How to bet the Zurich Classic of New Orleans: Should you back the Fitzpatrick pairing?

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a puzzle that can be difficult to piece together.

It is the PGA Tour’s only official team event, featuring 80 teams of two players competing over four rounds at TPC Louisiana. The tournament alternates formats each day with four-ball (best ball) played in Rounds 1 and 3 and foursomes (alternate shot) played in Rounds 2 and 4.

You can look at the two best players in the field and bet accordingly. That’s how you end up with the Fitzpatrick brothers at +1175 and feel good about it, with Matt fresh off his second win of the season.

TPC Louisiana is a different setup, though. Redundant skill sets don’t typically win this format. Two elite ball strikers who both have neutral putting games sound great until you’re watching them grind through four ball rounds manufacturing birdie looks that nobody converts.

The course is forgiving enough off the tee and around the green that approach play and par 5 execution are doing the heavy lifting. What separates contenders is having one player who creates the looks and the other who finishes them.

I’m going with a light card this week, with one pairing standing out above the rest.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

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Ryan Gerard and Sudarshan Yellamaraju: Both Top 5 +320 and To win +1750

This duo is built exactly this way. Gerard is 12th in strokes gained approach, while Yellamaraju is top 15 or better in par 5 scoring, and putts made from 10-15 feet (beneficial on these large greens). One guy attacks the course, while the other converts, with neither bleeding strokes anywhere critical.

These odds feel like a misprice. The Fitzpatricks gets the attention because of the name and Matt’s recent form, two wins in the last three starts. Gerard and Yellamaraju get the better number because of course fit.

How to play it: Top 5 is a mid-unit play, while winning is worth a sprinkle. This is the only pairing on the board where the profile and the price both point in the same direction.

Building a profitable betting card week to week is already a challenge. Doing it in a PGA event with paired formats, the margin for error gets even thinner. That’s why I’m risking on the one pair.

That said, here are the others I considered and why I opted off.

Alex Fitzpatrick + Matt Fitzpatrick

Full odds:

• Top 10 +100

• Top 5 +210

• To win +1175

Buying the favorites for a format this chaotic isn’t enticing. Two elite ball strikes who both can’t really putt is a real problem when the course hands you birdie looks all day and you need someone to actually make them. Top 10 is a coin flip, and Top 5 is the only line that makes me pause, but not enough to pull the trigger.

Keith Mitchell + Brandt Snedeker

Full odds:

• Top 20 -114

• Top 10 +230

• Top 5 +510

• To win +3500

This pair made it on my long list because +3500 looks juicy as the textbook complementary pair on paper. Mitchell is top 20 off the tee and on approach, while Snedeker is elite around the green and putting. Mitchell could weigh the team down as he’s 105th in putting, as Snedeker may be solid with the short game but his recent form is concerning, with multiple missed cuts as of late. The short game value is real, but the ball striking floor is too low.

The overall idea is right: Mitchell ball strikes, Snedeker putts, but Snedeker can’t hold up as an iron player in alternate shot rounds anymore. The pair’s profiles work in theory, but I worry the execution risk is too real.

Max McGreevy + Kevin Roy

Full odds:

• Top 20 -110

• Top 10 +240

• Top 5 +530

• To win +3700

McGreevy fits the course and +3700 is a good number, making them an underrated duo. McGreevy is top 20 on approach and par 5 scoring, exactly what this course rewards. Roy is top 35 around the green and putting, which is fine as a supporting cast. The issue is Roy’s approach is 102nd, a real liability in alternate shots. When it’s his turn to hit the irons, the pairing could leak. It’s an interesting value but they have a clear weakness that could still contend for a Top 20, but would need help to finish Top 10 or better.

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Final thoughts

Top 20s (with ties) are available, but I’m not laying juice in a tournament where the format changes in a paired event. There are just too many ways to get beat. If Gerard and Yellamaraju run, great. If they don’t, the math was never screaming anything more than a calculated small play, which is exactly how betting is supposed to work.