Who will start at quarterback for the Vikings, Browns and Jets? We made QB1 predictions for all 32 teams

The 2026 NFL quarterback market is about to open up, and the future at the game’s most important position hangs in the balance for several teams. And with only one surefire first-rounder in the 2026 NFL draft, plenty of teams will have to seek a new QB via free agency or a trade — or stick with the guy they have right now.

The Vikings must decide if they want a quarterback to come in to replace, compete with or back up J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals must determine whether Kyler Murray has played his last snap with the team. Do the Colts want to combine an injured Daniel Jones with a short-term solution? And to whom might the Dolphins and the Jets turn for hope?

So, who will be the quarterback for each team? I tried to read the tea leaves and predict how it will all shake out. In this case, I am specifically predicting who will be the Week 1 starter for next season. That means even the Chiefs — with Patrick Mahomes coming off an injury — are very much a question mark here. Let’s dive into the 32 potential Week 1 starters for 2026.

Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Looking for someone new

Predicted 2026 starter: Kyler Murray

I wonder if the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold at quarterback will be good for the reclamation quarterback market. And frankly, Murray is a much less daunting proposition now than Darnold was when he signed with the Vikings two years ago.

Though Murray’s play dropped off last season, he’s only one year removed from a 63.4 QBR in 2024, the ninth best that season. That was his second top-10 QBR campaign; he ranked seventh in 2021.

Cleveland’s eternal search for a quarterback could lead it to Murray, especially with the draft lacking top-flight QB prospects beyond Fernando Mendoza. Murray is due $42.5 million in cash, which hovers around fair value for one season, especially since he’d be under contract for non-guaranteed years at similar prices in 2027 and 2028. Cleveland is tight on cap space (due in large part to quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s contract), so I would expect the Cardinals to eat some of Murray’s 2026 money in exchange for a Browns draft pick.

Some might clamor to give Shedeur Sanders more development time, but I think that would be a mistake. A fifth-round pick whose 18.9 QBR would have been by far the worst in the league had he played enough to qualify ought to be considered the longest of shots, so the Browns should be pursuing other quarterback options.

Despite Cleveland boasting a similarly strong defense, it would be overly optimistic to compare the 2026 Browns to the 2025 Seahawks. Cleveland is in much worse shape than Seattle was a year ago because its offensive roster is completely lacking — it needs an entire O-line! — even if the Browns acquire Murray and he regains his previous form. But remember, this could be a multiyear arrangement, as Murray has three years left on his contract. It’s a bet worth making for the Browns.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Malik Willis

Let me be the millionth person to connect the Packers’ backup quarterback to the Dolphins, but I think Miami is Willis’ most likely landing spot.

Miami’s new brain trust consists of two former Packers in general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and coach Jeff Hafley. While I think NFL coaches and front office personnel dramatically overemphasize the importance of previously working with a player, there’s no denying it plays a huge role in personnel decisions. Therefore, I think it absolutely increases the probability Willis ends up in Miami.

Willis’ results in his limited time across 2024 and 2025 were incredible. He posted an 86.3 QBR in that span, a plus-7% completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats), zero interceptions (three fumbles, though) and 9.2 yards per dropback. He scrambled on 13% of his dropbacks and had 17 designed rushes.

But he started only three games, so the Dolphins would be basing their 2026 starting quarterback decision on an extremely small sample size. And those three games came under coach Matt LaFleur, an elite offensive designer. So, there certainly is risk. But there’s also upside.

The Dolphins are hamstrung at quarterback and in terms of cap space due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s extension. Tagovailoa was benched toward the end of last season. But Willis is the type of player they should make an exception for, and signing him would be worth a chance in the quest to find their quarterback of the future.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Kirk Cousins

The Vikings managed 14 wins in 2024 with a quarterback (Darnold) who ranked only 14th in QBR. While they won’t always have a defense as dominant as that team had, I have to imagine Minnesota is hankering for palatable quarterback play.

J.J. McCarthy’s performance last season did not indicate he could deliver it. Given how Minnesota let its known quantity in Darnold walk out the door in favor of McCarthy, I suspect coach Kevin O’Connell will want to go back to known, solid production. And Cousins represents that. The veteran quarterback was playing some of the best ball of his career with the Vikings in 2023 before suffering an Achilles injury. Cousins wasn’t the same with Atlanta, though he did play well at the end of last season.

The Falcons are expected to release Cousins. Once they do, the Vikings might take him back.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Spencer Rattler

The Jets were the hardest team for me to predict in this exercise. There are so many feasible candidates.

New York certainly could be a landing place for a non-Mendoza rookie quarterback, and it would make sense for the Jets to be in the Willis sweepstakes. If they want a stable veteran, perhaps the Jets would look at Cousins or Derek Carr, though neither would be the necessary long-term solution. Or New York could contemplate a few trade candidates, with Mac Jones, Tanner McKee and Rattler among them.

Though he ultimately gave way to rookie Tyler Shough, Rattler was solid last season in New Orleans. He recorded a 50.3 QBR and a plus-3% completion percentage over expected, and his 9% off-target rate was the lowest among all QBs with at least 100 pass attempts. The 2024 fifth-round pick is entering his third season, so he could still improve. And Rattler likely would cost less on the trade market than Jones, as well.

Early-season injury stand-in

Predicted 2026 starter: Gardner Minshew

The Colts are in an interesting bind, having found success with Daniel Jones last season but:

• Not having him under contract for 2026 or beyond.

• Needing a stopgap solution even if they do bring Jones back after he suffered an Achilles injury in December.

Let’s start with the first point. I suspect the team wants to bring Jones back but would likely prefer to sign him to a multiyear deal considering he is unlikely to play until late 2026 at the earliest. But the Colts have some leverage. As much as they might need Jones, they also offer him a better path to starting again in a situation where he’s had more success than anywhere else. Indianapolis would probably offer him more money than anyone else due to that success.

But if the Colts bring Jones back, they’ll need another QB to start the season. And they would want it to be someone they can win with in the short and medium term — but probably not someone who would cost too much or to whom they would have to commit beyond 2026.

Enter Minshew. The journeyman had more success playing for Shane Steichen in 2023 than at any other point in his career. Steichen got much more out of Minshew — who recorded a 60.4 QBR that season — than he has out of Joe Flacco (50.0) or Anthony Richardson Sr. (44.4). That 2023 earned Minshew $15 million fully guaranteed from the Raiders the next offseason, but it went so badly in Vegas that he played for the Chiefs for just $1.2 million last season. It was feared that Minshew had torn his ACL in December, but he did not.

Because Minshew’s star has fallen, he would be a cheap option for the Colts to pair with second-year QB Riley Leonard while they wait for Jones to heal.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Marcus Mariota

Of course, this hinges on the recovery timeline of Patrick Mahomes, who had surgery in December to repair two ligaments in his left knee. Mahomes has indicated he wants to be back for Week 1, and perhaps that will happen. But any prediction about his Week 1 status is just a guess, so I imagine that the Chiefs would want to be cautious with Mahomes, given his importance to the franchise.

If that is the case, they’d want a reliable backup who can ideally win a few games while Mahomes finishes up his recovery. I believe Mariota fits the bill.

The 32-year-old stood in for Jayden Daniels for eight starts in Washington last season and was capable, with a 50.2 QBR. He has a long history of being solid, which is essentially what Kansas City needs — a player who can keep the team afloat in Mahomes’ absence but is willing to be a backup and won’t be overly expensive.

Decent bet

Predicted 2026 starter: Jacoby Brissett

The Cardinals don’t have to move on from Murray, and with a new regime coming in, maybe they won’t. But the vibes from last season pointed to a quarterback change, and Brissett is the most likely Week 1 starter, even if only as a bridge after starting 12 games in 2025. Murray is currently slated to make $42.5 million in cash, per OverTheCap.com, so if the Cardinals are able to trade him, they would save all or part of that by turning to the much cheaper Brissett (due $5.4 million in cash).

Though Brissett averaged 280.5 passing yards in his starts last season, that number was more an indication of how often he passed than his true efficiency, as his 41.2 QBR was well below average. But he can serve as a short-term fix. The Cardinals could draft Alabama’s Ty Simpson — perhaps late in the first round or in the second — and Brissett could start the 2026 season before yielding to the rookie.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Michael Penix Jr.

Penix suffered a torn ACL in November, so his status for the season opener is in question. Also, what kind of player will the Falcons get when he returns to the field? Penix was inconsistent last season, producing a QBR of 83 or higher in four of his nine games … and a 31 or lower in four others.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Aaron Rodgers

I don’t think Rodgers’ return is a foregone conclusion, but Mike McCarthy’s introductory news conference pushed me to thinking it will happen. When asked if he wanted Rodgers back, McCarthy said, “I mean, definitely. I don’t see why you wouldn’t.”

Despite McCarthy’s comment, there are plenty of reasons the Steelers might not want Rodgers back. He’s a 42-year-old quarterback who was last an above-average starter in 2021 (to be fair, he did win MVP that season). And Rodgers also must decide whether he wants to play football in 2026.

But I suspect the Steelers won’t have the appetite to rebuild or take a flier on an unknown QB. So they’ll try to re-create the Packers of yesteryear, with Rodgers and McCarthy at the helm. Rodgers recorded a 44.4 QBR with the Steelers last season (23rd best). He continued to excel at turnover avoidance, but it came in conjunction with short, safe throws that weren’t that productive. Rodgers’ 2.59-second average time to throw was the fastest in the league, and 76% of his pass attempts were under 10 air yards, higher than for any other quarterback.

Pittsburgh can rely on its defense, and with a smart addition or two, things could break right when coupled with a turnover-averse Rodgers — even if his upside is severely limited at this point of his career. Perhaps that’s why they aren’t ready to tear it all down just yet.

Locked in

Predicted 2026 starter: Lamar Jackson

After winning the MVP in 2023 and almost winning it in 2024, Jackson had a down season in 2025 in which he missed a few games and wasn’t quite himself when he played. Now Jackson will be in a new system under offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, but there should be high confidence that he can return to form in 2026.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Josh Allen

The Bills have it better than perhaps anyone else at the game’s most important position, as Allen would arguably be the QB1 in a leaguewide quarterback redraft. Allen is coming off a “down” year in which he still got a couple of MVP votes. He finished only seventh in QBR, but his receiving options weren’t great. If Allen is on the field, the Bills have a good chance to win any game, no matter the opponent.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Bryce Young

The pendulum on how much the Panthers should believe in Young continued to swing back and forth in 2025, as it has for his entire career. On one hand, Young led the Panthers to the playoffs and looked quite improved at times. But he also had his share of down moments. He ended the season with a 47.6 QBR (22nd best) and only 5.7 yards per dropback — nothing to write home about.

He showed enough to be the starter again in 2026 and have his fifth-year option picked up in 2027. But the Panthers should be hesitant to commit to Young beyond that until he shows more growth.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Caleb Williams

Williams took a big step in his second season and delivered some truly unforgettable throws during Chicago’s improbable run to the divisional round of the playoffs. There are still accuracy questions — Williams ranked last among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks in off-target rate and completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats). But the Bears know they can win with Williams at the helm.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Joe Burrow

A toe injury derailed more than half of Burrow’s 2025 campaign, helping extend the Bengals’ frustrating three-year streak of missing the playoffs. If Cincinnati can get a healthy Burrow and improve its defense to support him, the Bengals will be back in the postseason.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Dak Prescott

Prescott’s exceptional play last season was overshadowed by the Cowboys missing the playoffs. He ranked fifth in QBR and third in completion percentage over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats) despite playing with the lead on only 26% of his snaps. If the Cowboys’ defense can improve to merely average and Prescott maintains his 2025 level of play, Dallas should easily return to the postseason.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Bo Nix

Losing Nix to injury in the divisional playoffs was a brutal blow for the Broncos, who could have (should have?) advanced to the Super Bowl otherwise. That was especially true because Nix finished the season strong. Though he was 15th in QBR for the season (58.3), he registered a 66.3 from Week 13 on (the equivalent of ranking seventh). I previously believed Nix was good enough to win with, but he showed signs that he could ascend to become a player the Broncos could win because of.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Jared Goff

Like the rest of his team in 2025, Goff didn’t reach his previous level of play, when Detroit’s offense was at the top of the league. But considering that he played behind an offensive line that quietly ranked 31st in pass block win rate last season, Goff’s 18th-ranked QBR starts to become more understandable. He, and the Lions, certainly can get back to previous form in 2026.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Jordan Love

Love took a step forward in 2025, finishing third in QBR behind Drake Maye and Brock Purdy thanks to his ability to avoid major mistakes. Love committed only eight turnovers last season and took sacks at a 4.3% rate (seventh best). If the Packers continue to get that level of performance from Love, they will be contenders.

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Predicted 2026 starter: C.J. Stroud

The results weren’t pretty the last time we saw Stroud — he threw four interceptions in a playoff loss to the Patriots. But ball security was a strength for most of 2025 and Stroud was mostly solid, especially considering that Houston ranked 30th in pass block win rate. We still don’t quite know Stroud’s long-term path, but he’s locked in for 2026.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Trevor Lawrence

The second half of 2025 finally saw Lawrence become the player who had been promised since he entered the league in 2021. Lawrence ranked fifth in the league in QBR after Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye — and from Week 11 on he moved up to third. Normally I’m wary of strictly looking at second-half splits to project forward, but there’s a reasonable explanation in this case, as it was his first year in coach Liam Coen’s system. Jaguars fans have the right to be bullish on Lawrence for 2026 and beyond.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Fernando Mendoza

Is it too early to call this locked in? I don’t think so.

The Raiders need a quarterback badly. The Heisman Trophy winner looks like he fits the bill. And most important: There’s no other quarterback in the draft who seems particularly close to his tier. Even now, Mendoza’s odds of being selected first by the Raiders are -20000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Justin Herbert

Herbert has long been held in a slightly higher regard than his production would indicate, and the pairing with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel (and, ideally, two healthy tackles) should give us the opportunity to finally see Herbert perform with a favorable supporting cast. This could be the year we see Herbert’s elite ceiling.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Matthew Stafford

Stafford has already announced he’ll be back for 2026. After winning MVP last season, he and the Rams will surely revisit a contract that currently underpays him, but it’s hard to imagine the two sides not working it out. The expectation for Stafford continues to be excellence, as long as he is healthy.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Drake Maye

Sure, things were undeniably rough for Maye in the Super Bowl (perhaps due to injury). But Maye was exceptional in 2025 and was the league’s Most Valuable Player in my view. New England is set for years to come and can go all-in in 2026 knowing it has an elite starter on a rookie contract.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Tyler Shough

Shough’s immediate success was a pleasant surprise last season. The numbers weren’t overwhelming — 21st in QBR, 16th in completion percentage over expectation, 12th in turnover rate and 18th in yards per dropback — but they were strong enough over nine starts to show his NFL potential. The Saints might have found themselves a quarterback — and outside the first round, too.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Jaxson Dart

As poor as 2025 was recordwise for the 4-13 Giants, it gave the franchise optimism going forward. The most important part of that hope is Dart, who finished 17th in QBR as a rookie (despite mostly being without emerging star receiver Malik Nabers) and lifted the team when he played. New York’s offense averaged 0.05 EPA per play when Dart was on the field, roughly the same as the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

If Dart can take another leap in Year 2 and the rest of the offense’s core — Nabers, offensive tackle Andrew Thomas and second-year running back Cam Skattebo — can also stay healthy, the Giants’ improvement could happen quick.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Jalen Hurts

Hurts is just a year removed from being a Super Bowl MVP quarterback, but his stock has fallen after a poor 2025 season in which he ranked only 20th in QBR. If he doesn’t improve in 2026, will we be putting him in a different category in this exercise next year? Given the Eagles’ track record, I bet so.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Brock Purdy

Purdy is coming off an excellent 2025 season … when he was on the field. The nine games he did play were stellar, producing a 72.8 QBR that ranked second only to Maye’s. And when Purdy was active, the 49ers often looked like the best offense in football (especially when they weren’t playing the Seahawks). If Purdy can stay healthy, the 49ers will be contenders again.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Sam Darnold

Even after a second straight 14-win campaign and leading the Seahawks to the Super Bowl title, it’s still reasonable to ask which Darnold the Seahawks will get going forward. He was legitimately lights-out in the first half of the season but then was one of the least efficient QBs in the second half. He finished somewhere between good enough and actually good in the playoffs.

In the end, Darnold finished 19th in QBR, but the Seahawks clearly feel pretty good about him heading into 2026 considering how last season turned out.

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Predicted 2026 starter: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield started 2025 hot but cooled off to finish 12th in QBR and with a minus-2% completion rate over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Mayfield can play at a good enough level that the Buccaneers can win the division and then some with support around him. And given his cost — $40 million in 2026 — it makes sense for the Buccaneers to remain on the same trajectory at quarterback.