Future of Giannis and Ja, and the big questions facing every NBA lottery team
A year ago, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks were preparing for the playoffs. This season, after roster turnover and injuries to All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo derailed their chances, Indiana and Milwaukee will join the group of teams that begins the 2026 offseason on April 12. The next step for the Pacers, Bucks…
A year ago, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks were preparing for the playoffs.
This season, after roster turnover and injuries to All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo derailed their chances, Indiana and Milwaukee will join the group of teams that begins the 2026 offseason on April 12.
The next step for the Pacers, Bucks and eight other lottery-bound teams is the arduous process of draft preparation, free agency discussions and trade market evaluation. (Or, in the case of Milwaukee, a franchise-altering decision on Antetokounmpo’s future.)
To get an early start to the offseason, let’s examine the big question facing each bottom-10 team and how it could be addressed this summer. (Note: No. 1 pick odds and 2026 draft picks are based on league standings heading into Monday’s games.)
Jump to a team:
BKN | CHI | DAL
IND | MEM | MIL | NO
SAC | UTAH | WAS
No. 1 pick odds: 14%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 3, 33, 43 (via LAC)
The big question: Should the Nets extend or trade Michael Porter Jr.?
Porter’s first season in Brooklyn — Denver sent the forward and a 2032 unprotected first-round pick to the Nets for Cameron Johnson this past July — has featured a career-high 24.2 points per game and a fourth straight season of better than 36% 3-point shooting.
And prior to a strained left hamstring suffered March 19, Porter had missed just 14 games since the 2023-24 season, a trend in the right direction after injuries hampered him early in his career.
His impact on the court, durability and age — Porter will turn 28 in June — should warrant discussions on a new contract. He will be eligible to sign a four-year, $234 million deal.
It’s important to note that Brooklyn has no incentive to tank next season, as Houston has the right to swap first-round picks in 2027. Brooklyn will enter free agency with a high lottery pick and could have between $45 million and $55 million in cap room heading into free agency.
Free agents: Ochai Agbaji (restricted), Josh Minott ($2.6 million team option), Day’Ron Sharpe ($6.3 million team option), Ziaire Williams ($6.3 million team option), Jalen Wilson (restricted), EJ Liddell (restricted), Tyson Etienne (restricted), Chaney Johnson (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 4.5%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 9, 37 (via NOP), 54 (via DEN); own Portland’s first-round pick if 15-30
The big question: Can the Bulls escape the middle?
Chicago made a league-high seven trades ahead of the deadline that netted eight second-round picks and onetime first-rounders Rob Dillingham and Jaden Ivey.
“We’ve maintained substantial flexibility heading into the offseason,” Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas told reporters after the Feb. 5 trade deadline. “That gives us real options, whether that is free agency, the draft, trades or continuing investment in development.”
The flexibility Karnisovas referred to is the potential $64 million to use in free agency — Ivey’s free agent hold would need to be renounced — and a likely top-10 pick. The Bulls have selected in the lottery five times since Karnisovas took over in 2020 and have not drafted better than 11th in any of them.
“Being in the middle,” Karnisovas said. “That is what we don’t want to do.”
Free agents: Zach Collins, Jaden Ivey (restricted), Leonard Miller ($2.4 million team option), Nick Richards, Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons, Guerschon Yabusele, Mac McClung (restricted), Yuki Kawamura (restricted), Lachlan Olbrich (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 9%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 6, 47 (via PHX)
The big question: Who is in charge of basketball operations?
“Our goal is to return to winning basketball in Dallas and win championships,” Mavericks owner Patrick Dumont wrote in a letter to Mavericks fans after general manager Nico Harrison was fired in November.
The person Dumont selects as Harrison’s replacement will play a pivotal role in determining whether Dallas can return to its winning ways.
Since November, Dumont has had Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley co-running basketball operations on an interim basis. Both helped orchestrate the blockbuster trade that sent Anthony Davis to Washington in February, which returned five draft picks, including a late first-rounder in this year’s draft.
More importantly, the move extended Dallas’ financial runway to build around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg. Whether Dumont builds from within or adds new faces, the Mavericks’ front office will also inherit a lottery pick in the strong 2026 draft, young players in Max Christie and Dereck Lively II, and financial flexibility starting this offseason.
And, depending on how much the franchise wants to lean on its youth, Dallas has veterans Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson and PJ Washington to either keep or trade.
Free agents: Marvin Bagley III, Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard ($2.2 million team option), Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, Moussa Cisse (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 14%
2026 draft picks: No. 1
The big question: Can the Pacers find lottery luck?
No team will be impacted by the draft lottery more than the Pacers.
Their Feb. 5 trade with the LA Clippers filled a hole at center with the addition of 2024-25 All-NBA second-team defender Ivica Zubac and also put the Pacers at risk of not having a lottery pick, despite owning one of the league’s worst records. The Pacers will send the Clippers their first-round pick if it falls between Nos. 5 and 9 — currently a 47.9% chance.
If the Pacers retain their pick, it could propel the franchise back into title contention two seasons after a run to Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. Indiana would have star Tyrese Haliburton back from an Achilles tear and be in position to draft from a pool of players that includes AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff Jr. and Caleb Wilson.
Free agents: Kobe Brown, Micah Potter ($2.8 million team option), Jalen Slawson (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 6%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 8, 18 (most favorable of Orlando or Phoenix), 31 (via IND)
The big question: Will the Grizzlies find a Ja Morant trade?
In addition to navigating three draft picks in the top 31, Memphis once again faces a decision with two-time All-Star guard Morant. As ESPN’s Shams Charania reported, the Grizzlies explored trades for Morant ahead of the deadline, but no deal materialized.
Morant was shut down for the season last week, two months after he suffered a UCL strain in his left elbow. Throughout his 20 games — he has played just 79 across the past three seasons — Morant recorded the lowest field goal (41%) and 3-point (23.5%) percentages of his career.
After Memphis traded 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah on Feb. 3, Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman said the team is pivoting toward getting younger. How the two years and $87 million remaining on Morant’s contract fit into that pivot remains unanswered.
Free agents: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21.6 million player option), GG Jackson ($2.4 million team option), Olivier-Maxence Prosper ($2.5 million team option), Ryan Rupert (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 0%
2026 draft picks: No. 10 (the less favorable of their own and New Orleans)
The big question: Can the Bucks find closure with Giannis?
Wes Edens, the team’s controlling owner until April 2028, spoke matter-of-factly when he talked to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne about the future of Milwaukee’s franchise player.
“Giannis is going into the last year [of his contract],” Edens said. “So one of two things will happen: Either he will be extended or he’ll be traded.”
Starting Oct. 1, Antetokounmpo is eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million contract. (If he exercises his $62.8 million option for 2026-27, it would become a three-year, $213.6 million deal.)
But to sign a fourth extension with Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo has to be sold on the franchise’s plans to bolster a roster that will miss its first playoffs since 2016.
The Bucks will likely add a top-10 pick in this year’s draft — because of the Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard trades, the Bucks do not control their own first-round pick until 2031 — and have 12 players from the current roster under contract for 2026-27. Five of those players, including starting guard Kevin Porter Jr., have player options.
An Antetokounmpo trade would require interested teams to weigh multiple factors before creating a package to land the two-time MVP.
How much leverage does Antetokounmpo have in choosing his next team? Would teams be interested in trading a hefty collection of assets — draft picks, young players on controllable contracts and sizable short-term deals — with no guarantee on an extension? Antetokounmpo would be eligible for the same extension he could sign with the Bucks, albeit not until six months after a trade.
Free agents: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Ousmane Dieng (restricted), Gary Harris ($3.8 million player option), Andre Jackson Jr. ($2.4 million team option), Kevin Porter Jr. ($5.4 million player option), Taurean Prince ($3.8 million player team option), Jericho Sims ($2.8 million player option), Gary Trent Jr. ($3.9 million player option), Alex Antetokounmpo (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 0%
2026 draft picks: No. 58 (via DET)
The big question: Has coach James Borrego done enough to remove the interim tag?
Pelicans president of basketball operations Joe Dumars was clear in his vision for the franchise when Borrego replaced Willie Green as coach after the team’s 2-10 start.
“It’s establishing that we are going to be a team that plays hard every night,” Dumars said at the time Green was fired. “That’s still what I’m looking for right now, and I had that conversation with James this morning.”
Dumars has had nearly six months to evaluate Borrego, who has made a strong case, especially since the All-Star break, when New Orleans ranks in the top 15 in both offensive rating and net rating. The lineup of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson is plus-13.3 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 24.
While the Pelicans will not add a lottery pick to next season’s roster, 14 players from this season’s team are under contract for 2026-27. New Orleans also has a valuable unprotected first-round pick from Milwaukee in 2027.
Free agents: DeAndre Jordan, Kevon Looney ($8 million team option), Karlo Matkovic ($2.3 million team option), Hunter Dickinson (restricted), Trey Alexander (restricted), Josh Oduro (restriced)
No. 1 pick odds: 12.5%
2026 draft picks: Nos. 4, 34, 44 (via CHA)
The big question: What is the comfort level in retaining coach Doug Christie?
When a team with one playoff appearance since 2006 is on pace for the fourth-fewest wins in franchise history, there are multiple big questions.
But considering the draft lottery is not until May 10 and free agency does not begin until seven weeks later, the immediate focus in Sacramento should be evaluating and deciding Christie’s future.
“I’m just expecting him to be my coach until I tell you anything different,” Kings GM Scott Perry told reporters after the trade deadline. “I’m not even thinking along those lines right now. I want to see us get incrementally better each day, and I want to see him continue to improve as a coach.”
The Kings are 7-15 since Feb. 5, ranking 25th in offense and 27th in defense, but Christie’s roster has endured bouts of injuries. Sacramento has used 31 different starting lineups, 13 more than throughout 2024-25.
The Kings lost Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and De’Andre Hunter to season-ending injuries at different points, and no player on the roster has played more than 60 games outside of veterans DeMar DeRozan, Russell Westbrook and Precious Achiuwa and rookies Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud.
Free agents: Precious Achiuwa, Drew Eubanks, Zach LaVine ($49 million player option), Doug McDermott, Russell Westbrook, Patrick Baldwin Jr. (restricted), Daeqwon Plowden (restricted), Killian Hayes ($3 million team option)
No. 1 pick odds: 10.5%
2026 draft picks: No. 5
The big question: What is the cost to retain restricted free agent Walker Kessler?
Three deadline trades could help decide Kessler’s future in Utah.
The first was when the Jazz acquired Jackson from the Grizzlies, a move to accelerate a rebuild that began in the 2022 offseason.
It was only a three-game sample, but the pairing of the 6-10 Jackson and 7-1 Lauri Markkanen proved efficient when the forwards were paired with a center in big lineups. The Jazz were plus-9.8 points per 100 possessions when both players were on the court with 6-11 Jusuf Nurkic.
Kessler had season-ending shoulder surgery in November and played only five games this season. But 2024-25 was his best as a pro, as Kessler averaged a career high in points (11.1), rebounds (12.2) and assists (1.7) and shot an NBA-leading 66.3%. He became the first player since Hall of Famer Tim Duncan to average at least two blocks per game in each of his first three NBA seasons.
The Jazz were once projected to have significant cap space this summer, in large part because of the $14.9 million free agent hold of Kessler. But by taking on Jackson’s $49 million salary, Utah can no longer boast financial flexibility to add in free agency outside of retaining Kessler. (The Jazz still have a high lottery pick in 2026 and the $15.1 million non-tax midlevel exception to use in potential trades to build the roster.)
The Wizards were a potential suitor for Kessler in restricted free agency but no longer have cap space available after blockbuster moves to acquire Trae Young and Anthony Davis.
That leads to the question: Who exactly would Utah be bidding against? Currently, the only teams projected to have substantial cap space this summer are the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.
Free agents: Walker Kessler (restricted), Kevin Love, Jusuf Nurkic, EJ Harkless (restricted), Oscar Tshiebwe (restricted)
No. 1 pick odds: 14%
2026 draft picks: No. 2, No. 52 (via MIN), No. 60 (via WAS)
The big question: Can the Wizards find a compromise on Trae Young’s and Anthony Davis’ next contracts?
Wizards fans should circle two dates on the offseason calendar: June 23 and Aug. 6.
June 23 is the deadline for Young to either exercise his $49 million player option or become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
“We have good relationships with his reps,” Wizards’ GM Will Dawkins told Mark Medina of EssentiallySports. “So we’ve had communication on what it would look like to be a Wizard because he really wanted to be here, and that was important to us. And we want to make sure everybody feels comfortable and builds that partnership and relationship until we have any real conversations.”
Young is eligible to sign a three-year, $156.9 million extension until June 30, with the first year of that deal replacing the player option for next season. Young could also opt in and sign an extension after free agency begins, delaying the start of a new contract until the 2027-28 season. Or Young could decline the option, signing for less but with the benefit of up to five guaranteed years.
After 76 games in 2024-25 with the Atlanta Hawks, Young will play the fewest games of his career this season, In five games as a Wizard, he has averaged 15.2 points in 20.8 minutes per game.
Davis, meanwhile, cannot become a free agent but is eligible to sign a four-year extension Aug. 6. The first year of the extension would replace a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28.
The 33-year-old Davis, who has yet to make his Wizards debut, has failed to reach 60 games in five of the past six seasons. But when healthy, Davis remains a two-way force. According to ESPN Research, Davis has averaged at least two blocks and one steal in 11 seasons. That trails only Hall of Famer Hakeem Olajuwon since blocks and steals were first tracked during the 1973-74 season.
The Wizards have seven players on first-round rookie contracts and have no salary obligations starting in 2029-30. Former lottery pick Bilal Coulibaly is eligible for an extension this summer, and 2024 No. 2 pick Alex Sarr becomes eligible next offseason.
Free agents: Anthony Gill, D’Angelo Russell ($6 million player option), Jamir Watkins ($2.2 million team option), Trae Young ($49 million player option), Sharife Cooper (restricted)
