NHL conference finals preview: Avalanche-Golden Knights, Hurricanes-Canadiens

From a starting point of 16 teams, the 2026 Stanley Cup playoff field is now down to four.

The Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights match up in the Western Conference finals, while the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens face off in the Eastern Conference finals.

Which two teams will make it to the Stanley Cup Final? Ryan S. Clark (West) and Kristen Shilton (East) are here with intel on all four teams, including goaltender confidence ratings, what we’ve learned so far about each team, X factors and more.

Western Conference finals

How they got here: Defeated Kings 4-0, defeated Wild 4-1

Goalie confidence rating: 7.5/10

It has been a bizarre ride at times for Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood in terms of how they’ve performed this postseason. On the whole, the Avalanche have lost just once, and are sixth in team save percentage in 5-on-5 play. Wedgewood has a stellar .914 save percentage. But the abnormal nature of how the Avs have arrived at this point can be best viewed through what happened against the Minnesota Wild.

Wedgewood allowed six goals in Game 1 and recovered in Game 2 to stop 29 of the 31 shots he faced. Game 3 was different, as Wedgewood allowed three goals on nine shots before the switch was made to Blackwood in what ultimately became the Avs’ first loss this postseason. Avs coach Jared Bednar started Blackwood in their Game 4 victory, before Blackwood opened Game 5 by giving up three goals on 13 shots. He was replaced by Wedgewood after the first period, and the Avs closed out the series.

The Avs will need to attain some consistency in net, as they are facing off against one of the top-three scoring teams for a consecutive series.

What we’ve learned about the Avalanche so far

Honestly, not a ton. If anything, there has been more confirmation bias about the Avalanche as they head into the Western Conference finals.

The expectation coming into the playoffs was that the Avs were the deepest team in the field. Depth has been at the center of their success, in that they’ve gotten crucial contributions from players throughout their lineup. Maybe the best example of that depth came in the series against the Wild, when four players — Nazem Kadri, Nicolas Roy, Parker Kelly and Brett Kulak — scored game-winning goals. Note that Kadri, Roy and Kulak were three of the players Avs general manager Chris MacFarland acquired ahead of the trade deadline this season.

X factor for the conference finals

Finding a breakthrough against the Golden Knights’ penalty kill. That could be among the keys to whether the Avs advance to the Stanley Cup Final — or if their season comes to an earlier end than they would prefer. Kadri’s return brought a change in what the Avs did on the extra-skater advantage. That was evident in their series against the Wild, in which they finished with a 38.5% success rate. No team has been better on the power play since May 3, when the Avs began their second-round series.

However, the Golden Knights have the best penalty kill the Avs’ power play will have seen to this point in the postseason. The Avs’ first-round opponents — the Los Angeles Kings — were 30th on the PK in the regular season, though they were third this postseason with a 90.9% success rate despite being swept. The Wild were 16th in the regular season and ended their playoff run with the second-worst PK in the postseason at the time of their departure. That’s all a bit of a contrast compared with the Golden Knights, who were seventh in the regular season and are fifth in the postseason.

Can the defensive success the Avs had against Kirill Kaprizov be replicated against Mitch Marner?

A major talking point coming out of the previous series was how a four-time 40-goal scorer in Kaprizov was virtually silenced over the final two games. He recorded a single shot in Games 4 and 5 combined after opening the series with five points through the first three contests. Kaprizov still finished the postseason ranked second in points at the time that the Wild were eliminated.

Now Colorado’s collective focus turns to Marner, who is the postseason scoring leader with 18 points. There have been three games this postseason in which Marner has gone without a point. The Anaheim Ducks kept him pointless in two games, with the most recent being Game 5. But the Golden Knights still won Game 5 before eliminating the Ducks in six. Marner had two points in Game 6 for his fifth multipoint game this postseason. Those five games have come over his past seven contests. — Clark

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How they got here: Defeated Mammoth 4-2, defeated Ducks 4-2

Goalie confidence rating: 8/10

This regular season, only the Hurricanes were better than the Golden Knights in allowing the fewest shots per game. Vegas was top three in 5-on-5 shots allowed, and top 10 in fewest scoring chances allowed and high-danger chances allowed at 5-on-5. The Knights also had a top-10 penalty kill. All this led to the idea that the Golden Knights were one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. And they were doing it without Alex Pietrangelo.

All that made the disconnect between their defensive structure and goaltending such a maddening experience. They finished the regular season with the second-lowest 5-on-5 team save percentage. That inability to bridge the defensive disconnect played a role in why they fired Bruce Cassidy in late March and hired John Tortorella, who previously coached Golden Knights goalie Carter Hart with the Philadelphia Flyers.

Hart’s performances under Tortorella in the regular season created the belief that the Golden Knights have found the answer in the crease. Hart’s performance through two rounds is proof that those methods are working. He entered the conference finals with the second-best save percentage and the sixth-best goals-against average among those with at least eight games played this postseason.

What we’ve learned about the Golden Knights so far

Scoring the most goals through May 16 along with possessing a top-five power play suggests that the Golden Knights need to control the puck. The thing is? They don’t. Beating the Ducks in the second round showed that the Golden Knights don’t need a massive amount of possession to generate scoring chances they can convert to goals.

Natural Stat Trick’s data showed the Golden Knights’ shot share for the six-game series was 43.7% in 5-on-5 play. Knowing they can get goals without needing more than 50% possession could be useful against the Avs. There were moments when the Avs’ shot share exceeded 55% against the Wild, and it was even into the 80% range at times. Having the ability to sustain pressure and consistently limit chances on one end all while knowing they can get goals without needing significant chunks of possession on the other end? This is what could make the Golden Knights the most unique challenge the Avs have faced to this point.

X factor for the conference finals

For all the understandable conversations about the superstars like Jack Eichel, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Marner in this series, there’s another discussion about the influence the bottom six could carry for both teams. Colorado has seen its bottom-six forward corps contribute in several ways. But how does Vegas’ bottom six compare?

It turns out there are some similarities. In their most recent games, the Golden Knights went with a third line that featured Tomas Hertl, Brandon Saad and Colton Sissons. It’s a group that has accounted for 12 points this postseason. Their fourth line of Nic Dowd, Keegan Kolesar and Cole Smith has six points. Those combined 18 points are the same as the bottom-six forward group the Avs used to close out Game 5 against the Wild.

Perhaps the big difference — and a possible X factor to monitor — is that the Avs have 18 different goal scorers this postseason, while the Golden Knights have 12.

Can the Golden Knights continue to be dangerous in every game scenario?

Think about how Vegas’ playoff run has gone to this point. The Knights trailed multiple times in the first round against the Utah Mammoth, only to take the series in six games. They’ve found comfort in playing without the puck and are undefeated in three overtime games this postseason.

There’s also the manner in which they’ve won those games. They’ve scored more than four goals in six of their eight wins entering the conference finals. They have top-five power-play and penalty-kill units. Couple that with the fact that Pavel Dorofeyev, Brett Howden and Marner are in the top four in goals, while Eichel and Marner are 1-2 in points. The Golden Knights will create problems for the Avalanche in ways that others have not. — Clark

Eastern Conference finals

How they got here: Defeated Senators 4-0, defeated Flyers 4-0

Goalie confidence rating: 10/10

Frederik Andersen‘s postseason performance epitomizes the phrase “no notes.” What else is there to say about the playoffs’ indisputable top goalie? He’s a perfect 8-0, with a .950 save percentage and 1.12 goals-against average — with multiple goals allowed (and by “multiple” that’s a high of two) in only four of his eight starts.

There’s no doubt the Hurricanes’ suffocating defense has helped Andersen emerge as a Conn Smythe front-runner — Carolina is giving up just 25 shots per game — but for the most part, it’s all Andersen. The 36-year-old is showing up like never before in his career and has answered critics who questioned whether he could stay healthy long enough to be the Hurricanes’ go-to guy in the postseason and whether he was the right choice over first-year phenom Brandon Bussi, who usurped Andersen as the Hurricanes’ starter through a significant portion of the regular season.

This is the time of year that truly matters, and Andersen has turned back the clock to be a formidable presence in the Hurricanes’ crease.

What we’ve learned about the Hurricanes so far

It feels almost like we barely know Carolina. It has churned through opponents so swiftly that we are just itching to see the group back in action (for potentially more than just four games at a time).

The Hurricanes have been moderately dramatic, in the sense they’ve needed overtime to secure three of their eight victories to date, but by and large they just go about their business with efficiency. It hasn’t only been Andersen throwing off Father Time — there’s also 34-year-old Taylor Hall playing like the guy who won a Hart Trophy in 2018. He leads the Canes with three goals and 12 points (10 of which came 5-on-5), and the renaissance suggests Hall knows this is his best chance at securing a championship.

Right behind Hall in terms of production is Logan Stankoven, with his seven goals in eight games. Carolina might rank eighth overall in playoff scoring, but it gets timely, balanced offense from the likes of Hall, Stankoven, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jackson Blake and others and is generating the most shots on net (34 per game) in the postseason field. The Hurricanes have a stellar penalty kill (95%) to boot, and it all just works, somehow.

Whether they fall behind and have to recover or are in control from the start, the Canes know how to reset, regroup and recapture a lead when necessary.

X factor for the conference finals

The Hurricanes’ results until now speak for themselves, but it’s time for the top line to do some talking. Carolina’s top unit of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis has yet to manufacture more than one 5-on-5 goal together through the first two rounds, minimizing the impact of what should be a dominating unit.

It’s true the Aho line has been tackling all the toughest matchups Carolina has seen, but its lone goal — in double overtime against Ottawa during Game 2 of the Canes’ first-round series — truly feels like a season ago. In the meantime, Svechnikov kicked in one power-play marker, Jarvis scored once while skating on a different line, and Aho has three total goals from two empty-net strikes and another produced seconds after a penalty ended. Again, that’s not all to say their line as a whole hasn’t done well in neutralizing Tim Stutzle and Trevor Zegras (among others) en route to this point, but Carolina would be more confident seeing them stand out at both ends of the ice.

There could be an element of (bad) luck too, given that Svechnikov/Aho/Jarvis combined have a 31-30 advantage in shots when on the ice (not to mention they’re up 85-70 in shot attempts). The creation of chances is there, and that’s good. What could come to help define Carolina’s success this round is whether it can finally get some of those pucks to find mesh.

Is rest truly an advantage?

Well, Carolina didn’t look too off balance going from four games against the Senators right into jettisoning the Flyers in four games. No, the real question is whether either of those clubs has truly challenged Carolina enough to prepare the Canes for the battle-tested team entering their building.

The Hurricanes haven’t exactly cruised their way to the conference finals — those overtime outings are proof that they can dig deep when needed. It’s a lack of adversity, perhaps, that the Hurricanes are up against. How will Carolina manage a second long layoff when it lines up across from a Montreal squad that has pounded its way through practically twice as many games and earned its lumps in the process? Whether the Hurricanes can handle the sort of emotional pushback that’s coming will be telling.

It’s one thing for outsiders to discuss what they’ve learned about a team; it’s another to determine what a team has learned about itself, especially when under duress. The Hurricanes will need to show quickly that they aren’t affected by a relatively easy ride into this conference finals. If they don’t ramp up the intensity from the hop, a hungrier group across from them could put them on the ropes for the first time this spring. — Shilton

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How they got here: Defeated Lightning 4-3, defeated Sabres 4-3

Goalie confidence rating: 9/10

Jakub Dobes was Montreal’s workhorse all season for a reason — and he has shone brighter in the playoffs.

The rookie has handled every start of the Canadiens’ run so far, getting the hook only once, from an uncharacteristically poor performance in Game 6 against Buffalo (when he allowed six goals on 33 shots). That’s the only time Jacob Fowler has had a sniff of action; barring another unforeseen circumstance, don’t expect Dobes to give up the crease anytime soon.

His 8-6 record in the postseason doesn’t truly reflect Dobes’ impact on Montreal — the .910 save percentage, 2.52 goals-against average and lack of consecutive losses are what’s setting him apart. There’s a swagger to Dobes that has frankly folded its way through the entire Canadiens lineup. He thrives under pressure and performs his best in a series’ toughest pinnacles (like, say, back-to-back Game 7s, in which he recorded 65 saves on 68 shots).

Dobes’ rookie status has hardly been an issue. The way he has shouldered the spotlight against more veteran-laden teams in Tampa Bay and Buffalo is impressive. And while his personal mantra (as indicated by the writing on his water bottle) is to “stay humble,” he deserves to be celebrated for a spring showing to remember.

What we’ve learned about the Canadiens so far

Montreal’s postseason identity is rooted in adaptability, resiliency and a seemingly unbreakable sense of self. The Canadiens do an excellent job reacting to adversity in-game (their response goals against Buffalo were particularly telling of that skill), and the club has yet to record back-to-back losses in these playoffs, because it can assess what went wrong and fix it fast.

The Habs wouldn’t be where they are without role players, either. Alex Newhook has introduced himself to the league at large, with seven goals and nine points in 14 games (including consecutive Game 7 game winners); Juraj Slafkovsky (four goals and nine points) looks like a star on the rise; and Jake Evans, Alexandre Texier and Zack Bolduc have each carved out their own niches. That’s not to say the Canadiens’ elite stars didn’t start to show up in a big way by the second round — Nick Suzuki has 13 points, and Cole Caufield has collected nine — but Montreal’s success isn’t tied to what those elite top-line skaters can do.

The Canadiens benefit from a strong power play (25%), and defensively they’ve done well limiting opponents’ opportunities (with just 28 shots per game allowed). It’s the bounce-back in Montreal that’s an intangible superpower, though. Consider how its penalty kill faltered in that 8-3 drubbing by Buffalo in Game 6 (giving up four power-play goals). The Canadiens didn’t let it rattle them. They studied the tape and then stifled the Sabres’ single-man-advantage chance in Game 7 (while capitalizing on their own). That single goal was essentially the difference between advancing or not in an eventual 3-2 OT victory.

X factor for the conference finals

In an NHL era that seemingly prioritizes coaching turnover versus longevity, it’s interesting that both Eastern Conference finals squads are guided by a bench boss with actual long-term tenure. Martin St. Louis is in his fourth full season with Montreal but making just his second postseason appearance. Rod Brind’Amour is eight years deep with the Hurricanes, without a Cup Final berth to show for it.

Carolina has been outcoached at this stage before — twice by former Canes coach Paul Maurice with the Florida Panthers — but now it’s Brind’Amour who knows the ropes much better than St. Louis. Will that be an issue Montreal can’t overcome?

There is nuance on the coaching side just like for players; St. Louis has had the right beat on the Canadiens until now, but Carolina is by far his team’s most formidable foe in this journey. The two teams have similar strengths and weaknesses, but things such as special teams, for instance, tend to balance themselves out the deeper a playoff run goes (here the Hurricanes have a marked short-handed edge to the Canadiens’ upper hand on the power play). Brind’Amour has had more time to study what Montreal brings to the table. It’ll be on St. Louis to get himself up to speed in a hurry so he’s not out of his element on the other side.

How will the Canadiens’ youth (and inexperience) impact this series?

Montreal is the youngest team — with an average age of 25.8 — advancing to a conference final/Stanley Cup semifinal series in 33 years. What sort of effect will that have on what’s next in Carolina?

The majority of the Canadiens’ roster had its first postseason experience via a swift first-round series against the Washington Capitals last year. Now, the Canadiens have more than doubled that experience as verifiable underdogs, punching above their weight class.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are making their third Eastern Conference finals appearance under Brind’Amour, with the same core that has reached this juncture twice in the past four seasons. Does that automatically give the veteran-heavy Canes a clear advantage over the exceedingly green Canadiens? It’s fair to wonder.

Carolina can match Montreal’s depth, goaltending and star-level talent. But there is no substitute for learning on the job, and the Hurricanes have taken their lumps while failing to get over the proverbial hump to a Stanley Cup Final. The Canadiens have an indefinable swagger and shouldn’t feel intimidated despite their youth. Montreal’s true proving ground, though, will come on the ice against a Carolina crew that likely believes this is its best chance to reach that elusive championship promised land. — Shilton