmpo era in Milwaukee.

The question, again, is for how long. And what the next inflection point might be.

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HOPE RAN ANEW on Friday morning. Coach Doc Rivers said he could sense the relief in the team at shootaround: “You could see guys skipping around the gym.”

After the deadline passed, Antetokounmpo had posted an image from “The Wolf of Wall Street,” in which Leonardo DiCaprio’s character, under investigation for financial fraud as the CEO of his firm, tells his employees, “I’m not f—ing leaving.”

He captioned the post, “Legends don’t chase, they attract.”

The post only fired up his teammates further. Antetokounmpo even went as far as to text Portis directly with a deer emoji and a “100 sign.”

“Overstood,” Portis responded.

The Bucks won on Friday night, a 105-99 victory over the Indiana Pacers that marked Milwaukee’s first three-game winning streak of the season.

Said Rivers, who has scoffed all season at the notion of an Antetokounmpo trade:

“I’m glad that it’s over.”

In reality, though, it isn’t.

The two sides are putting discussions about the future of the franchise star on hold until the summer, sources told ESPN.

Antetokounmpo has one year remaining on a three-year extension he signed in 2023, and he has a $62.8 million player option for the 2027-28 season. He will become eligible to sign a four-year contract extension through the 2030-31 season worth up to $275 million in October. What he signals about his intentions regarding that contract will ultimately determine if his future remains in Milwaukee.

But a more pressing dilemma for the Bucks is simmering in the background.

After Antetokounmpo’s children left the court on Friday, the two-time MVP began putting himself through a pregame shooting routine for the third time this week, a routine that has grown more vigorous with each day.

When Antetokounmpo strained his right calf on Jan. 23, his second calf injury of the season, he estimated it would sideline him for four to six weeks. Although the Bucks did not release a specific timeline for his return, sources told ESPN that Antetokounmpo could be aiming to come back on the shorter end of his projected window: Four weeks from his initial injury would be Feb. 20, the team’s first game following the All-Star break.

After a largely stationary workout on Tuesday, by Friday he was working on his post-up repertoire in the paint. He slid his feet from one side of the lane to the other in front of a trainer to test his mobility.

He has said publicly that he intends to play when he is healthy, and Rivers has reiterated the same: the organization has no plans to shut him down.

Which raises the next uncomfortable question for the Bucks: Is it better to appease their star and sprint toward the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race, hoping for an unlikely run? Or is it better to shut down their star, guarantee a top draft pick, acquire more draft assets and then evaluate the landscape together this summer? Despite winning three in a row, Milwaukee is No. 12 in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Charlotte Hornets by two games for the final spot in the play-in tournament.

The Bucks’ record of 21-29 is currently the eighth worst in the league, which would give them a chance at their first lottery pick since 2016 (Thon Maker, No. 10).

If the team remains out of the play-in tournament, it is incentivized to maximize its lottery odds in what projects to be a deep 2026 draft class (the Bucks own the lesser pick between their own or that of the 14-40 New Orleans Pelicans; the better of the two picks will go to the Atlanta Hawks).

Rivers acknowledged the Bucks have had discussions about their draft pick potential.

“The first thing for us is to get Giannis playing and get healthy,” he said. “And then after that, everything will be decided.”

Antetokounmpo’s return to the lineup will undoubtedly make a struggling Bucks team more competitive. They are 15-15 with him in the lineup this season and 6-14 without him. But the more Antetokounmpo plays in the second half, the more he could harm the team’s chance at building a contender around him again by hindering the Bucks’ chances at getting a high draft pick, especially with teams around them with similar records — such as the Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies — making moves at the trade deadline to get worse in the short term.

A higher draft pick matters even more for a Bucks team with limited resources to improve its roster around Antetokounmpo. Beginning on draft night, the Bucks will have three tradable first-round picks, in 2026, 2031 and 2033.

“Everything they do is in service of Antetokounmpo,” a Western conference executive told ESPN. “It will absolutely be in their best interest to play for a draft pick, but if Giannis wants to try and make the play-in, they’ll try to make the play-in.”

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FOR NOW, THE Bucks have shown no indication they are turning the page on this season. The team is scouring the buyout market looking to bolster its roster and added Cam Thomas, who was recently waived by the Brooklyn Nets, to push toward the postseason.

“I don’t think our season’s lost,” Bucks center Myles Turner said in the locker room Friday “It’s a two-month downhill sprint after the All-Star break. Anything can happen.”

It could be possible for the Bucks to appease both interests. The Dallas Mavericks made the play-in tournament last season as the No. 10 seed, beating the Sacramento Kings before losing to the Grizzlies ahead of the first round. One month later, thanks to some lottery luck, they secured the No. 1 pick and altered the direction of their franchise by selecting Cooper Flagg.

The criteria for the Bucks and general manager Jon Horst is not just to save the team’s streak of nine consecutive playoff appearances, but also to show Antetokounmpo he has an opportunity to compete for a second championship in Milwaukee. After winning the 2021 NBA title, the Bucks have won one playoff series.

Horst has made moves to sway Antetokounmpo into signing two extensions before: in 2020, after the Bucks acquired Jrue Holiday, and again in 2023 after a blockbuster deal to acquire Damian Lillard. Last summer, the Bucks made a drastic move to waive Lillard and create the cap room to sign Turner in order to keep showing Antetokounmpo they were building a contender.

“Being on a team with Giannis all these years, it’s like an every-year thing,” said Portis, who has spent six seasons with the Bucks playing alongside Antetokounmpo. “You’ve just got to prepare for it. As soon as May comes and our season ends, it’s coming right back. It ain’t nothing you can run from, for real. It’s just what comes with it. So it’s off for now, but to be determined later.”