Where every first-round series ranks, plus biggest questions

It has been a little over a week since the start of the 2026 NBA playoffs, and the first-round series have not disappointed.

The Los Angeles Lakers failed to close their series against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, as the Rockets forced a Game 5 back to L.A. on Wednesday. The winner of that series will face the winner of the Oklahoma City Thunder–Phoenix Suns series, which could be decided Monday, with the defending champion Thunder up 3-0.

In the East, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons have struggled to find their rhythm against the No. 8-seeded Orlando Magic. Plus, the Cleveland Cavaliers–Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks–Atlanta Hawks series are tied at 2-2.

With some exciting Round 1 matchups still ahead, our NBA insiders answered the biggest questions surrounding each series. ESPN’s Bobby Marks broke down which free agents have raised or lowered their stock so far, and analyst Zach Kram ranked the series based on their upset potential.

Jump to:
Biggest questions: East | West
Ranking every series | Free agency stock watch

Eastern Conference

(8) Orlando Magic lead (1) Detroit Pistons, 2-1

Can the Pistons win without Jalen Duren at his best?

The Magic have given the Pistons a taste of their own physicality, stifling defense and opportunistic offense. Outside of the seven-block first quarter and 30-3 third-quarter run that helped win Game 2 and the desperate fourth-quarter rally that fell just short in Game 3, the Pistons have not looked like the team that won 60 games this season.

One major reason is that All-Star big man Jalen Duren has been a relative nonfactor who has been outplayed by Orlando’s Wendell Carter Jr. In Game 3, Duren had five blocks but fouled out and finished with eight points, nine rebounds and just 3-for-10 shooting. This is a far cry from the 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 65% shooting he averaged during the regular season. Making matters worse, Carter had a huge game with 14 points and 17 rebounds, including eight offensive rebounds in Game 3. He was such a problem for Duren and Isaiah Stewart that coach J.B Bickerstaff went to Paul Reed early in the third quarter for a spark.

Cade Cunningham needs all the help he can get. Bickerstaff, who, along with assistant Luke Walton, sat with Duren for an extended time after Friday’s practice, said Duren has not been able to get free on pick-and-rolls because of Orlando packing the paint. And the Magic have further neutralized Duren with multiple players collapsing on him at times. Without Duren at his All-Star best, the Pistons will have a hard time establishing superiority in the paint on both sides of the ball. — Ohm Youngmisuk

(2) Boston Celtics lead (7) Philadelphia 76ers, 3-1

Is this series over?

It certainly seems like it. Boston has controlled the action throughout this series, generating tons of 3s. And outside of Game 2’s 13-for-50 showing from long range, the Celtics are knocking them down. While Sunday’s return of Joel Embiid, less than three weeks after an emergency appendectomy, was a great story, it didn’t mask the overall deficit facing Philadelphia. The Celtics have created a math problem that the 76ers have struggled to solve.

Game 3, in particular, seemed like the moment when things swung away from Philadelphia. That was a pitched battle that either team could win, only for Boston to pull it out with remarkable shotmaking by Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard. Barring a massive change in fortunes, the Celtics should soon be headed to the East semifinals for the ninth time in 10 years. — Tim Bontemps

(3) New York Knicks are tied with (6) Atlanta Hawks, 2-2

Have the Knicks unlocked Karl-Anthony Towns after an up-and-down season?

If Game 4 is any indication, perhaps so. Towns was used in a way we hadn’t seen before, at least not en masse. He was operating from the high post, dishing and diming (10 assists) to OG Anunoby for easy buckets.

But the move didn’t seem intentional — at least by the way Mike Brown talked about it postgame — as if it was almost by happenstance as opposed to a change in mindset that maximized Towns. When he’s on, it lessens the Knicks’ dependency on Jalen Brunson‘s offense.

Through four games of the series, Towns’ production exceeds his career playoff numbers. Should he get even more touches this series? The never-ending question remains. — Vincent Goodwill

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers are tied with (5) Toronto Raptors, 2-2

How will James Harden and Donovan Mitchell respond?

Harden and Mitchell entered this postseason ready to rewrite narratives. Neither star has missed the postseason — 17 consecutive years in Harden’s case and nine years for Mitchell — but neither has won a championship, with their shortcomings often highlighted during their teams’ failures. Yet, with a chance to seize control of their first playoff series together after winning the first two games at home, Mitchell and Harden turned in duds in Games 3 and 4. They combined for 22 turnovers during the two games in Toronto, and Harden has finished with more turnovers than made field goals in two straight games.

Sure, the Raptors have made some adjustments to turn up the pressure on the Cavs’ star backcourt and Scottie Barnes has been excellent defensively. But for Cleveland to go on a deep run, Harden and Mitchell need to find ways to be more efficient and productive in order to exorcise their previous postseason demons. — Jamal Collier

---

Western Conference

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder lead (8) Phoenix Suns, 3-0

Can the Thunder get another first-round sweep?

To the surprise of nobody, the Thunder have essentially claimed their spot in the conference semifinals. The only remaining question is whether Oklahoma City can complete a first-round sweep for the third straight season. Coach Mark Daigneault has yet to lose a game in the first round, as Oklahoma City has an 11-0 record against 8-seeds over the past three years.

The Suns have significantly exceeded expectations this season, earning a playoff spot when it was all but assumed they’d be sending a lottery pick to the Memphis Grizzlies. Intense competitive pride has been a big part of the Suns’ success, so Phoenix will do all it can to put up a fight in Game 4. — Tim MacMahon

(2) San Antonio Spurs lead (7) Portland Trail Blazers, 3-1

Can the Spurs eliminate Portland in five games?

San Antonio needs to finish this series if it wants to avoid another long trip to Portland and also buy time to heal some nagging thumb injuries to guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper before a second-round series against Minnesota or Denver.

San Antonio will be motivated to handle business in front of its home crowd, which hasn’t seen a series-clinching win since 2017. Victor Wembanyama‘s return from concussion protocol for Game 4 was important for getting him back into the flow and physicality of postseason basketball. Wembanyama has been dominant defensively in this series, limiting Portland to 5-of-30 shooting and just 10 points whenever he’s contesting a shot.

Meanwhile, veteran point guard De’Aaron Fox is finally finding his playoff groove, coming off just his third career postseason outing with a 25-5-5 line. — Michael C. Wright

(6) Minnesota Timberwolves lead (3) Denver Nuggets, 3-1

How are the Timberwolves doing this to Denver?

Individual defense from Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. McDaniels has been draped all over Jamal Murray to the degree that Denver coach David Adelman has been complaining about the lack of physical screen-setting from his role players, who haven’t been able to keep McDaniels off the Nuggets’ All-Star guard.

It has resulted in an inefficient 33-of-89 shooting series from Murray — 37% overall and 26.5% on 3s. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to pick up the slack against the length and physicality of Gobert. Jokic missed all six of his fourth-quarter shots in Game 4, dropping his series percentage to an uncharacteristic 39.1%. (Jokic is a career 56.1% converter who once made 63% of his shots in a season.)

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are in a prime position to make the second round but lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles and don’t know when they’ll get Anthony Edwards back after he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee during Game 4. — Anthony Slater

(4) Los Angeles Lakers lead (5) Houston Rockets, 3-1

What is the urgency for Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic to return after the Lakers’ defeat in Game 4?

After Reaves was upgraded to questionable before Game 3 and again going into Game 4 but has yet to appear in the series as he recovers from a Grade 2 left oblique strain, will the Rockets’ dominant victory to get back in the series push him back into the lineup?

“I think ultimately the athlete has to feel confidence,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said Sunday when asked what components are being considered in Reaves’ return. “And that’s always the final hurdle coming back from an injury, is the psychological component of it.”

Should Reaves play in Game 5, it would be a day shy of a month since he suffered the injury against the Thunder — still a rapid recovery considering the 4-6 week rehabilitation window that sources told ESPN the injury would require. Would Reaves’ presence, combined with the home crowd, be enough to help L.A. eliminate Houston in five, or have the Rockets found something that could make the series go the distance? And if Houston can extend the series to a Game 6 or 7, is there any possibility that Doncic can return from his Grade 2 left hamstring strain?

Redick said Sunday that there is no update from the team on Doncic’s return timeline, which is currently unknown. But based on the incremental progress Redick shared Sunday — that Doncic “was able to move a little bit today on the court, which, most of the stuff [before] had been standstill” — it certainly doesn’t sound like he is close. — Dave McMenamin

Free Agency stock watch

With nearly 54% of upcoming free agents appearing in the playoffs, let’s take a look at players who have improved or hurt their stock this offseason:

Stock up

Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota Timberwolves
CJ McCollum, Atlanta Hawks

We are seeing how a midseason trade can impact the playoffs, or, in the case of Dosunmu, become the catalyst for a breakout series.

Acquired from the Chicago Bulls at the February deadline, Dosumnu scored 43 points off the bench in the Wolves’ Game 4 win, the second most by a reserve in playoff history. For the series, Dosunmu is averaging 22.8 points on 64% shooting from the field and 52.9% from 3.

Dosunmu is eligible to sign a three-year, $52.4 million extension before June 30. Because he was acquired in a trade and has Bird rights, Minnesota is allowed to exceed the cap, luxury tax and apron to re-sign the guard. The Timberwolves are projected to be $27 million below the second apron.

The 34-year-old McCollum, meanwhile, has turned back the clock.

Before the Hawks’ Game 4 loss to New York, McCollum had scored the second-most points through three games in Hawks playoff history. (McCollum is averaging 24.5 points in the series.)

McCollum, an unrestricted free agent, can sign up to a three-year, $115.9 million extension through June 30. Atlanta can re-sign him and exceed the cap because of his Bird rights.

---

Stock down

Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Payton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns

The playoffs should have been where Duren, Watson and Williams improved their restricted free agent standing this summer.

Duren appeared in his first All-Star Game and is a candidate for All-NBA but has seen his scoring decrease from 19.5 points per game in the regular season to 9.0 in the playoffs. More importantly, Duren is averaging only 6.7 points in the paint, down from 14.6 during the regular season.

The Nuggets’ Watson and the Suns’ Williams had strong regular seasons but have not played in the playoffs because of injuries.

Before injuring his hamstring Feb. 4, Watson was averaging 14.9 points (17.3 in 40 starts) while shooting 49.6% from the field and 41.7% on 3s. Watson shot 53% on corner 3s, sixth in the NBA this season among players with at least 1,000 minutes.

Williams appeared in a career-high 60 games this season and played a significant role in Phoenix’s improvement from 26th to sixth in second-chance points.

— Bobby Marks

Where every series ranks

One major theme of the first round is parity: 15 of the 16 teams have won a game, and five of the underdogs already have multiple wins.

So, at this midway point of the first round, let’s rerank the series by their upset potential, from the lowest probability for a surprise to the highest:

8. Thunder 3, Suns 0

Whichever team faced the Thunder was always going to have the toughest time of any lower seed in the first round, and through three games, a Suns upset doesn’t seem any more likely than when the series began. Phoenix hasn’t led in the second half of any game, and the Thunder are now 11-0 in the first round in the past three seasons.

7. Spurs 3, Trail Blazers 1

With a 17-point lead at halftime of Game 4, the Trail Blazers’ odds of an upset were ticking up. And then San Antonio outscored Portland 73-35 in the second half, all but ending any chance of an upset bid. With Victor Wembanyama healthy, San Antonio has just one loss since March 1 (to Denver in an overtime classic).

6. Celtics 3, 76ers 1

Despite Joel Embiid’s return, Philadelphia was no match for Boston in Game 4 on Sunday, as the Celtics cruised to a 32-point win. The 76ers’ only win in this series came when they shot 49% on 3-pointers, and they’d be hard-pressed to turn in that kind of performance for three more games in a row.

5. Cavaliers 2, Raptors 2

The Raptors proved they could win with offense, scoring 43 points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 to turn a two-point lead into a comfortable 22-point victory. And they proved they could win with defense, grinding out a 93-89 victory in Game 4 despite shooting just 4-for-30 (13%) on 3-pointers. Cleveland is still favored because of its talent and home-court advantage, but Toronto is very much alive.

4. Knicks 2, Hawks 2

Before this series began, I picked the Knicks to win in seven, so they’re right on track for that result after splitting the first four games. The Knicks should still be favored to advance, as their two wins were by a combined 27 points, while Atlanta’s victories were each by a single point. But the Hawks have settled on a strong six-man core, in their five starters plus Jonathan Kuminga, while the Knicks’ rotation remains unsettled — particularly with regard to Mikal Bridges, who has averaged just 7.3 points in the series. Atlanta’s upset chance is definitely still in play.

3. Magic 2, Pistons 1

In 2003, the top-seeded Pistons fell behind 3-1 in the first round against Orlando, before staving off the upset with three consecutive wins. They might need a similar comeback this year. Not only do the Magic have a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded Pistons, but the results don’t look like a fluke. The Magic have earned their two wins and controlled most of the series; they’re finally healthy and looking like the contender that so many expected of them this season. All five Orlando starters are averaging double-digit points in this series, while only three of Detroit’s are.

2. Timberwolves 3, Nuggets 1

On the one hand, the Timberwolves are just one win away from their second upset of the Nuggets in three years. And the Nuggets look lost, after two noncompetitive losses in Minnesota: Nuggets X factor Aaron Gordon is hurt, and the Wolves have bottled up Denver’s league-best offense.

But on the other hand, Minnesota will have to get that last win without Anthony Edwards, who’s out for multiple weeks after hyperextending his knee in Game 4, and without Donte DiVincenzo, who tore an Achilles in Game 4. So Minnesota is favored to pull off the upset, just because of its position in the series, but it won’t be easy without the team’s entire starting backcourt.

1. Lakers 3, Rockets 1

Although the Lakers are the No. 4 seed and the Rockets are the No. 5 seed, this would still register as an upset. Both oddsmakers and pundits largely expected a Houston win in this series because of injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. But now Reaves is approaching a comeback while Houston’s leading scorer, Kevin Durant, is hurt, and the Lakers need just one more win in three tries to advance. Factor in the Lakers’ home-court advantage, and they now have the best odds of any first-round underdog.

— Zach Kram