Champions League round of 16 predictions: Real Madrid over Man City?

The path to the 2025-26 Champions League final is now clear, and some of Europe’s biggest clubs are locked on a collision course between now and the final in Budapest’s Puskas Arena following a blockbuster round of 16 draw. Real Madrid will face Manchester City yet again in a huge doubleheader next month, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain renew their rivalry with Chelsea, who beat them in last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final.

Both those ties are in the Silver Path, where they are joined by Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Liverpool and Galatasary, with only one of those sides making it to the final.

The Blue Path is less stacked with past winners, with the finalist coming from a bracket that includes Barcelona, Newcastle, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Bodo/Glimt, Sporting CP, Atletico Madrid and Tottenham.

The round of 16 first-leg ties are less than two weeks away, so how will they all play out?

First legs will be played March 10-11; second legs will be played March 17-18

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SILVER PATH

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea

The European champions against the world champions and two clubs who built a fierce rivalry during the 2000s and 2010s, so this matchup has the potential to be explosive.

PSG have been unimpressive this season, certainly compared to last year, though Luis Enrique’s team should have Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele and midfielder Fabian Ruiz back from injury for this tie. It would mean only keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma — now at Manchester City — will be absent from PSG’s strongest team last season. That group of players will want revenge on Chelsea for the FIFA Club World Cup final defeat in New Jersey last summer, and with coach Liam Rosenior facing a huge step-up against Luis Enrique, this tie should go in PSG’s favor.

Chelsea have talent, but they are not at the same level as PSG and will find it tough over two legs.

Winners: PSG

Galatasaray vs. Liverpool

Victor Osimhen’s penalty in Istanbul last September sealed a 1-0 league phase win for Galatasaray against Liverpool, which was one of four straight defeats in all competitions for Arne Slot’s side.

But while the Turkish club are strong at home — they beat Juventus 5-2 on home turf in the first-leg of their playoff tie — they have a woeful record on their European travels and have only won once in England (against Manchester United in November, 2023).

Despite Liverpool’s inconsistency this season, they will be strong favorites to progress from this tie if they avoid a significant defeat in Turkey. That said, Osimhen will be a threat and Galatasaray’s strong representation of former Premier League players (Leroy Sane, Ilkay Gundogan, Mario Lemina) might help them overcome their previous difficulties in England.

Winners: Liverpool

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

These two have met in each of the past four seasons and also played out a league phase tie in Madrid in December, so there will be no surprises when they clash again for a place in the quarterfinals.

Both City and Real will regard a round of 16 exit as calamitous due to the respective ambitions of each club, but one will have to suffer defeat and the tie is too close to call. Historically, City and Real have beaten each other five times, with five draws too, and this tie will come down to which of them can handle the other team’s superstars better.

Kylian Mbappe has seven goals in seven games against City, while Erling Haaland has three goals in six appearances against Real, but none in his past four games against them.

Haaland usually finds it tough against Antonio Rudiger. If that battle goes in Real’s favor again, Real will go through.

Winners: Real Madrid

Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich

Atalanta spared Italian football the ignominy of having no teams in the round of 16 for the first time in Champions League history by overturning a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund to reach this stage. But Bundesliga leaders Bayern will be a totally different prospect for Raffaele Palladino’s team, and although Atalanta have the capacity to hurt Vincent Kompany’s side, it is difficult see them continuing to fly the Italian flag into the quarterfinals.

Bayern are strong in all areas, and the goal threat of Harry Kane has now been added to by the return from injury of Jamal Musiala. They have also shown themselves to be ruthless against weaker opposition in the knockout stages, and they will expect to comfortably progress through this tie.

Winners: Bayern Munich

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BLUE PATH

Newcastle United vs. Barcelona

Marcus Rashford’s spectacular double sealed a 2-1 win for Barcelona at St James’ Park in the league phase last September, which means Hansi Flick’s team will have fond memories of their most recent trip to England’s north-east.

With Newcastle missing several key players due to injury, including Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento, the odds are stacked against Eddie Howe’s side in this tie. And although Barca’s defensive high line could be vulnerable against the pace and intent of Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga, the Spanish side should have way too much for Newcastle over the two legs.

With the second leg at Camp Nou, Newcastle need a healthy first leg lead, though that looks a tall order at this stage.

Winners: Barcelona

Atletico Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham and Atletico have met just once before, with Spurs emerging as 5-1 winners in the 1963 European Cup-Winners’ Cup final. But although the Premier League side have recent European pedigree following their Europa League triumph last season, their dismal domestic performances — Spurs are yet to win a league game in 2026 — have put them in relegation danger, and they should be no match for Diego Simeone’s team.

On paper, this looks like a heavyweight matchup, but it could be the most one-sided tie of the round. Atletico are not the formidable opponent they once were, but with Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez up front and Antoine Griezmann still performing at the age of 34, it’s difficult to see anything other than an Atleti win.

Winners: Atletico Madrid

Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP

The Bodø/Glimt fairy tale continues as Kjetil Knutsen’s team have a great chance of making it to the quarterfinals after avoiding a tie against Manchester City — whom they beat 3-1 last month — and ending up with Sporting.

Already this year, Bodø have beaten City and Inter in Norway and claimed victory away to Atletico Madrid and Inter in their round of 16 second leg at San Siro. Jens Petter Hauge, Kasper Hogh and Hakon Evjen have been stars of the tournament so far, and they will have no fear against Sporting.

One note of caution: Sporting did seal a top-eight finish in the league phase and defeated PSG in that section, which makes them every bit a dangerous outsider. But the momentum — and their plastic pitch in the Arctic Circle — is with Bodø, so back them to win.

Winners: Bodø/Glimt

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal

Leverkusen have bounced back well under coach Kasper Hjulmand this season following the disastrous two-game reign of former Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag, but they remain outside the Champions League spots in the Bundesliga. And although they have talented goal scorers in the shape of Patrik Schick and set-piece specialist Alex Grimaldo, Leverkusen have lost the bulk of Xabi Alonso’s 2023-24 title winners and are unlikely to trouble Premier League leaders Arsenal.

This is a good tie for Mikel Arteta’s side, and they could wrap up with a strong performance in the first leg in Germany. Having avoided the much tougher Silver Path, the Gunners can confidently look ahead to the semifinals at least with a quarterfinal against Bodø/Glimt or Sporting awaiting the winners of this tie.

Winners: Arsenal

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PREDICTING THE REST OF THE TOURNAMENT FROM HERE

With the Silver and Blue Paths giving a clear route to the final, who will be in Budapest vying for the Champions League title at the end of May?

The Blue Path seems destined to have a Barcelona-Arsenal semifinal, but with the Gunners likely to be locked in a draining Premier League run-in with Manchester City, I’m tipping Barcelona to have the edge and reach the final.

The Silver Path is much harder to call with so many 50-50 round of 16 ties, but based on the predictions above, I am going for a Real Madrid v Bayern Munich semi, with Bayern Munich emerging victorious to face Barca in the final.

Once again, a Clasico final between Real and Barca will be so near, yet so far away!