Will Daniel Jones return to form? Colts are banking on it

INDIANAPOLIS — Daniel Jones grabbed his right leg and immediately recognized the gravity of the moment. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback, perhaps realizing his right Achilles tendon had ruptured amid the best season of his career, repeatedly slammed his helmet into the wet turf in a display of frustration.

That scene, on Dec. 7 in Jacksonville, is now juxtaposed against a much different one: Jones walking into the Colts’ media room on March 12 — with no crutches and no noticeable limp — preparing to discuss the massive two-year contract extension he had just signed.

That the Colts handed Jones a deal with a base value of $88 million and with a maximum value of $100 million via incentives, just three months after one of the more devastating injuries in sports, raised a fair number of eyebrows.

But Jones and the Colts seem unfazed by it all. The team built its offseason strategy around retaining Jones and recapturing the offensive magic it found with him under center in 2025. The organization is moving forward under the belief that Jones will play as early as opening day in 2026 and can duplicate what he did a season ago.

“What he was able to do before the injury was awesome for us,” coach Shane Steichen said.

Said general manager Chris Ballard: “We feel good about where he is at and where he’s going.”

But are the Colts on solid ground here? Or are they taking too rosy an approach to an injury that can have far-reaching implications for players?

“I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he might start opening day for them,” said Dr. Tim Kremchek, an orthopedic surgeon and medical director for the Cincinnati Reds.

The bottom line: Given the stakes, the Colts and Jones have treated this with the ultimate seriousness. Jones’ surgery was performed by renowned surgeon Dr. Martin O’Malley, who also performed Achilles repairs on NBA stars Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics and Tyrese Haliburton of the Indiana Pacers.

Tatum recently returned to the lineup less than 10 months after surgery following his injury in last season’s playoffs and has played impressively. Basketball involves much more explosive movements and more cutting than Jones would typically perform as a quarterback, Kremchek said. That, he added, means it’s reasonable to expect Jones to have a shorter return timeline.

Relatedly, O’Malley is among the many physicians who employ a more updated method of Achilles repair. The procedure involves a much smaller incision than was used in the past, reducing the likelihood of infection and other complications.

Another thing that allows the Colts to have some peace of mind is the timing of the contract talks with Jones. Jones and the Colts agreed to terms on March 11, just as the free agent signing period was about to begin. That was just over three months from the date of Jones’ Dec. 9 surgery, a key milepost in Achilles recoveries.

“The three-month mark is when you’re kind of past the danger zone,” Ballard said.

Kremchek concurred.

“Three months is really the key point,” he said.

At that juncture, the incision has fully healed (making infection unlikely), range of motion begins to return and the effectiveness of the surgery becomes more apparent. Doctors at that point can examine progress more easily, providing peace of mind. Jones was seen by O’Malley and team doctors before the contract was executed and felt that moving forward was prudent.

An example of the significance of the three-month mark can be found in another NFL quarterback. The Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson did not make it to the three-month mark in his recovery from a 2024 Achilles tear. He sustained a reinjury just more than two months after surgery and required a follow-up procedure that significantly set back his rehab timeline.

“But once you get past that three-month mark, you’re pretty much golden,” Kremchek said. “It’s really hard to hurt them again after three months.”

Now that Jones is more than 90 days out from surgery, his rehab will begin to ramp up. Strengthening will be a priority and, soon, he can progress to jogging. Some controlled football movements might be possible during offseason workouts this spring, Kremchek said, with Jones likely to resume throwing passes at the five- or six-month mark.

An underrated variable in all of this is Jones’ approach to his rehab. He has attacked it in a relentless fashion, remaining in Indianapolis this offseason to work with the Colts’ medical staff on a daily basis. And Jones has left no stone unturned, consulting with quarterbacks who also sustained Achilles tears to look for tips. Jones reached out to Aaron Rodgers in the immediate aftermath of the injury, looking for advice on how to attack the recovery. Rodgers sustained a ruptured Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

“It is a process and there’s a lot of work to do and I’m ready to do it,” Jones said.

Finally, history is on Jones’ side. While the list of prominent quarterbacks who have experienced Achilles tears is not long, there have been notable success stories.

The most famous example might be Hall of Famer Dan Marino’s 1993 injury at 32 years old. (Jones is 28.) Marino overcame the injury and had an impressive season in 1994, throwing for 4,453 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Kirk Cousins, at 35, sustained an Achilles tear in Week 8 of the 2023 season with the Atlanta Falcons and was able to participate with few limitations in the team’s 2024 spring workouts. Rodgers, who infamously tore his Achilles on the first series of the 2023 season with the New York Jets at 40 years old, remarkably made a limited return to practice 11 weeks after surgery. The Jets ultimately elected not to play him until the following season.

Can Jones join that list of quarterbacks with positive outcomes after an Achilles tear? He believes he’s well on his way.

“I’m in a good spot,” Jones said. “I think I’m on schedule … I’ve hit my marks and just have to continue to do that.

“I feel good with where I am right now.”