Mario Barrios-Ryan Garcia: Picks, predictions, more

Ryan Garcia will attempt to win his first major world title when he challenges Mario Barrios, the WBC welterweight champion, on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas (DAZN, 5:45 p.m. ET).

Garcia (24-2, 20 KOs) hasn’t secured an official victory since his eighth-round stoppage of Oscar Duarte in December 2023. He defeated Devin Haney by decision in April 2024, but the result was changed to a no-contest after Garcia tested positive for a banned substance. Last May, Garcia dropped a unanimous decision to Rolando “Rolly” Romero.

In the bout against Haney, Garcia’s explosive left hook was on full display, producing three knockdowns. That weapon, paired with his elite hand speed, remains Garcia’s greatest threat at 147 pounds.

“I hear what people are saying,” Garcia told ESPN. “They say I don’t have the skills or the ability, but I’ve won my whole life. I am not a loser. … I lost to Gervonta Davis and had an off night against Rolly Romero. So what?”

Garcia has publicly addressed his mental health, and his behavior ahead of the Haney fight overshadowed the event.

But Garcia seems to be in good shape, as he posted recently on Instagram that he was ready for the challenge.

“Here we go again. 4 days for the world championship. Let’s go, this is for everything!” he wrote.

Barrios (29-2-2, 18 KOs) will be making the fourth defense of his title. His most recent victory came against Fabian Maidana in May 2024, followed by consecutive draws against Abel Ramos in November 2024 and Manny Pacquiao last July.

Armed with a sharp jab and tested against elite competition, Barrios has the tools to neutralize Garcia’s left hand and dictate the range. If he can disrupt Garcia’s rhythm and force him into deeper waters, the champion’s experience could prove decisive.

“I give Ryan credit — he’s fast, he’s dangerous and he’s hungry,” Barrios said during a recent training session. “But I’ve been in deep waters before, and I know how to stay composed and break my opponents down. This fight is about proving that I’m not just a champion, I’m one of the best in the world at 147.”

Will Garcia finally put it all together and land the fight-changing left hook? Or will Barrios control the distance and remind the division why he holds the belt?

Former trainer and current boxing analyst Teddy Atlas, four-division champion Roy Jones Jr., former middleweight title contender Gabe Rosado and boxing trainer Aureliano Sosa break down how the fight could unfold and offer their picks.

Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Roy Jones, four-division champion, inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame

The matchup

The hook from Garcia is key. If Barrios can take Garcia’s hook, he’s got a good chance to win the fight. And if Garcia can hurt him, then Garcia has a better chance to win the fight. But I like Barrios as of late. He just got a lot of rounds in against [Manny] Pacquiao in a fight I actually thought could have gone either way, but he got the better of it. I hope that’ll give him the confidence he needs. But the thing about Ryan, he’s a great fighter. He’s a great puncher, especially with the left hook. I don’t know how much he developed his right hand, but the left hook is a really good shot and he can take anybody out with it. So, if he can hit Barrios and hurt him with the left hook and it becomes effective earlier, he has a chance. But if he doesn’t hurt Barrios early, then Barrios should beat him.

How does Garcia win this fight?

Got to hurt Barrios early and he’s got to use both hands.

How does Barrios win this fight?

Barrios has got to put pressure on Ryan. Don’t let Ryan get comfortable. Use the straight right hand or a jab and a right hand. He has to keep his right hand up to the side of his head. You know [the hook is] coming so just walk him down with your right hand by the side of your head. Don’t worry about it. Just walk him down and make him throw it as often as he can so you know when he’s going to throw it. If you let him do what he wants to do, you won’t know it’s coming. If he surprises you with it, he’s going to hurt you. But you have to make it where he throws it when you want him to throw it. You force him to keep throwing it so he can use it up.

Who wins?

I probably lean toward Barrios, but it’s a tough call.

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Gabe Rosado, former middleweight world title challenger

The matchup

I think the fight is going to go the distance. Honestly, it all really depends on what kind of Ryan Garcia is going to show up. That’s really what it comes down to.

I do like the matchup. I think Barrios could win the fight on a solid game plan using a jab. And then he has [trainer Joe] Goossen in his corner, and Goossen has trained Ryan in the past; he knows his strengths. So, I think that’s going to benefit Barrios. I like Barrios’ chances a lot, but Ryan, he has that power, he has that speed, so that could present a problem. But if Ryan’s not a hundred percent prepared, then I think I favor Barrios. It just comes down to what kind of Ryan we are going to see. You never know.

How does Garcia win this fight?

Ryan has to go back to what he did when he beat [Oscar] Duarte. He was attacking the body, he was throwing combinations, he was throwing the jab. Ryan has got to go back to that if he wants to beat Barrios. If he’s just trying to throw that one counter shot [the left hook], then I think Barrios can outwork him with a jab in combinations. Ryan can’t throw one punch at a time trying to line up that big shot. He has to throw combinations and attack the body. I can see him stopping Barrios, but I think the fight is going the distance.

How does Barrios win this fight?

Barrios has to keep that jab working. Keep the head movement to avoid those big counter shots from Ryan and just keep that jab pumping. Ryan’s a rhythm fighter, so if Barrios has the jab going and he makes Ryan reset constantly throughout the fight, then he can stop Ryan in his tracks. For me, I think the most important shot for Barrios is just keeping that jab busy to win the fight.

Who wins?

Man, it is such a tough fight. I want to say Ryan, but you just never know. That’s what makes it a good fight, is you don’t know what kind of Ryan’s showing up. It’s hard to choose Barrios because he doesn’t have a power punch. Honestly, man, I can’t give you a pick. I really don’t know. It is one of those fights.

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Teddy Atlas, boxing analysts and former trainer

A look at the fighters

To me, it’s pretty simple. There used to be a game show years ago called “What’s My Line?” where you had to guess who that person was and whatever it was they did. And then at the end they would say, “Will the real so-and-so, please stand up.” And to me, that’s what this is. It’s all about who the real Ryan Garcia is. I don’t know if he knows.

I know I look at things differently than a lot of people, but I look at Garcia through a prism of being in this business 50 years. And you can’t be in it if you don’t understand the psychological terrain as well as the physical and the technical. He’s the more talented fighter in this fight. He’s the younger fighter, obviously. He’s the fresher fighter; Barrios is getting long in the tooth. And if you went by just those things, Garcia is supposed to win this fight. He’s got faster hands, he’s more explosive.

But — and I’ve been saying this for all my years in boxing — 75% of this game is the mental side. And no matter how good Garcia is physically, unless he’s mentally right, it’s not going to matter.

Is Garcia the guy we saw and thought we were looking at a young star that could be around for a while? Or is he the guy who has been anything but that? A guy who’s been inconsistent. A guy who can give disappointing, lackluster, uninspiring performances, like he did in his last fight [against Rolando Romero]? Who is he? You’ve got to go deeper.

If your job is to train fighters, you have to understand how to get the best out of your fighter and know what the best is, what he really is capable of. Do we really know who Ryan Garcia is? I just described two Ryan Garcias. Which one is he? Will the real Ryan Garcia please stand up? If he’s right mentally, he should win this fight. Maybe he could even stop Barrios, a real game guy, multi-time world champion, very experienced, a terrific fighter, terrific warrior, but he is shopworn. If Garcia can be the explosive guy, he has a chance to stop Barrios. But breaking down this fight, you’ve got to go by what you think, not what you hope. And the guy you know more about, that you can depend on, is Barrios.

Understanding Barrios’ game

In Barrios, you’ve got a guy with a long jab. He’s technically sound. He’s going to use the left hand to set the table, for the most part. At some point, he’s going to press the fight a little bit — control the outside with the jab, then press forward. At some point, he’s going to look to go to the body. He’s going to look to engage you when he thinks it’s the right time to engage you. You can depend on what you’re going to get with Barrios. You’re going to get a guy who’s going to show up and he’s going to fight to the best of his ability for as long as he can.

How does Garcia win this fight?

He should use his left hand, use his jab, and try to take Barrios’ jab away. When a fighter depends on the jab, what do you do? You catch him with right hands over his jab. Sometimes Barrios gives you an opportunity to do that. I know that we think it is all left hooks with Ryan, but he punches with either hand.

There are two ways to nullify someone’s jab. One is to use your own, and the other is to counter with right hands to make them hesitant about using it. So those are two good places to start.

And the other thing to consider is, if you fight an older fighter, what’s one of the first things to give out in an older fighter? Their legs. So you make him use his legs. You set traps, you use your jab, you control the outside, you try to induce him to reach a little bit. Barrios will reach in with right hands to the body. I’ve seen it. See if maybe you can get him to reach on unsteady legs with the right hand to the body. If he does that, you set up the left hook. You set up traps, you set up counters, you set up opportunities. It starts with the left hand.

How does Barrios win this fight?

He has to not get hit with the big punches. He has to make sure he doesn’t walk into left hooks. To win, he doesn’t expose himself to counters, he doesn’t expose himself to traps. He doesn’t walk into any big shots. He doesn’t reach with the right hand to the body, walking into a left hook counter. He doesn’t throw the jab lightly or in a slow way, where he could be countered with a right hand. And he doesn’t leave himself open to being caught with big shots where he gets hurt. That’s it.

Who wins?

I think Garcia wins. If he shows up as a mess mentally, then Barrios could be more consistent, more deliberate, more dependable. And that could be enough. His experience and his dependability, his heart, maybe that’s enough to get him across the finish line. But I think that if Garcia is halfway together or a little more than halfway together mentally, I think he wins. I think Garcia has got a chance to hurt Barrios.

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Aureliano Sosa, trainer to Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, Chris Colbert, Reshat Mati

The matchup

I think it’s a 50/50 fight. Barrios is a very durable fighter. He’s fought a lot of experienced guys, and he showed that he could hang with experienced fighters. And then you have Ryan, a young, unpredictable, strong, heavy-handed fighter. And when he’s on his game, he’s very dangerous.

How does Barrios win this fight?

He must stay composed. He has to keep his hands up, especially the right hand. The right hand’s going to have to stay tucked in on his cheek because Ryan has that little sudden feint that makes a lot of fighters drop the right hand. They go for the fake, and then he always sneaks in that left hook when they jump that right hand. So, Barrios is going to have to be very disciplined to keep the right hand tight and apply pressure, pressure, pressure — and be a little rough.

How does Garcia win this fight?

I’ve known Ryan since he was probably 10 years old, and he’s a very, very, very special fighter. If he’s on his game and his mind is right, he’s a hard kid to beat. He’s fast, very powerful with his hands, and if he catches you, it’s night-night. But the most important thing about Ryan is that he has to be mentally right. If he is, he’s a very dangerous guy.

Who wins?

It’ll be a good fight, but I have to go with Ryan. I got a funny feeling that Barrios is not going to keep that right hand tight, that he’s going to get clipped with that hook.