Final Four, national champion predictions for the mens NCAA tournament
Mar 18, 2026, 06:50 AM ET After months of debating whether top teams can hold up, weeks of tension over the MAC’s strength of schedule, and days of deliberation over which bubble team would be left out, the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is finally underway. Which team will win it all? Before it’s settled on…
After months of debating whether top teams can hold up, weeks of tension over the MAC’s strength of schedule, and days of deliberation over which bubble team would be left out, the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is finally underway.
Which team will win it all? Before it’s settled on the court, we asked 60 of ESPN’s college basketball analysts and reporters to make their Final Four and national championship picks.
The results were not unanimous — in fact, there were clear majority votes in only two of the four regions.
Without further ado, let’s run through which teams our survey participants believe have the best chances to cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
Final Four picks
South Region
The South was the only region in which the No. 1 seed was not the majority choice to reach the Final Four. Instead, it was the 2025 national runner-up: No. 2 seed Houston. The Cougars were the top choice to win the South by 34 of our 60 analysts, including “College GameDay” personalities Rece Davis, Seth Greenberg and Pete Thamel.
Also in this region: Florida, which defeated Houston in last season’s national championship; 46.3% of Tournament Challenge players have the two meeting in the Elite Eight. Among personalities picking the defending champs to return to the Final Four are Jeff Borzello, Jay Bilas and Jay Williams.
East Region
The No. 1 overall seed Duke was the overwhelmingly popular team to win the East region, with nearly two-thirds of the votes (39). Among those picking the Blue Devils are former head coaches Jim Boeheim and Tom Crean, as well as ESPN’s chief bracketologist Joe Lunardi, whose final forecast correctly picked all 68 teams in the field.
It wasn’t unanimous, though, as the remaining 20 votes were split between four other teams. Seven picked 3-seeded Michigan State, which is looking to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2019. Another seven chose the 2-seeded UConn Huskies, who are looking to win their third national title in four seasons. Five went with the 5-seeded St. John’s Red Storm, who swept the Big East regular-season and tournament titles from UConn. And only two took Darryn Peterson and 4-seeded Kansas Jayhawks.
West Region
If you thought Duke was the dominant choice in the East, No. 1 Arizona was selected by 50 respondents to win the West. Among the Wildcat backers are reporters Myron Medcalf and Kris Budden, the latter of whom had a courtside view as Arizona defeated Houston in a close Big 12 championship game last weekend.
The remaining 10 votes were split evenly between the Big Ten champion Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2) and the SEC champion Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 4).
Midwest Region
The top two seeds — No. 1 Michigan (31 votes) and No. 2 Iowa State (21) — were the two most popular choices, but there were more teams selected in this region than in the other three.
Never tell “Never Tell Me The Odds” co-host Ryan McGee — or the other four voters who selected No. 3 Virginia — the odds of the Cavs winning the region. Analyst John Williams was the only one to pick No. 4 Alabama; play-by-play commentator Shawn Kenney was the only backer of No. 5 Texas Tech; and SEC Network broadcaster Tom Hart saw enough of No. 6 Tennessee to make the Vols his Final Four selection.
National champion picks
Arizona was by far the most popular choice with 33 votes. The Wildcats are looking to win their first national championship since 1997. The second-most-picked team, Michigan (10 votes), is hoping to end an even longer title drought (since 1989).
Will history repeat itself? Four No. 1 seeds making it to the Final Four is a historic rarity, but it happened last season. Medcalf was the only one of our experts to select all four 1-seeds this time, and he is one of nine voters rolling with Duke as the national champion.
Last year, Bilas and Borzello nailed all Final Four picks and the national champion, Florida. This year, they disagree on two of their region winners, but both have Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats winning it all.
Five voters have Florida going back-to-back. Thamel and Boeheim are the only two who have Houston avenging last year’s loss and finally winning the program’s first championship. And only one analyst is taking Purdue.
Follow their picks — or prove them wrong — by making your own on ESPN Tournament Challenge.
