Champions League quarterfinal preview, predictions: Barcelona to keep rolling?

Over the course of a long series of knockout rounds, some rounds serve as table-setters instead of thrillers. The Champions League round of 16 gave us only one tie that went to extra time, and none were decided by one goal. Bayern advanced with an eight-goal advantage over Atalanta, PSG won by a combined six over Chelsea, and even the ties that were undecided after the first leg produced second-leg blowouts: Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle, Sporting CP 5-0 Bodo/Glimt, and Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray.

The drama may have been lacking, but wow, were we given a huge quartet of quarterfinals.

We get a revenge attempt for Liverpool against PSG, we get another two matches in maybe the most entertaining series of the past year or so (Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid), and we get royalty versus royalty (Bayern vs. Real Madrid). Plus, we get to find out if Arsenal can grind its way past a Sporting CP team that has proved it can win with either all-out suffer-ball, or 90 minutes of full-on pressure.

– UCL Talking Points: Real Madrid, Liverpool show what they can do
– Weekend predictions: Carabao Cup, Madrid derby, more
– Hamilton: The tricky life of an assistant manager

And so, with the round of 16 still looming in the rearview, let’s look ahead to April’s quarterfinals.

---

ARSENAL vs. SPORTING CP

First leg: April 7 | Second leg: April 15

The last time Arsenal and Sporting played, in November 2024, Joao Pereira had just taken over as Miguel Amorim’s Sporting replacement, and things didn’t go particularly well for the home team. Arsenal got goals from five different players and left Lisbon with a 5-1 win. Pereira lasted only about six weeks on the job, but under Rui Borges, they’ve put together a remarkable Champions League campaign. Unfortunately for them, Arsenal have been even more brilliant.

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 1 Arsenal (30.0%), No. 14 Sporting (3.3%)

How Arsenal advanced: By remembering what they’re best at. After an overly cautious road leg — not the first of those that Arsenal have experienced under Mikel Arteta — the Gunners shifted into domination mode at home against Bayer Leverkusen in the second leg of the round of 16. They won 2-0 to secure a cumulative 3-1 victory.

They didn’t create a ton of great chances Tuesday (only two of their 21 shot attempts were worth over 0.2 xG), but a thunderous strike from Eberechi Eze put them ahead in the 36th minute, Declan Rice added a second in the 60th, and Bayer Leverkusen were never going to generate enough of a threat to come back.

Eberechi Eze with an absolute SCORCHER to beat Bayer Leverkusen’s Janis Blaswich 🚀🔥

William Saliba’s reaction to that golazo says EVERYTHING 😳👏 pic.twitter.com/HKEhm37VMR

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) March 17, 2026

Even with the early conservatism, Arsenal attempted 27 shots worth 3.4 xG over the 180 minutes, while Leverkusen attempted 19 worth 1.5. The actual result matched up pretty closely.

How Sporting advanced: By turning up the volume. After a meek 3-0 defeat at Bodo/Glimt in the round of 16, first leg, Sporting had no choice but to go pedal-to-the-metal in the second leg at home. Rui Borges’ squad was able to maintain a full-throttle approach over most of 90 minutes, attempting 34 shots to Bodo/Glimt’s six in regulation and scoring in the 34th, 61st and 78th minutes to tie things up.

Maxi Araujo scored just two minutes into extra time, and Sporting were finally able to ease off the throttle a bit. They prevented any serious comeback attempts over the next 28 minutes and put the tie away with a Rafael Nel goal in stoppage time. It was as steady a three-goal comeback as you’ll see.

Why Arsenal will win: Because they’re the best team in Europe. At some point, I might need to come up with another stock line to always deliver when talking about the Gunners, but this one’s still accurate. Premier League teams may have struggled a bit in the round of 16, and Arteta’s ever-cautious tendencies created 90 tedious minutes in Leverkusen and forced them to play well at home. But they still handled their business with little drama, which has been the case since the start of the campaign.

Arsenal have now won nine of their 10 Champions League matches with one draw. They’re fourth in goals scored per game (2.6), and they’re first in goals allowed (0.5). They have the third-best scoring margin in the competition on set pieces (+0.4 goals per match), but despite their reputation, they’re tied with Bayern for the best open-play scoring margin (+1.6). We don’t really know what will happen if someone’s able to hit them a couple of times early on and force them to play from behind; the last time they were more than one goal down in a match, after all, was last May against Liverpool. (They did come back to tie that match, for what that’s worth.)

We saw an overly cautious Arsenal forced to penalties two years ago in order to eliminate Porto after losing the first leg, and Sporting can hope for a similar scenario this time around, but you have to squint to find any sort of major weakness in their play this year.

Why Sporting will win: They can keep this close and tense. Sporting’s all-out attack against Bodo/Glimt was incredibly impressive, but they’ve gotten to this stage primarily because of a defense that gives you absolutely nothing. They rank second in the Champions League in xG allowed per shot (0.12), and they’ve kept at least two defenders between shot and goal on 81.8% of opponent’s shots, most of any quarterfinalist.

If they can hunker down, block shots and counterattack, they’re in their happy place, and if they can simply get a moment or two of magic from Trincao or Luis “Not That One” Suarez — the two have combined for nine goals and five assists from 25 chances created in the Champions League — they could have the Emirates crowd awfully nervous well into the second leg.

Prediction: Arsenal 4, Sporting 1. There’s a path to a Sporting upset, but Arsenal’s whole thing is that they create so many paths for themselves.

---

BAYERN MUNICH vs. REAL MADRID

First leg: April 7 | Second leg: April 15

The most played matchup in the history of the European Cup/Champions League will add two more matches — the 29th and 30th since 1976 — to the tally. Bayern were Real Madrid’s bogey team for decades, winning nine of their first 13 meetings. But starting with the second leg of the 2011-12 semifinals, Real Madrid have gone unbeaten in the past nine head-to-heads. Bayern will be favored, but does that matter in this competition?

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 2 Bayern (18.0%), No. 5 Real Madrid (10.2%)

How Bayern advanced: With Bayern-esque domination. Atalanta had taken down Borussia Dortmund in dramatic fashion in the last round and has plenty of excellent performances against European heavyweights on the résumé, but Bayern jumped on them immediately, racing to a 3-0 lead in just 25 minutes in the first leg in Bergamo and cruising to a cumulative 10-2 win despite (a) Harry Kane not playing in the first leg and (b) a goalkeeper injury crisis so severe that they thought they might have to start a 16-year-old in the second leg. (In the end, 22-year-old Jonas Urbig started and played well until a late, meaningless breakdown.)

Michael Olise and Luis Díaz combined for three goals and three assists across the two legs, 10 players made a goal contribution, and when Kane returned in the second leg, he did ridiculous stuff like this:

50 in the Champions League 😤

Harry Kane powers through defenders and finishes it with class. Unreal 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IVRKb1hLRX

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) March 18, 2026

How Real Madrid advanced: With individual brilliance, as always. (And a well-timed red card.) Federico Valverde had just about the most gorgeous hat trick you’ll ever see as Real Madrid stunned Manchester City 3-0 in the first leg of the round of 16, and after Thibaut Courtois made a couple of lovely early saves back in Manchester, a Bernardo Silva red card and a brace from Vinícius Júnior gave them a 2-1 win in the return leg.

Real Madrid don’t get to play much as underdogs, but it can bring out the best in them at times when they do, especially in the Champions League. Perhaps it’s good news, then, that they’ll get to do it again in the next round.

Why Bayern will win: They have too much firepower. After hinting at vulnerability in late January, Bayern have outscored nine opponents 31-9 since the start of February. The defense certainly isn’t perfect, and they would certainly love it if keeper Manuel Neuer were to return from his latest muscle injury by the April 7 trip to Madrid (even though he made a costly mistake in their last knockout round loss there two years ago). But their form is just dynamite.

Bayern are on pace for 88 points in Bundesliga play — that would be their highest total since 2015-16, Pep Guardiola’s last year in charge — and in Champions League play they’re first in goals per game (2.9) and third in goals allowed per game (1.0). Their buildup play might be the best in Europe, and their 72.1 progressive passes per game also rank first in the competition. In fact, Joshua Kimmich (13.4 progressive passes per 90 minutes) and Aleksandar Pavlovic (12.3) have been just about the best such passers in this competition.

Against a passive and often shaky Real Madrid defense, they should control the ball.

Why Real Madrid will win: Because this is Real Madrid in the Champions League. We can’t really say this team is shifting into a new gear under Alvaro Arbeloa, as it hasn’t even been a month since their back-to-back league losses to Getafe and Osasuna. But even in this scattershot season, their great moments have been otherworldly. They scored six on Monaco and five on Real Betis in January, and they controlled nearly 180 minutes against City, counterattacking brilliantly. And no matter how well they’re playing in a given season, when the brightest of Champions League lights go on, the more they tend to play like Real Madrid, the most successful club in Europe.

Club form and defensive fragility — and an injury to Kylian Mbappé — didn’t matter when Manchester City came to the Bernebeu; they extended their run of success against Guardiola’s club all the same. They’ve now lost only once in their last seven City head-to-heads.

They’re also unbeaten in their past nine matches against Bayern, by the way, and they gutted out a late comeback against Bayern in the semifinals just two years ago. Bayern have been the second-best team in Europe this season, behind only Arsenal, but again, does that matter?

Prediction: Bayern 5, Real Madrid 4. It takes a leap of faith picking against the Blancos in this competition, and Mbappe’s likely return could give Real Madrid a boost (though it sounds like Courtois will miss the matchup with a thigh injury), but Bayern’s firepower is ridiculous.

---

BARCELONA vs. ATLETICO MADRID

First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 14

Is there a more fun matchup in Europe right now than Hansi Flick’s Barca against Diego Simeone’s Atleti? In just the past 13 months, they’ve played matches with scores of 4-4, 4-2 (Barca), 3-1 (Barca), 4-0 (Atleti) and 3-0 (Barca); the combination of Barca’s aggressive attack and high defensive line and Atleti’s counter-attacking potential (and the occasional brilliance of Julián Álvarez) makes this an aesthetically perfect matchup.

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 3 Barcelona (14.7%), No. 8 Atletico (4.7%)

How Barca advanced: By setting a trap. They baited Newcastle into a track meet, and ran them into the ground.

– First 120 minutes: Newcastle 3 (2.7 xG), Barcelona 3 (2.1 xG)
– Last 60 minutes: Barcelona 5 (3.7 xG), Newcastle 0 (0.1 xG)

Raphinha was at his best, scoring two goals with two assists, and Robert Lewandowski scored twice in five minutes as Newcastle’s errors ramped up exponentially. The tempo in the first half of the second leg was absolutely nuclear, and Newcastle’s legs went. Barca’s almost never do.

How Atletico advanced: With early offense. They got out of Tottenham’s way as Spurs collapsed early in the first leg, then rode out the rest of the 180 minutes. Antonín Kinsky‘s epic collapse aided Atleti as they stormed to a 3-0 lead just 15 minutes in, then made it 4-0 shortly after Kinsky’s substitution. They were outscored 5-3 over the final 158 minutes — Atleti are not nearly as sure in shutting matches down and maintaining leads as they used to be — but it didn’t matter. Spurs cut the deficit to two goals a couple of times on Wednesday, but Atleti responded, and the tie was basically over after Julian Alvarez muscled Xavi Simons to the ground, then scored on the other end a few seconds later.

Julián Álvarez with the twist, turn and brilliant finish to extend Atlético Madrid’s aggregate lead to 6-3 💫

The Argentine striker now has 14 #UCL goals in his last 17 matches 🇦🇷 pic.twitter.com/6zwmQZx9bL

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) March 18, 2026

Why Barca will win: Because they’re just so damn good at what they do (and they’re getting healthier). Barca have had their shaky moments in this competition, drawing 3-3 with Club Brugge and losing 3-0 to Chelsea back-to-back and failing to control Newcastle for much of the first leg. But that was a while ago. They’ve outscored their last seven opponents 24-6 in all competitions, and players like Raphinha and Pedri are finding their rhythm after injury issues. Gavi just got back on the pitch after a long absence, too, and fullbacks Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde should be back from injury soon. And no matter who’s been on the pitch, Barcelona have established the defensive intensity — a high defensive line (with lots of offsides drawn) with few pressure-free passes allowed — that Flick Ball requires.

Barca are willing to allow a goal if it means scoring two, but the defense has been a bit more sturdy of late. And when Pedri is pulling the strings in deep midfield and Raphinha is punishing defenses for focusing too much on Lamine Yamal, they are nearly unstoppable.

Against a new, more wide-open Atletico, they have won four of the last five, scoring at least three goals in three. The one defeat was a lopsided one — 4-0 in Madrid, which eventually eliminated them from the Copa del Rey — but it came without Raphinha and Pedri, and it featured both an own goal and red card from Eric García. It took a lot for that blowout to happen, in other words, and they still nearly came back and won the tie anyway.

Why Atletico will win: Because this is a more adaptable Atleti (and the Metropolitano is magic). In LaLiga play, Atletico still have Atletico tendencies: They’re second in goals and xG allowed, third in shots allowed per possession and fourth in xG allowed per shot. Simeone has worked at making them more versatile in attack — they’re also fourth in goals scored and have their highest possession rate on record, 55.1% — but the defense they long ago became known for still shows up most of the time.

However, they’ve struggled to get the balance right in the more open Champions League. They’re allowing 2.0 goals per match (25th out of 36 teams), but they’ve reached the quarterfinals because they can score. Julian Alvarez has 17 goals and eight assists in all competitions this season, and while 34-year-old Antoine Griezmann and 30-year-old Alexander Sorloth have seen their minutes limited, they’ve also combined for 28 goals and five assists. January addition Ademola Lookman has made seven goal contributions in his nine matches, too.

They’re also absurdly good at home. In their last 26 matches at home in the Wanda Metropolitano over the last year or so, Atletico have won 23, and by often emphatic margins — 4-0 over Barca, 4-0 over Real Sociedad, 5-1 over Eintracht Frankfurt, 5-2 over Real Madrid, 5-2 over Tottenham, etc. If they establish another lead in the first leg of the quarterfinals, their first Champions League semifinal berth since 2017 could be in the cards.

Prediction: Barcelona 5, Atletico 3. As fun as Flick-Simeone matches tend to be, Barca also tend to win them.

---

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN vs. LIVERPOOL

First leg: April 8 | Second leg: April 14

A year ago, Europe’s best team over the previous six months (Liverpool) fell to Europe’s hottest team (PSG) in an unimaginably tense round-of-16 tie. A year later, neither label applies, and these teams have been mired in an unending quest for top form. But one of them will reach the semifinals all the same. Can Liverpool get revenge, or was PSG’s brilliant finishing against Chelsea a sign of things to come?

Current Opta world rankings and title odds: No. 4 PSG (12.2%), No. 7 Liverpool (7.0%)

How PSG advanced: With otherworldly finishing. They haven’t been able to pull away from Lens in the Ligue 1 race, they fell to neighbor Paris FC in the Coupe de France, they won just one of their last five matches in the Champions League league phase, and they nearly had to go to extra time to surpass Monaco in the round of 24. But PSG almost literally couldn’t miss in the round of 16 against Chelsea.

– Combined shots: Chelsea 27, PSG 17
– Combined xG: Chelsea 2.8, PSG 2.1
– Combined goals: PSG 8, Chelsea 2

The xG gods finally righted the wrongs of two years ago, when PSG were bounced from the Champions League semifinals against Borussia Dortmund after turning a 4.9-1.6 xG advantage into a cumulative 2-0 defeat. Over two legs against Liam Rosenior’s naive but unlucky Blues, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored three goals from shots worth 0.5 xG, Bradley Barcola scored twice from shots worth 0.7, and Ousmane Dembélé (one goal from 0.3 xG), Vitinha (one from 0.2) and Senny Mayulu (one from 0.1) all netted excellent goals as well. Their buildup play wasn’t as strong as usual, and they did a lot of their damage in the second leg because of Chelsea errors, but when the ball keeps going into the net like that, nothing else matters.

How Liverpool advanced: With anger. After Galatasaray pummeled Juventus at home, but gave the lead away despite being up a man and needed extra time to win the tie on the road, we probably should have known what to expect in the round of 16 against Liverpool. Sure enough, they were great at home again against the defending Premier League champs, winning 1-0 in a legitimately fun, even battle (xG: 1.3 for both teams). But then came the trip to Anfield.

After both the frustrating trip to Istanbul and an even more maddening home draw against relegation-threatened Tottenham over the weekend, Liverpool unleashed hell on Galatasaray. Shots: Liverpool 32, Gala 4. xG: Liverpool 4.9, Gala 0.2. They scored only once over the first 50 minutes, with Mohamed Salah scuffing an awful penalty attempt, but the dam burst in the second half, and goals from Hugo Ekitike, Ryan Gravenberch and Salah over a 12-minute span turned the match into a laugher.

TWO GOALS IN 115 seconds 🤯

Hugo Ekitike and Ryan Gravenberch go back to back to put Liverpool in control 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DXLCr4rPAj

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) March 18, 2026

They rolled 4-0, and any time they look like that, they can beat anyone in Europe.

Why PSG will win: Because we’ve seen them do it. They’re the defending champs, they have the reigning Ballon d’Or winner (Dembele) up front, they have the best midfielder (Vitinha) and fullbacks (Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes) in the world, and when they tilt the pitch appropriately, their endless string of attackers — Dembele, Kvaratshkelia, Barcola, Désiré Doué, Mayulu, Gonçalo Ramos, Lee Kang-In — can overwhelm anyone.

Between injuries, lots of personnel shuffling from Luis Enrique and perhaps a few hangover symptoms, PSG haven’t been able to maintain their fifth-gear form as they did this time last year. Hell, they fell 3-1 to Monaco right before the Chelsea tie. But we know what they’re capable of, and it won’t surprise anyone if they roll to another Champions League title from here.

Why Liverpool will win: Because the components are all there. Who has the best xG differential in the Champions League this year? Arsenal? Bayern? Nope, Liverpool. Who’s allowed the second-fewest Champions League goals per match despite all those defensive issues we’ve read about this season? Who’s averaging nearly a goal per game from set pieces alone? Who has the best margin of shots attempted versus shots allowed? Who has the best margin of high-value shots (0.2 xG or higher) attempted versus allowed? Who’s put the most shots on goal? Who’s generated the most xG per match from counterattacks? Who’s created the second-most high turnovers of any quarterfinalist while allowing the fewest? Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool, Liverpool and Liverpool.

This team has been punished for its inconsistency this season and without a strong finish, the axe really could fall for manager Arne Slot just one year after winning the Premier League. But 21 years ago, Liverpool won the Champions League while finishing fifth in the Premier League, and they’re more than capable of duplicating that feat in the coming weeks.

Prediction: PSG 3, Liverpool 2. We’ll stick with the champs here, but it would shock me if this one didn’t go all the way down to the wire, especially with the second leg at Anfield.