Women's NCAA championship game predictions: South Carolina or UCLA — and what will decide the title?
PHOENIX — It’s South Carolina vs. UCLA — with a national championship on the line. On Sunday, the two No. 1 seeds clash in the NCAA title game (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in a matchup of powerhouse programs with plenty of experience that have spent this season in the spotlight. South Carolina is seeking its…
PHOENIX — It’s South Carolina vs. UCLA — with a national championship on the line.
On Sunday, the two No. 1 seeds clash in the NCAA title game (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in a matchup of powerhouse programs with plenty of experience that have spent this season in the spotlight. South Carolina is seeking its fourth NCAA title. UCLA is looking for its first.
The Gamecocks advanced after snapping UConn’s 54-game winning streak Friday, a victory defined by South Carolina’s outstanding defensive game plan but largely overshadowed by sideline drama. At the end of the game, the teams’ two legendary coaches, Geno Auriemma and Dawn Staley, got into a heated exchange.
In the late game, UCLA persevered over Texas 51-44. Senior Lauren Betts was a star on both ends of the court, recording 15 points and 10 rebounds on 70% field goal shooting. She added a critical block with 20 seconds left to keep the Bruins up three.
Which players might step up Sunday? What are the key matchups that will determine whether the Bruins or Gamecocks cut down the nets? Our experts, Andrea Adelson, Kareem Copeland, Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel, answer those questions and more with a full breakdown of the national championship game. And come back when the game tips off for live analysis from courtside.
Who is the most important player in the game?
Copeland: Raven Johnson. The South Carolina defense needs to continue to play at an elite level to knock off the offensively prolific Bruins. Johnson allows coach Dawn Staley to play games with her defensive schemes, and Friday night was the perfect example. Johnson guarded 6-foot-2 AP National Player of the Year Sarah Strong for stretches, and the 5-foot-8 point guard held her ground and helped throw the UConn offense out of whack. Staley doesn’t want UCLA to play inside-out through Betts, and the coach will throw timely double-teams from a variety of angles to keep the expected lottery pick guessing. Johnson is key to that, and her ability to defend bigs allows South Carolina to play a small lineup in stretches without going soft inside. “That means everything to us,” Staley said Saturday.
Voepel: Betts. The senior center has averaged 22.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 3.0 blocks while shooting 70.1% in the NCAA tournament. In some early-season games, she didn’t get the touches inside she needed, but the Bruins didn’t let that issue linger. For most of this season, Betts has stepped up every time UCLA has needed her, including in the national semifinal win over Texas. Betts will need to be at an All-American level offensively and defensively, especially against sophomore forward Joyce Edwards, who has been a force for South Carolina.
Creme: Agot Makeer. The freshman guard has been the X factor for South Carolina in the NCAA tournament. She averaged 7.2 points this season but has scored 14.6 points in the tournament, including 14 on Friday in the biggest game of her career. It was the fifth time in the tournament that she scored in double digits after just three such outings during the regular season. Makeer has become a third scorer to alleviate pressure from Joyce Edwards and Ta’Niya Latson. Makeer’s defense will also be a key against the Bruins. Staley mixed up her defense against UConn, putting Johnson on Strong in spots because the coach was confident in Makeer guarding guard Azzi Fudd. Strong and Fudd combined to shoot 7 of 31. Makeer can be an effective double-teamer against Betts with her size, and Makeer can recover to UCLA shooters thanks to her athleticism.
How does South Carolina come back from the emotional high of beating UConn?
Copeland: Facing UConn, which beat South Carolina in last year’s title game, was motivating, but it didn’t seem like the Gamecocks were satisfied in the locker room. Johnson is the unquestioned leader, and she’s on a mission to end her career with a title, but it’s not just about herself. She and Latson won three high school championships together before they were reunited this season. Johnson wants Latson to have that feeling as much as she wants it for herself, and that was the primary reason for Johnson transferring from Florida State.
South Carolina doesn’t look like a team that will have a letdown after beating UConn.
Voepel: Historically, it has been difficult for teams that beat UConn in the semifinals to win the final. That’s partly because defeating the Huskies can feel like winning the national championship. UConn lost in the national semis 11 times before Friday, and only three teams that beat the Huskies in that game then won the NCAA title: Notre Dame in 2018 and 2001, and Tennessee in 1996.
The Gamecocks seemed to have a good handle on their emotions after beating UConn because that win didn’t surprise them. They didn’t feel like underdogs despite the Huskies being unbeaten. That mentality can help prepare them to repeat that intensity in facing UCLA.
Adelson: South Carolina clearly had motivation to beat UConn after what happened in the title game last year, but this is a veteran team that knows how to stay focused on the ultimate goal, winning a national title. Staley reminded her players after they lost in the SEC tournament championship game that the last time they lost in that game, in 2022, they won the national title. Players have spoken repeatedly about that game providing a reset. Beating UConn does not give them the national championship, and they all know that. “If we come in with the same mindset and tenacity we did yesterday, I think we’ll be good,” Johnson said.
Creme: Instinct says the Gamecocks have enough experience and focus to recover quickly and be ready Sunday afternoon. Yet, I can’t help but think back to 2017, when Mississippi State expended so much physical and emotional energy to beat an undefeated UConn in the national semifinals and then lost 67-55 against South Carolina. On Saturday, Staley said Johnson was exhausted after guarding Fudd and Strong for 26 minutes. Recovery might not be easy. The Auriemma-Staley sideline incident will have little or no effect on how South Carolina approaches UCLA, but matching the intensity it took to beat the Huskies might be difficult.
3:14
Analyzing national championship matchup, South Carolina vs. UCLA
SEC Network’s Nell Fortner, Mike Neighbors and Alyssa Lang discuss what to watch for as the Gamecocks and Bruins are set to battle for a national title.
What must South Carolina do to win?
Adelson: Texas laid out a blueprint in the semifinal with the way it played defense, turning UCLA over 23 times and holding the Bruins to more than 30 points below their scoring average. It just so happened Texas played worse offensively. So if South Carolina plays with the same defensive intensity and tenacity that got it the win over UConn, the Gamecocks will find themselves in good shape. Even UCLA coach Cori Close said at her pregame news conference that despite their own defensive performance, Texas ended up with 21 more shots. “I don’t think that we’ll be able to do that against South Carolina,” Close said.
Copeland: Dominate defensively. This might be my overriding theme for all these questions, but UCLA’s strength has been overwhelming teams with its offensive efficiency. The Bruins have the offensive structure that teams dream of — a transcendent center surrounded by shooters and a heady senior point guard in Kiki Rice that knows how to direct traffic. If South Carolina can contain Betts and limit clean looks on the perimeter, that puts the Gamecocks in position for victory. Staley’s team seems better poised to win a low-scoring slugfest than the high-flying Bruins.
Creme: One of the keys to the Gamecocks success the last two years is their ability to win in so many ways. Just in this NCAA tournament the wins have looked different. Great shooting (10-of-14 on 3-pointers) carried South Carolina against Oklahoma, with Edwards scoring just eight points. Against TCU, Edwards was dominant with 24 points and the Gamecocks had 52 rebounds. Defense led the way on Friday in beating UConn. That, again, will be paramount in beating the Bruins, particularly limiting Betts, but the Gamecocks have shown the scoring acumen to win in the unlucky event of shootout. Adaptability might be South Carolina’s most valuable championship ingredient.
Voepel: South Carolina was in attack mode from the tip against UConn and it translated to a 22-6 edge in free throw attempts. Latson drew a team-high six fouls, and then hit 10 of 10 free throws. If the Gamecocks get that kind of edge against UCLA, that will go a long way to helping them win the championship.
What must UCLA do to win?
Creme: Betts has been UCLA’s best player for two seasons, and she was Friday against Texas. But she didn’t get the ball enough. Betts, who scored 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting, and Close said as much after the game, indicating getting Betts more touches needs to be a priority. Those 10 field goal attempts were three below her season average. With her 6-7 frame and pro-ready ability to score in the post, Betts was the Bruins’ biggest advantage against the Longhorns, and she will be in Sunday’s title game. Even if she is doubled, as Staley alluded South Carolina might utilize as part of its defensive strategy, Betts is an adept passer and showcased that against Texas. Two of the biggest plays of Friday’s game were fourth quarter 3-pointers — first by Rice to give the Bruins a 36-28 lead with 9:04 remaining, and then by Gianna Kneepkens with 4:36 left for a 45-32 UCLA advantage. Both came off Betts’ assists. Whether scoring or setting up her teammates, all things for the Bruins’ offense must flow through their senior center.
Copeland: Play fast. South Carolina wants to set up its defense and be disruptive with its athletic versatility. The counter is to not give the Gamecocks time to do so and even get cross-matched in transition. Rice is probably the key to doing so, facilitating to find shooters Kneepkens and Gabriela Jaquez with space. If Rice excels and forces South Carolina to keep Johnson dedicated to her point-guard counterpart, that could keep the Gamecock from playing free safety and helping direct the defense in other ways. UCLA has to knock down shots on the perimeter, which could keep the helpers from swarming Betts. If she can also play well in that scenario, it becomes a pick-your-poison proposition for South Carolina.
Voepel: Sounds simple but the key is making shots. The Huskies shot 31.1% against the Gamecocks, their worst shooting performance in an NCAA tournament game since 2022. That was in a second-round game and didn’t cost them. It was very costly Friday. Similarly, Texas lost to UCLA by shooting just 30.8%.
Against South Carolina, the Bruins need to finish their shots strong, get to the line and convert from behind the arc. It’s not that they can’t win a defensive battle against the Gamecocks, because they did against Texas. But this championship game feels like it could be decided by just how well UCLA can execute its offense.
1:16
Ta’Niya Latson details how South Carolina’s defense suffocates UConn
After leading the Gamecocks in the victory against the Huskies, Latson emphasizes how playing team defense was key in getting their spot in the natty.
Which team will win?
Adelson: South Carolina 65, UCLA 63
The importance of having experience in games like this cannot be overstated, and that is what South Carolina has over UCLA. That and the way it has played defense for the bulk of the season — and the versatility with which it can play on that end — will be the difference.
Copeland: South Carolina 67, UCLA 60
Experience. Defense. Depth. All those categories favor the Gamecocks. South Carolina has the institutional knowledge of the situation even if two starters are transfers in their first year with the program. And Ta’Niya Latson and Madina Okot have assimilated quickly. South Carolina has the length to disrupt the 6-7 Lauren Betts and the athleticism on the perimeter to keep the Bruins’ elite shooters from getting clean looks.
Creme: South Carolina 62, UCLA 59
The Gamecocks have a little more experience, a little more depth and a little more versatility. That will mean a little margin of victory. The Gamecocks get a fourth title in a close game.
Philippou: South Carolina 63, UCLA 57
The Gamecocks’ defensive masterclass against the Huskies will carry over into the title game against the Bruins, who will be held below 60 points for the second time this weekend. Unlike Texas, South Carolina has too many weapons on the offensive end — and experience on the sport’s biggest stage — that it won’t be able to be fully shutdown.
Voepel: South Carolina 70, UCLA 65
The Gamecocks looked so locked in defensively against UConn, you lean toward them repeating that success in the championship game.
