What we learned in Duke's win over Michigan

With less than 45 days until the Final Four, men’s college basketball fans were given a preview of potential national semifinal matchups in Indianapolis.

The top four teams in the latest AP poll headlined a loaded Saturday slate, with No. 3 Duke and No. 4 Arizona taking down No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Houston, respectively. It was the first time the Nos. 1 and 2 teams lost on the same day since Feb. 8, 2025.

What did the results teach us about each contender? And how should all four be ranked coming out of the day? ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break it down.

What we learned about Duke

Duke is as good as any team in college basketball. While its record and ranking already reflected that, it hadn’t really yet been considered among the top of the national championship contenders this season. Michigan, Arizona, UConn (at times) and Houston (more recently) have all been in that conversation. Now, Duke is too, placing the Blue Devils squarely in the mix to earn the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday.

If there was any doubt, Duke’s Cameron Boozer is the clear National Player of the Year favorite. Michigan senior Yaxel Lendeborg outscored the freshman in the first half, but Boozer put Duke’s offense on his back when it mattered. Boozer finished with 18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, and he scored seven straight Duke points in the final minutes to give the Blue Devils the edge.

Saturday’s outing was about more than Boozer, though. Blue Devils guard Caleb Foster hit some big shots from the perimeter and took care of the ball. Patrick Ngongba II made an impact at both ends. Nikolas Khamenia gave Duke some really good minutes off the bench. Isaiah Evans didn’t shoot well, but the confidence he has on the offensive end didn’t waver.

Duke’s offense isn’t as explosive as that of other contenders. But when the defense plays like it did on Saturday, the Blue Devils don’t need to score 80 or 90 points. That’s what could separate them come March. — Borzello

---

What we learned about Michigan

Essentially all the ingredients that have made Michigan the most dominant team in college basketball this season — all the things that allowed the Wolverines to have a comfortable win at Purdue earlier this week — weren’t there on Saturday.

The biggest eyebrow raiser came up front. Michigan’s frontcourt has been unparalleled, with coach Dusty May relying on jumbo lineups to bully and overpower teams. On Saturday, the Wolverines struggled against an opposing frontcourt for maybe the first time all season. They entered the game averaging 41 paint points per game and had an average rebound margin of nearly 10 boards. Duke outscored the Wolverines 34-24 in the paint and outrebounded them 41-28. It was the first time this season Michigan was outrebounded by double digits.

Michigan might have been able to overcome its lack of production on the interior had it shot the way it did against the Boilermakers, against whom it went 13-for-23 from 3. But the Wolverines were just 6-for-25 from beyond the arc versus Duke, making only one 3-pointer from the 9:40 mark of the first half until the 3:50 left in the second. Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett and L.J. Cason combined to hit two treys.

It’s not a loss that will truly impact their perception as the favorites to win the national championship — on another day, those open 3s fall, Aday Mara doesn’t get in foul trouble and so on — but what looked like a waltz to a national title has hit a bump in the road. — Borzello

What we learned about Arizona

The Wildcats can still beat any team in America, and they proved as much in one of college basketball’s most hostile environments against one of its best teams.

Arizona had been nearly flawless until last week, suffering its first losses of the season at Kansas and then to Texas Tech. Despite that two-game slide, the Wildcats have been one of the nation’s most consistent contenders for four months. More importantly, they have excelled in the crucial moments that define a season, and proved that once again Saturday.

Arizona’s defense was excellent after halftime, when Houston struggled to score. The Cougars didn’t score for nearly eight minutes in the second half, their longest scoring drought of the season. Jaden Bradley made big shots down the stretch and finished with 17 points. Anthony Dell’Orso had 22 off the bench, and Ivan Kharchenkov added 16 points. The Wildcats shot 25% from beyond the arc Saturday and failed to extend the lead by more than 10 points. — Medcalf

---

What we learned about Houston

This was the type of battle Kelvin Sampson’s Houston teams seemed to enjoy, but the Cougars once again suffered a scoring drought that they couldn’t overcome.

Houston went scoreless for nearly eight minutes in the second half against Arizona. And though the Wildcats’ defense played a significant role in that drought, the Cougars can’t expect to cut down the nets in April if they can’t get a much-needed bucket. They were also outscored 21-9 in the last 11 minutes of their 70-67 loss at Iowa State on Monday.

Do they have the offensive output to trade punches with the best teams in America? The NCAA tournament is decided by playmakers and stars, and the Cougars have them, but their inability to overcome a pair of ugly stretches in back-to-back games is concerning. This week’s losses suggest that unless star freshman Kingston Flemings can create shots in clutch moments, they might be vulnerable to more droughts at the most critical juncture of the season. — Medcalf

How would you rank these teams now?

Borzello: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Houston.

1. Duke: Can I really put any other team at the top? Duke just beat Michigan on a neutral court, and proved it doesn’t need the most explosive offense in the country to beat an elite team. The Blue Devils have just two losses all season: by one to Texas Tech in a game they led by 17, and by three to North Carolina in a game they led by 13. Saturday showed they can close against a high-level opponent.

2. Arizona: Tommy Lloyd’s team has an incredible set of wins, adding the victory at Houston to a group that already included victories at UConn, over Florida in Las Vegas and over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It was one of the more gritty, tough-minded wins we’ve seen from any team all season. No Koa Peat, no Dwayne Aristode and a less-than-100% Brayden Burries with Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka in foul trouble. That they were able to get a win shows this team has a certain level of toughness past Arizona teams haven’t quite possessed.

3. Michigan: The Wolverines are still arguably the favorites to win the national championship, despite the loss. The fact they were right in the game in the final minute despite getting dominated in the paint and missing a dozen open 3s is evidence of their ability. But they were certainly knocked off their pedestal, and questions will be raised about where they go for offense late in games.

4. Houston: A two-loss week for the Cougars. What most concerns me after this stretch is how dependent they are on their defense forcing turnovers. When they can’t get easy points or put teams on the backfoot, they rely so heavily on the shotmaking of their guards. Their guards are elite, so it’s not necessarily a dealbreaker, but it’s worth monitoring. Iowa State and Arizona combined to turn the ball over just eight times against Houston, and allowed a combined three points off turnovers; the Cougars entered the week forcing nearly 15 turnovers per game and scoring 19 points off turnovers.

---

Medcalf: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston.

1. Duke: The Blue Devils made the plays they had to make down the stretch of a close, incredible game — one that could set the stage for a rematch in March. They proved that they’re the best team in America right now. They are also led by the best player in the country with Cameron Boozer. Hard to make a case for anything but the top spot for them.

2. Michigan: The Wolverines stayed close throughout the loss to Duke until the 3s stopped falling and they couldn’t outduel the Blue Devils in those precious final minutes.

3. Arizona: Even though they were shorthanded without Koa Peat, the Wildcats were the better team against Houston. Jaden Bradley made big plays down the stretch that helped the Wildcats overcome another outing with limited impact from the 3-point line. But what really stood out was a defensive effort that fueled Houston’s drought of 10-plus minutes without a field goal in the second half.

4. Houston: The Cougars squandered two opportunities this week to prove that they belong with the other national title contenders on this list — if Iowa State was here, I’d put Houston after the Cyclones. The Cougars were up by double digits against Iowa State but fell apart in the final minutes. They also couldn’t find a shot for most of the second half in the loss to Arizona, ruining their second opportunity to make a strong case for a spot on the top line come Selection Sunday.