NHL playoff watch: Who is this year's bracket buster?

Monday is a big day. The NHL is one month away from the end of the regular season. Because it’s 3/16, that is also Stone Cold Steve Austin Day for the many who celebrate.

But because March 15 was Selection Sunday for the NCAA basketball tournaments, that means many sports fans will be quite preoccupied with filling out their brackets and perhaps finding some bracket busters to aid their chances at winning their pools.

The Stanley Cup playoffs are no stranger to Cinderella teams; the Florida Panthers were the final team in the postseason in 2023 — and made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. Do any of this season’s potential wild cards have such a run in them?

The Boston Bruins hold the East’s first wild-card spot heading into Monday’s game against the New Jersey Devils (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). If they finish in that position, they’ll take on the division champ with the lower point total.

• The Bruins are 2-1-0 against the Buffalo Sabres, their current first-round matchup.

• Boston has had less luck against the Tampa Bay Lightning, going 0-1-1 so far, with two games remaining against them.

• If the standings fall in a way that the Carolina Hurricanes are Boston’s first opponent, they have gone 1-1-0 vs. that club, with one game remaining.

Currently holding down the second wild-card spot are the Detroit Red Wings, who have losing records against Carolina (1-2-0), Buffalo (0-1-1, with a game remaining) and Tampa Bay (1-2-0, with a game remaining).

Right behind the Red Wings are the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have a winning record against Buffalo (2-0-0, with one game remaining) and Tampa Bay (3-0-0). The Blue Jackets lost their only game to the Canes thus far (back on Dec. 9), but play them again three times in the final stretch of the season. Fans in Western New York and Central Florida might be a little queasy about drawing Columbus in the first round.

Among the Bruins, Red Wings and Blue Jackets, Columbus has the highest chances of making the second round (57.0%), conference finals (25.4%), Cup Final (12.1%) and winning it all (6.0%), according to Stathletes.

In the Western half of the bracket, the team that earns the first wild-card position would appear to have a significantly easier track ahead, as it will likely face the Pacific Division winner instead of the Central’s. Currently, the top three teams in the Pacific range from 73 to 76 standings points, while their Central counterparts are from 88 to 97, led by the juggernaut Colorado Avalanche.

• The San Jose Sharks hold the second wild card heading into Monday’s games. They have one win and two losses this season against Colorado.

• Next up are the Seattle Kraken, who do have a game left against Colorado but lost their previous two against the Avs.

• The Los Angeles Kings are another possibility for the second wild card but have lost all three of their games against Colorado.

Can the first wild card make a run through the Pacific teams? Right now, that top wild-card position is in possession of the Utah Mammoth.

• They have gone 1-1-0 against the Vegas Golden Knights thus far, with one game remaining, this Thursday.

• Utah’s record against the Anaheim Ducks is 1-0-1, with their final game against the Ducks the very next night.

• The Mammoth lost their only game thus far against the Edmonton Oilers but play them twice in the remaining month.

Stathletes gives Utah the best chance of making a run among that quartet of teams: 46.5% to make the second round, 25.2% to make the conference finals, 13.0% to make the Cup Final and 6.3% to win it all.

Every team has around 15 games remaining before the regular season concludes April 16, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch every day. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Buffalo Sabres vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Seattle Kraken
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Vegas Golden Knights vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Today’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

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Last night’s scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Ottawa Senators 7, San Jose Sharks 4
Anaheim Ducks 4, Montreal Canadiens 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Edmonton Oilers 3, Nashville Predators 1
Seattle Kraken 6, Florida Panthers 2

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 107.7
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 106.0
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 101.9
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 90.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 99.4
Next game: @ NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 74.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 97.9
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 34.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 95.7
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 64.4%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1.1%
Tragic number: 21

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Metro Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111.8
Next game: @ CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 65.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 99.1
Next game: @ TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 73.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 84.1%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 91.9
Next game: @ ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 5.4%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 89.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 5.9%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 84.5
Next game: vs. BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 79.5
Next game: vs. LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 16

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Central Division

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 122.4
Next game: vs. PIT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. UTA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 106.1
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 90.6
Next game: @ DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 93.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.3%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.1%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 78.3
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 3.4%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 75.8
Next game: vs. MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 22

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Pacific Division

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 96.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 93.0
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 82.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88.2
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 11.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 88.3
Next game: @ EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 80.3%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 24.8%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 73.3
Next game: @ DET (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 59.6
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23

*Note: The Maple Leafs’ pick belongs to the Bruins, unless it lands in the top five.