NHL playoff watch: Projecting Senators' wild-card chances — and who should be scared

After nine games on the schedule Sunday, and before the 15 on Tuesday, the NHL calendar is a little slim Monday.

The Ottawa Senators head to Manhattan to take on the New York Rangers (7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Network). Though mathematically still a possibility, the Rangers’ legitimate chances at a playoff spot left town weeks ago. Can the Senators still earn a ticket to the postseason?

Ahead of Monday’s faceoff, the Sens are four points back of the New York Islanders for the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot, five back of the Boston Bruins for the first wild card, and also five back of the Montreal Canadiens for the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic.

Beyond their game against the Rangers, the Sens have 12 games left, including seven against current playoff teams; their only matchup against the Isles, Bruins or Canadiens is April 11 on Long Island. How does that schedule compare to the teams they are chasing?

• Montreal has 13 games left, including eight vs. current playoff teams.

• Boston has 12 games left, with eight against clubs in a current playoff position.

• New York has 11 games left, and six are against teams in playoff position.

Out of these four teams, Stathletes projects the Canadiens to finish with the most points (101.0), earning the No. 3 spot in the Atlantic, with the Bruins (98.4) and Senators (98.0) earning the wild cards over the Islanders (96.0).

If Ottawa does make it as a wild card, should the teams battling for the Eastern division leads be concerned? Here’s how the Sens have done against them this season:

• The Sens have lost both games to the Buffalo Sabres this season, with one game remaining (April 2).

• Ottawa won its only game against the Tampa Bay Lightning (on Oct. 9), but the clubs meet twice down the stretch.

• Similar to the Buffalo situation, the Carolina Hurricanes have won both games against Ottawa so far, with one game remaining (April 5).

Every team has 15 or fewer games left before the regular season concludes April 16, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here every day on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Buffalo Sabres vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 New York Islanders
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Vegas Golden Knights vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Today’s game

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, 7:30 p.m. (NHLN)

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Last night’s scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
New York Islanders 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Dallas Stars 2
Calgary Flames 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Anaheim Ducks 6, Buffalo Sabres 5 (OT)
Utah Mammoth 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 109.7
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 108.2
Next game: vs. MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 87.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 100.7
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 69.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 98.4
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 39%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 96.3
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 68%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8

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Metro Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 112.5
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 100.7
Next game: vs. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 87.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 99.6
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 92.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 37.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 10.3%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 91.2
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 7.8%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: vs. OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 4

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Central Division

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 121.2
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 113.6
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 106.3
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 92.4
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 87.9
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 28.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.2%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.6%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 14

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Pacific Division

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 96.1
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 90.1
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 88.9
Next game: @ UTA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 83.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 85.5
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 44.9%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4.9%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 32.1%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: vs. LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 59.4
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 1

Note: An “x” with a team’s name means the club has clinched a playoff spot.

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27

*Note: The Maple Leafs’ pick belongs to the Bruins, unless it lands in the top five.