NHL playoff watch: Projections for the Oilers' postseason path

For two straight seasons, the Edmonton Oilers have fallen just short of winning the Stanley Cup, losing in the Cup Final to the Florida Panthers both times.

What does their projected playoff path this season tell us about their chances of finishing the story this spring?

The Oilers’ march to the playoffs continues on Friday with a game against the St. Louis Blues (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu). But with the Blues far from any realistic playoff shot, let’s look beyond that contest.

If the season had ended last night, the Oilers would face the Vegas Golden Knights in the Pacific Division’s No. 2/3 matchup in the first round. Stathletes projects that particular pairing as the fifth-most-likely Round 1 series, at 36.8%. A matchup against the Anaheim Ducks has a 17.4% chance, and a series in which the Oilers take on the wild-card Utah Mammoth has a 16.4% chance.

From a larger perspective, Stathletes gives the Oilers the second-best chances among Western teams of reaching the conference finals (37.3%), reaching the Cup Final (18.6%) and winning the Cup (9.2%), all of which are lower than the projected chances for the Colorado Avalanche.

In terms of likely first-round playoff opponents, the Oilers are:

• 2-0 against the Golden Knights, with two games left to play

• 1-1 against the Ducks, with one game left to play

• 1-0 against the Mammoth, with two games left to play

Edmonton was blown out (9-1) by Colorado in November but won 4-3 on Tuesday, with an April 13 matchup potentially serving as a conference finals preview. The Oilers lost all three games against the Dallas Stars this season, including on Thursday night; they also lost all three games this season to the Minnesota Wild. Obviously, the hope for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and friends is that their previous playoff experience gives them an edge over those opponents should they face off again.

Every team has fewer than 20 games left before the regular season concludes April 16, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch every day. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Friday’s schedule
Thursday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Buffalo Sabres vs. WC1 Detroit Red Wings
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Boston Bruins
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 San Jose Sharks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Vegas Golden Knights vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Friday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders, 7 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)

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Thursday’s scoreboard

San Jose Sharks 4, Boston Bruins 2
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Anaheim Ducks 4
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Florida Panthers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (OT)
Calgary Flames 5, New Jersey Devils 4
St. Louis Blues 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Dallas Stars 7, Edmonton Oilers 2
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Colorado Avalanche 5, Seattle Kraken 1

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 106.9
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 107.6
Next game: vs. CAR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105.1
Next game: vs. SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: @ DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 49.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98.4
Next game: @ WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 77%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 93.5
Next game: vs. ANA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 51.5%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ SEA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 1.2%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: @ BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 21

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Metro Division

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 111.0
Next game: @ TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 99.7
Next game: @ UTA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 59.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 99.7
Next game: vs. LA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 74.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97.1
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 81%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 92.1
Next game: vs. CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 7.3%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 78.2
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18

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Central Division

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 124.3
Next game: @ WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116.1
Next game: vs. DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 109.3
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 91.9
Next game: vs. PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: @ EDM (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 12.7%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 79.4
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 5.9%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 78.2
Next game: vs. EDM (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 76.0
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 27

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Pacific Division

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 94.6
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 91.9
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 95.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 89.5
Next game: @ STL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 93.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 88.5
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 61.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 15%
Tragic number: 35

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: @ NYI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 19%
Tragic number: 35

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 74.4
Next game: @ NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 60.6
Next game: vs. SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 23

*Note: The Maple Leafs’ pick belongs to the Bruins, unless it lands in the top five.