Back to the future: Repicking the 2016 NHL draft
Rachel Kryshak Close Rachel Kryshak ESPN Rachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective. and Greg Wyshynski Close Greg Wyshynski Senior…
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Rachel Kryshak
Close
Rachel Kryshak
ESPN
- Rachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
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Greg Wyshynski
Multiple Authors
It has been almost 10 years since the 2016 NHL draft. In that span, hockey teams and fans have seen deep picks become star players and “sure things” become anything but that.
In their NHL 2016 redraft, ESPN’s Rachel Kryshak and Greg Wyshynski reshuffle the picks with the benefit of hindsight, taking into account what teams were looking for at the time and how these players have performed for the past decade.
Greg Wyshynski: It has been 10 years since the 2016 NHL draft was held in Buffalo. Just to carbon date this: The Sabres weren’t even considered Stanley Cup contenders then! What do you remember from what is now commonly referred to as the Olli Juolevi Draft?
Rachel Kryshak: I was finishing my undergrad, after interning with MLSE in the summer of 2015, and watching my childhood team tear things to the ground in the hopes of getting an elite goal scorer. Little did I know where we would be 10 years later, a singular playoff series won and a fan base that is angrier now than it was back then.
GW: All right, let’s take a look at who went where and where we’d redraft them:
RK: Auston Matthews. Toronto does this, again. Hart Trophy, captain, on track to become the franchise’s all-time leader in nearly every statistical category and a wonderful community ambassador. He’s the most talented player to ever wear the Maple Leaf and probably will be the last to wear No. 34 in Toronto.
GW: Auston Matthews. I was thinking about hot-shotting someone into this spot after two straight seasons of goal-scoring decline for Matthews while playing through injuries. Though I’m a little concerned by that, and the fact his points-per-60 minutes also dipped to a career low in 2025-26, let’s all remember that he’s Auston Freakin’ Matthews. He has scored 428 goals in 689 NHL games. No one in this draft comes close to that generational-level goal scoring.
RK: Matthew Tkachuk. For the purposes of this redraft, we’re going to pretend that Tkachuk doesn’t bolt out of Canada at the first opportunity he gets.
Tkachuk is the definition of an impact player who is a nightmare to play against. He is one of the most skilled “rats” of the century, and gives his team an element that is difficult to play against, while dragging everyone into the fight. It feels as if Winnipeg has some success with the American trio: Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Connor Hellebuyck. I debated Charlie McAvoy here, but Tkachuk’s ability to tilt the game unlike many in the NHL was too much to pass up.
GW: Adam Fox. For the purposes of this redraft, we’ll also assume Fox was willing to play for someone other than the New York Rangers. If we had done this exercise in 2024, there’s not even a scintilla of debate about Fox being the best defenseman in the draft and, potentially, the second-best player in that draft year: two-time Norris finalist with one trophy win and a 70-points-plus defenseman.
But his stats have suffered as the Rangers have in the standings, and the stigma he carries from his 4 Nations Face-Off criticism to his Olympic snub has tarnished his shine. I still think he’s an outstanding defenseman, to the point where he’d go higher than other stars from 2016. Finding a foundational player on your blue line is tough. But Fox was, and is, that player.
RK: Charlie McAvoy. This was a legitimate debate between defensemen for me. Like you said, if we’re doing this two years ago, it is Fox. But it’s hard to ignore McAvoy’s impact. McAvoy doesn’t have the hardware that Fox does, but he played in a tough division, has performed in the playoffs and is reliable in every situation.
Fox is unfairly penalized for his perceived defensive miscues, especially when his offensive impact more than makes up for it. On the other hand, McAvoy is underrated because he doesn’t put up the gaudy numbers, yet is a more impactful defensive player and plays tough minutes.
GW: Matthew Tkachuk. Like you referenced earlier, Rachel, it’s impossible to see Matthew Tkachuk partying at the Elbo Room and believe he wouldn’t break a land speed record getting out of Manitoba if the Jets drafted him. But I think he’d fancy Columbus as a college town. Tkachuk would have given the Blue Jackets a discernible personality for the first time in franchise history, as well as the second-best forward in the ’16 draft.
RK: Adam Fox. This could have gone either way, and yes, like Tkachuk, we’re pretending that Fox would play on an Alberta team that drafts him.
The thought of Fox passing the puck to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is a fairytale. Fox’s numbers would be close to Cale Makar‘s if he plays with them, and Edmonton would have a defenseman who is not only capable of moving the puck well, but at an elite level. One has to wonder how many more Stanley Cup Final runs the Oilers would have had if they had a Norris Trophy-level defender playing on their blue line — and if they might have won one along the way.
GW: Charlie McAvoy. I’m a huge McAvoy fan. I’m not sure there’s a player in the league who has taken more pucks to the maw than McAvoy. I don’t think he’s as offensively dynamic as Fox, but McAvoy can put up points, play a ton of minutes and he’s “got that dog in him.” Could you imagine a player with McAvoy’s two-way game and physicality as part of McDavid’s supporting cast in one of those Cup runner-up runs?
RK: Tage Thompson. It feels as if the Canucks would really like a mulligan on this one, especially given the current lack of centers within the organization. Thompson’s play in Buffalo far exceeded reasonable expectations based on his development trajectory in St. Louis. A big center with size, a great shot and a soft set of hands is a dangerous combination.
I don’t think anyone thought Thompson would be an Olympic-level talent, but he has been a key reason for Buffalo’s resurgence in the standings as a true No. 1 center.
GW: Tage Thompson. There’s a certain irony here, the Canucks going from the draft’s biggest bust (Olli Juolevi, who played only 41 games) to one of 2016’s biggest steals. Thompson went 26th in the original draft. As the sixth highest goal scorer in his class (214 in 526 games), the late-bloomer moves up 21 spots in the redraft.
6. Calgary Flames
2016 Pick: Matthew Tkachuk
RK: Clayton Keller. Keller was one of the more underappreciated players in the NHL until recently. He’s one of the top producers in this draft, a dual-threat scorer and playmaker. The Flames would love to have his offensive capabilities in their lineup, and there are very clearly no loyalty issues to worry about.
GW: Jesper Bratt. From a pure talent standpoint, few players can match Bratt in the 2016 draft. He’s an exceptional puck handler and a dynamic playmaker (515 points in 630 games), especially when the Devils get their rush offense going. In 2016, the Flames would have gladly added his skillset to a collection of offensive players that included the late Johnny Gaudreau.
7. Arizona Coyotes
2016 Pick: Clayton Keller
RK: Alex DeBrincat. The player with the second-most goals in the draft class would usually go higher, but Debrincat’s impact is limited to his goal scoring. He needs a facilitator to have significant success, and has generally benefited from having one. His goal-scoring acumen is undeniable and given that hockey games are won and lost on the number of goals scored, that skill remains the most valuable.
GW: Clayton Keller. It has been fun to see the hockey world come to appreciate Keller’s awesome game. That happened after the Coyotes morphed into Utah’s hockey club and Keller started getting major Team USA love. He has the fourth-most points (588) of any player drafted in 2016, so even if it was the Coyotes that snagged him again he’d produce.
8. Buffalo Sabres
2016 Pick: Alexander Nylander
RK: Jesper Bratt. Talk about a late-round steal. I agree that on talent, there are maybe three players with more than him in the draft class. He’s impactful offensively and defensively and provides dual-threat capability. He’s not quite the goal scorer that Debrincat is and isn’t big either, so the nod went to the goalscorer above. But he could easily be in the Top 5, ahead of Keller and Thompson based on his defensive impact. This area of the redraft was unbelievably tough.
GW: Alex DeBrincat. In full disclosure, DeBrincat has always flummoxed me as a player evaluator. I think he’s had a tendency to be a one-dimensional player in his career … but that one dimension has netted him the second highest goal total in his draft class (292) behind Matthews. But ultimately the imbalance in his game and his size — he’s listed at 5-foot-8 — have me drafting him just a shade lower than you.
RK: Mikhail Sergachev. A top-pairing defender, with two-way impact capabilities is not exactly someone you should be trading — only to watch him become a key component of a Stanley Cup winner. Montreal certainly made the right selection, the only mistake was trading Sergachev to Tampa Bay to appease the fan base.
GW: Mikhail Sergachev. It’s Sergachev across the board. Now, maybe this time the Habs won’t trade a foundational defenseman (and a second-round pick) for Jonathan Drouin, and in the process help the Lightning to three conference titles and two Stanley Cups. Maybe.
RK: Brandon Hagel. The only thing Nathan MacKinnon needs is a winger who is just as testy as he is, plays like a human missile and can finish the plays he creates. Enter Hagel, who probably would have formed a terrifying duo on MacKinnon’s wing and given his line more two-way ability, making it matchup nightmare fuel for anyone who values winning or sanity.
GW: Jakob Chychrun. So in this this alternative history, the Avalanche draft a top young defenseman in 2016, which means they don’t draft Cale Makar in 2017, who falls to the Canucks at No. 5, who then don’t draft Quinn Hughes in 2018, who falls to No. 8, where he’s taken by the Chicago Blackhawks. I believe this is called the butterfly effect, which also might or might not be something Chychrun eats as part of his quirky diet.
RK: Jakob Chychrun. The former Senator starts his career in Ottawa and probably becomes a staple on the blue line, their power-play quarterback and a high-end defender.
GW: Brandon Hagel. It’s worth wondering if Brandon Hagel becomes Brandon Hagel if he never joins the Lightning, but his goal-scoring prowess and two-way game also were evident before he was traded there.
RK: Pierre-Luc Dubois. He’s not the player Columbus thought it was getting to be its future No. 1 center, but the Devils get a big center who can produce offense and win matchups in the middle six.
GW: Pierre-Luc Dubois. Full agreement here, Rachel. This is pre-Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes for the Devils, so they’re grabbing the best center available.
RK: Jordan Kyrou. The Canes get a player who feels as if he would fit with the organization’s modus operandi of highly skilled offensive players who dominate possession.
GW: Jordan Kyrou. Once again, we’re aligned. I’d be really curious to see what kind of player Kyrou would have become under Rod Brind’Amour’s tutelage.
14 Boston Bruins
2016 Pick: Charlie McAvoy
RK: Filip Gustavsson. The Bruins add a goaltender to the organization who develops into a reliable starting option in a tandem role.
GW: Patrik Laine. Oh, what could have been for the No. 2 pick in 2016. As it stands, Laine has 422 points in 537 career games — the eighth-best points-per-game average in his class. But 11 players from 2016 have played more games than Laine, who hasn’t hit the 60-game mark because of injuries and off-ice concerns since 2019-20. I think he still has enough to offer for the Bruins to snag him here.
RK: Filip Hronek. Minnesota adds a quality top-four defenseman with a big shot on the right side, capable of playing matchup minutes and running a secondary power play.
GW: Filip Hronek. The Wild went a few years without selecting a defenseman in the first round, with Matt Dumba in 2012 being the last one before they land Hronek here.
16. Arizona Coyotes
2016 Pick: Jakob Chychrun
RK: Patrik Laine. Arizona gets an immensely talented goal scorer, power-play weapon and top-six contributor, when healthy and performing at his best.
GW: Filip Gustavsson. Considering that the Coyotes’ goalie of the future in 2016 was a 33-year-old Mike Smith, they jump on the “Gus Bus” in the middle of the first round.
RK: Samuel Girard. Nashville drafted Girard with their second-round pick, so they clearly liked the player. One wonders what he might have become if not for a significant injury history because the puck-moving and skating abilities have always been there.
GW: Ryan Lindgren. If Laine isn’t available to the Bruins in our redraft, I bet they pounce on Lindgren at No. 14. But as it stands, the defensive defenseman tumbles to Nashville, where he becomes an essential D partner for Roman Josi as he was to Adam Fox with the Rangers.
18. Winnipeg Jets
2016 Pick: Logan Stanley
RK: Ross Colton. Taking another forward with their second pick of the first round doesn’t exactly square with organizational need, given they drafted a few highly skilled forwards in previous years, but Colton brings a more impactful element than Stanley does, and fills a hole in the 2C spot that Winnipeg has had for years.
GW: Ross Colton. Give me all the Ross Coltons. Just a solid, versatile player that you need to win in this league — which he did in Tampa Bay’s 2021 Stanley Cup run.
RK: Joseph Woll. Woll becomes the reliable backup to Ilya Sorokin, who I’m not sure the Isles were convinced would turn into the Sorokin of today, when this selection is made. Woll solves the problem of the revolving door of goalies behind Sorokin, and solidifies the Isles’ goaltending position.
GW: Samuel Girard. This is a weird one for me because I’ve always felt Girard never really fulfilled his potential … and yet 241 points in 605 games for a player taken at No. 47 is pretty great.
RK: Ryan Lindgren. You win playoff games with defenders like Lindgren, who can play with a skilled partner but can also kill penalties, block shots and defend the dangerous areas of the ice effectively.
GW: Sam Steel. If nothing else, the best name of the first round. Either the perfect moniker for a 1980s direct-to-VHS action star or a personal injury attorney.
21. Carolina Hurricanes
2016 Pick: Julien Gauthier
RK: Sam Steel. Steel is another quintessential Carolina pick, and you wonder if he hits another level offensively in Carolina’s puck possession style because the offensive skill has always been there.
GW: Brett Howden. To your point Rachel, I think Howden fits the Brind’Amour aesthetic quite well.
RK: Brett Howden. In hindsight, it feels as if Howden would have also been a fan favorite in Philadelphia with his style of play — a tough forechecker, who brings physicality, plays in the dirty areas and chips in on offense.
GW: Joseph Woll. A good pick for the Flyers at this spot, even if it’s a bad spot for Woll considering how the Flyers have developed goalies for, oh, the past 20 years.
RK: Luke Kunin. Can’t think of a better fit. Kunin is highly annoying to play against, and given that the Panthers have a desire to collect those players, Kunin is the perfect blend of defensive reliability, good speed, physical forechecking and being a thorn in the side of opponents.
GW: Trent Frederic. The Panthers get a big center to fill out the depth behind Aleksander Barkov before inevitably trading him for one of Buffalo’s top scorers and then winning multiple Stanley Cups.
RK: Taylor Raddysh. The Ducks take the player with the more projectable scoring profile, given they are the same size. He probably tops out as a bottom-six player in Anaheim, but a more productive one than their original selection.
GW: Luke Kunin. The Ducks were in a run of multiple drafts where forward depth was the focus. They took Max Jones and Sam Steel in 2016. They take Kunin here.
25. Dallas Stars
2016 Pick: Riley Tufte
RK: Dante Fabbro. Dallas has a proven ability to develop defenders and it’s hard not to wonder if Fabbro develops better in the Dallas system.
GW: Dante Fabbro. I think it’s undeniable that he would have, given their track record.
RK: Brandon Duhaime. Duhaime’s ceiling is lower than some players available, but he fits perfectly with the profile of what the Blues like in the bottom six and probably becomes a staple there.
GW: Tyson Jost. You know what? Much like Michael Che, I’ve committed to Jost. But you’re right: There’s no way GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t add Duhaime if he’s on the board.
RK: Trent Frederic. He’s big, physical, and plays a depth role on a cheap contract. His presence probably prevents the jettisoning of multiple draft picks for Tanner Jeannot and becomes a bottom-six regular in Tampa.
GW: Taylor Raddysh. Hear me out: The Lightning draft Raddysh. They sign his brother Darren Raddysh as a free agent. They corner the league on guys named after root vegetables. (Cale Makar casts a jealous eye …)
RK: Beck Malenstyn. Instead of being their fifth-round selection, the speedster is their first-round selection, which probably leads to him getting more opportunities to prove himself and becoming a bottom-six staple. I do think Puljujarvi gets a serious look here given Washington’s pattern of swinging on skill late in the first round.
GW: Jesse Puljujarvi. Say it with me: “They. Can. Fix. Him.” Puljujarvi was drafted No. 4 by the Oilers in 2016. He’d go on to score only 128 points in 387 games, and was out of the NHL by 2025-26, playing in the Swiss league.
Though I won’t completely take him off the hook for his lackluster career, I think the Oilers’ development of Puljujarvi — or lack thereof — was a huge factor in his being a draft disappointment. He’s exactly the kind of player the Capitals bring in with low expectations, and turn into a key contributor.
29. Boston Bruins
2016 Pick: Trent Frederic
RK: Jesse Puljujarvi. Between him and Jost, the Bruins are absolutely going with the bigger winger who has offensive skills. He’s not the prototypical Bruins by any stretch, but there is value this late.
GW: Logan Stanley. There is absolutely zero chance the Bruins don’t draft a 6-foot-7 defensive defenseman to learn under Zdeno Chara for a few seasons.
30. Anaheim Ducks
2016 Pick: Sam Steel
RK: Connor Ingram. Ingram has been a great story and provides valuable minutes in a backup role. Given Anaheim’s demonstrated ability to develop goalies, perhaps Ingram pans out a little sooner and becomes slightly more impactful.
GW: Connor Ingram. Great story, solid goalie, and someone the Ducks could wait on to develop considering they had John Gibson at the time.
