WBC 2026: Reranking USA, D.R., Japan and all remaining teams

Pool play in the 2026 World Baseball Classic is officially over, and we’re headed to the quarterfinals.

The opening round of the tournament was not without excitement — or surprises. Team USA, the favorite to win it all with a deep, star-studded lineup, almost didn’t advance to the quarterfinals after a loss to Italy left its fate to be decided by the final matchup between Italy and Mexico. Italy won to go undefeated in pool play — allowing the U.S. to move on — while Mexico was eliminated.

Canada also surprised in the early games, going 3-1 and beating Puerto Rico to win Pool A and advance to its first quarterfinals since the tournament’s inception in 2006.

How do the final eight squads stack up against each other? And how have their rankings changed since the tournament began? As the event moves forward to its elimination rounds, ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, Alden Gonzalez, Jorge Castillo and David Schoenfield rerank the quarterfinal field and break down what we’ve learned about each country’s team so far.

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1. Dominican Republic

Pre-WBC rank: 2 | Title odds: +230

Next opponent: Korea (Fri. at 6:30 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team D.R.: That the players can mash, and they know how to celebrate. The Dominican team has accumulated a tournament-high 13 home runs in their four games, with five of its players — Junior Caminero, Oneil Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. — all hitting a couple. Upon impact, they all flip their bats, yell, gesture toward each other, salute the fans, take their sweet time rounding the bases, then come into a dugout filled with props to continue their celebration. D.R. manager Albert Pujols said this is the best energy he has been around in all his years in the big leagues, and it’s easy to see why. His team is stuffed with superstars, but the scariest part? They’re playing loose. — Gonzalez

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2. United States

Pre-WBC rank: 1 | Title odds: +140

Next opponent: Canada (Fri. at 8 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team USA: Baseball is an unrelenting game. Talent does not always equate to winning, and the tumult Team USA faced after losing to Italy scared the team straight. The Americans know they can hit as well as any team left in the WBC. With Logan Webb, Paul Skenes and Nolan McLean lined up on the mound, they’ve got the best trio of starters. Now is the time for manager Mark DeRosa to dispense with trying to get everyone on the roster in the game and focus on aggressively deploying his treasure trove of resources. Canny managing can win a tournament, and to beat Canada (and potentially the D.R. in the semifinals and Japan in the finals), the United States is going to need the best of DeRosa as much as its players. — Passan

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3. Japan

Pre-WBC rank: 3 | Title odds: +450

Next opponent: Venezuela (Sat. at 9 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team Japan: Japan went 4-0 in pool play, but it wasn’t easy — other than a 13-0 blowout of Chinese Taipei. Japan rallied late to beat Korea 8-6, trailed Australia through six innings, and was held scoreless by Czechia’s amateur pitchers until the eighth inning. Shohei Ohtani has done his part, going 5-for-9 with two home runs in three games, but remember: He’s not pitching. With the competition now getting much tougher, the offense can’t count on rallying against non-MLB pitchers. We’ll see how the rotation lines up, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Yusei Kikuchi are lined up to pitch the quarters and semifinals, which could leave 23-year-old Hiroto Takahashi to start a potential championship game. — Schoenfield

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4. Venezuela

Pre-WBC rank: 4 | Title odds: +900

Next opponent: Japan (Sat. at 9 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team Venezuela: This team knows how to fight. It was evident late in Wednesday’s pool-play game against the Dominican Republic, the first time Venezuela had really been tested in this tournament, when it trailed by four runs heading into the ninth inning and managed to bring the winning run to bat. Venezuela’s lineup isn’t as good as that of the D.R. or the U.S., but it’s close, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Jackson Chourio, Gleyber Torres and Eugenio Suarez leading the way. The question is whether Venezuela can pitch enough. Ranger Suarez, who will take the ball opposite Yamamoto in the quarterfinals, needs to have a big game. And a bullpen headlined by Daniel Palencia and Eduard Bazardo needs to come through behind him. — Gonzalez

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5. Italy

Pre-WBC rank: 9 | Title odds: 18-1

Next opponent: Puerto Rico (Sat. at 3 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team Italy: The Italians arrived ahead of schedule, like a big league team with a great farm system that puts everything together earlier than anticipated. The lineup is real. Even with Kyle Teel on the shelf after tweaking his hamstring, Italy has big leaguers with experience (Vinnie Pasquantino, Jon Berti), youngsters with ceiling (Jac Caglianone, Jakob Marsee) and prospects with talent (Andrew Fischer, Dante Nori, Sam Antonacci). Even if the pitching doesn’t match the bats, Italy has limited homers and walks while punching hitters out. Pool-play upsets are part of WBC history. A team like Italy making the final four would be history. — Passan

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6. Puerto Rico

Pre-WBC rank: 6 | Title odds: 16-1

Next opponent: Italy (Sat. at 3 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team P.R.: The Puerto Ricans will go as far as their pitching staff takes them. Puerto Rico began pool play at home with a shutout win over Colombia and allowed just seven runs over the four games. The offense, however, scored just 15 runs. Five were manufactured in the fifth inning of the opener against the Colombians. Three were produced on soon-to-be-retired 39-year-old Martin Maldonado’s bases-clearing double against Cuba. That’s more than half of their scoring output in just two innings. Not having Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Enrique Hernandez on the team has had the expected effect on the lineup. Heliot Ramos, the team’s best hitter on paper, went 1-for-13 in San Juan. Puerto Rico’s firepower is limited if he doesn’t turn it around. Run prevention is paramount. — Castillo

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7. Canada

Pre-WBC rank: 8 | Title odds: 30-1

Next opponent: United States (Fri. at 8 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team Canada: Canada has a very real lineup. San Juan’s Hiram Bithorn Stadium played big in pool play by benefiting pitchers on all teams, but the Canadians posted the two largest scoring outputs and finished with a pool-high 21 runs as they advanced to the WBC quarterfinals for the first time in their history. Left fielder and top-100 prospect Owen Caissie (1.458 OPS) and veteran utilityman Abraham Toro (1.529 OPS) carried a lineup that also features Josh Naylor and Tyler O’Neill in the middle. Canada starts big leaguers at nearly every position. Moving to hitter-friendly Daikin Park should help this formidable group. — Castillo

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8. Korea

Pre-WBC rank: 7 | Title odds: 50-1

Next opponent: Dominican Republic (Fri. at 6:30 p.m. ET)

What we’ve learned about Team Korea: Korea hadn’t advanced out of pool play in the previous three tournaments, so reaching the quarterfinals — even if just barely, doing so via a tiebreaker over Australia and Chinese Taipei after all three finished pool play 2-2 — removes a lot of pressure for a team that had success in the first two WBCs. First baseman Bo Gyeong Moon has been the hitting star, batting .538 with two home runs and 11 RBIs, but Korea will need more production from its MLB players since its pitching depth is lacking. Shay Whitcomb has two home runs, but Hyeseong Kim (.100), Jahmai Jones (.222) and Jung Hoo Lee (.278) haven’t done much. — Schoenfield