Trumps Gaza peace plan struggles to progress as Israel and Hamas face tough choices

A steady stream of water trickles through openings in the tent Ghadir al-Adham shares with her husband and six children in Gaza City. Her family is still displaced after the war and waiting for reconstruction to begin.

“Here we are, living a life of humiliation,” she told the BBC. “We want caravans. We want our homes rebuilt. We long for concrete to keep us warm. Every day I sit and cry for my children.”

Two months into an American-imposed ceasefire, Gaza is stuck in the first phase of Donald Trump’s peace plan – its territory divided between the warring parties, its people still displaced and surrounded by rubble.

Heavy rain has deluged camps and led several buildings to collapse, as a powerful winter storm sweeps through the Strip. More than 800,000 Gazans are at risk from flooding, the UN says.

Plans for new homes – and new government – lie frozen in the next stage of US President Donald Trump’s peace deal, as the search continues for Israel’s last missing hostage, Ran Gvili.

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has insisted Hamas must return all Israel’s hostages – living and dead – before the two sides move on to the next, more difficult, stage of the peace deal.

But several searches of Gaza’s rubble have so far shown no sign of him. Mr Gvili was captured during the 7 October Hamas attacks – a police officer, recovering from a broken shoulder, who went to defend nearby kibbutz Alumim.

His parents, Talik and Itzik, were told last year he had not survived.

The road to their home in Meitar, in southern Israel, is lined with banners paying tribute to him, the yellow flags of remembrance for Israel’s hostages fluttering alongside.

“They stole our kid, they stole him,” his mother Talik told me.

“They know where he is,” Itzik said. “They just try to hide or keep him. They’re play[ing] with us.”

They believe Hamas wants to keep their son as an insurance policy against future negotiations, after returning all the other hostages, both living and dead.

In response, a Hamas official told the BBC their allegations were untrue, and that Israel was trying to avoid implementing the agreement.

But with no sign of Ran’s body, and pressure from Washington growing, his parents say they are counting on Israel’s leaders not to move forward before their son is found.

“Everyone in Israel[‘s] government says to us, ‘No, we don’t move to the second level until Ran comes back.’ This is their promise,” Talik said.

Many in Israel believe it would be politically difficult for Netanyahu to carry out the next steps in the deal, including withdrawing Israeli forces further back towards Gaza’s perimeter, if even one hostage is still missing in Gaza.

Both Israel and Hamas face difficult concessions in the next stage of the deal. For Hamas, it means handing over weapons and power. For Israel, handing over security to an international stabilisation force.

And this is also why leaders on both sides may be hesitating, says retired General Israel Ziv, a former head of Israel’s military Operations Directorate.

“Israel and Hamas are sharing the same interests not to move so fast into the second stage,” he told me. “Hamas doesn’t want to lose control, and the Israeli side for political reasons also prefer to stay in Gaza, as nobody wants to explain to their base that they have to withdraw.”

He says Trump is the only one who can force the two sides forward, and that time is running out.

“By waiting I think we might miss the opportunity because Hamas is reorganising and [its] strength is coming back,” he explained. “We have to take a deep breath and go forward with that plan, because staying in the situation as it is, it’s the worst-case scenario.”

Disarming Hamas – in a way both sides will accept – is seen as the first major hurdle. Without that, no foreign countries are likely to commit troops to secure the Strip, and no reconstruction is likely to begin in Hamas-controlled areas.

Earlier this week, Netanyahu suggested he was sceptical that foreign nations could complete the task in place of Israel.

“Our friends in America want to try to establish an international force that will do the job,” he said. “We know that there are certain tasks that this force can do. I don’t want to go into detail, they can’t do everything, and maybe they can’t do the main thing, but we’ll see.”

Gaza is currently divided in two by the “yellow line” marking the limits of Israeli forces under the first stage of the ceasefire deal.

Israel’s military chief of staff recently referred to it as a “new border line”, sparking accusations that Israel was signalling an intention to remain there long term.

Key issues, including how to disarm Hamas, are due to be discussed at a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump in Florida later this month.

The US president – who has already brokered a ceasefire in Gaza and pushed his peace plan through the UN Security Council – has been outspoken about his desire to move the process forward.

He told journalists this week that he would announce the membership of a newly created Board of Peace for Gaza early next year. “It will be one of the most legendary boards ever… Everybody wants to be on it,” he said.

There are also widespread reports that, under pressure from Washington, Israel is beginning work to clear rubble, in preparation for a new temporary housing project in the Israeli-held area of Rafah, in the south of the Strip.

The new housing could reportedly provide shelter for tens of thousands of Gazans, on condition that they are willing to cross into Israeli-held areas, and submit to checks for any links to Hamas.

Some see it as part of a plan to draw Gazans across into Israeli-held areas, in order to isolate Hamas. A small number of people have already crossed into these areas, to camps set up by armed groups supported by Israel there.

But many Gazans – even those who want to replace Hamas – say they refuse to live under Israeli control.

It’s a glimpse of an alternative future for Gaza, if this second stage of Trump’s plan fails; a future where Gaza, already divided, becomes more divided still.