Pakistan-IMF Talks Kick Off in Karachi; State Bank Shares Key Economic Data

Karachi / Islamabad, February 25, 2026
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission arrived in Pakistan on Wednesday, launching a crucial round of review negotiations that will determine the fate of the country’s next loan tranche. The visiting team held its first round of technical-level discussions with senior officials of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in Karachi.
In the opening sessions, SBP experts briefed the IMF delegation on Pakistan’s macroeconomic performance covering the period from July 2025 through January 2026. The initial talks focused on technical data sharing, with detailed exchanges on foreign exchange reserves, monetary policy, inflation trends, and banking sector regulations.
Two Reviews on the Table
The IMF mission will remain in Pakistan from February 25 to March 11. During this period, the delegation will conduct the third review under Pakistan’s flagship $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme. Simultaneously, negotiations will be held for the second review under the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) — a climate-focused programme. A successful outcome could unlock approximately $200 million for Pakistan under the RSF alone.
Growth Forecast and Reserve Targets
State Bank officials expressed cautious optimism over the economic outlook, projecting GDP growth to remain in the range of 3.7 to 4.7 percent for the current fiscal year. On the reserves front, the IMF has set a target for SBP’s net foreign exchange reserves to reach $17.8 billion by June 30, 2026. Looking further ahead, projections suggest total reserves could climb to $23.3 billion in the next fiscal year.
Fiscal Discipline Holds
Pakistan’s fiscal performance during the first half of the ongoing fiscal year (July–December 2025) showed encouraging signs. The country recorded a primary surplus of Rs4,105 billion — a key IMF benchmark — while the current account deficit is estimated at negative 0.6 percent of GDP for the full year.
Stakes Are High
Finance Ministry officials underscored the significance of the ongoing talks, noting that their outcome would be pivotal in unlocking the next IMF disbursement and shaping Pakistan’s broader economic policy direction in the months ahead. Pakistan has been under an IMF programme since 2023 and is navigating a delicate path between fiscal consolidation and reviving economic growth.