Guide to NFL offseason signings: Can Geno Smith rebound from 2025 in New York?

The fantasy football offseason is heating up with NFL free agency upon us and the potential for big-time trades at any time. This column is designed to be a one-stop shop for quick-hitting analysis of the most impactful player movement.

ESPN Fantasy writers Matt Bowen, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza and Eric Moody offer their insights into what each move means for a player’s fantasy value in 2026, and Mike Clay supplies his projections for each player. (All projections are for 17 games unless otherwise noted)

Jump to: QB | RB | WR | TE

Running back

March 10: Isiah Pacheco joining Lions

Fantasy impact: Negative

Cockcroft: Pacheco appears to be the Lions’ choice to replace David Montgomery as the team’s complementary back to Jahmyr Gibbs, though that hardly means he’ll slide directly into the role that made Montgomery the RB17, RB18 and RB27 the past three seasons, respectively. Pacheco’s metrics tumbled the past two seasons, and his 8.5% explosive play rate last year was noticeably beneath the league’s average (10.0%). He’ll probably be more of a change-of-pace back behind Gibbs, the top-scoring running back in 2025 who is in the prime of his career. Consider Pacheco a fantasy insurance policy.

March 9: Chiefs adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to backfield

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off a disappointing 6-11 season and needing running back help, plan to sign Super Bowl LX MVP Walker during free agency. That might solve the problem, as Walker is coming off the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his four-year career. He was a productive player with the Seattle Seahawks, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and scoring 31 touchdowns, but he never approached 250 rushing attempts (or 300 touches) in a season.

That might change with the Chiefs, whose most recent 1,000-yard rusher was Kareem Hunt during the 2017 campaign. Hunt led the 2025 Chiefs with 611 rushing yards. Walker, who finished 22nd among running backs in PPR scoring this past season, has long been viewed as a potential top-10 fantasy option at the position, but the Seahawks opted to share his touches with Zach Charbonnet, blunting each player’s intriguing statistical upside. The Chiefs need to rebuild (and get healthy) a once-standout offensive line and get star QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) back for September, but the signs are here for Walker to handle the largest workload of his career. This is, of course, good news for fantasy, assuming Walker, who missed games in each of his first three seasons with various ailments, can stay healthy.

Clay’s projection: 264 carries, 1,180 yards, 9 TD rushing; 48 receptions, 367 yards, 2 TD receiving

March 9: Rico Dowdle agrees to sign with Steelers

Fantasy impact: Positive

Bowen: Dowdle, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Steelers on Monday evening, brings a decisive north/south running style to Mike McCarthy’s club. Straight-line juice here. In 2025, Dowdle had three breakout games with the Panthers — scoring 26 or more fantasy points — and he finished the season with 39 receptions. Dowdle joins Jaylen Warren in an anticipated split-backfield approach, which keeps both players near the RB2/Flex line. However, if Dowdle can emerge as the early down/goal-line runner, he would carry more value on a week-to-week basis.

Clay’s projections: 197 carries, 864 yards, 5 TD rushing; 30 receptions, 221 yards, TD receiving

March 9: Travis Etienne Jr. signs with Saints

Fantasy impact: Potentially positive

Karabell: Etienne, 27, finished the 2025 season as fantasy’s No. 10 PPR RB, as much of his volume from his outstanding 2023 returned. Like many Jaguars, Etienne was not effective in 2024, scoring only two touchdowns among 189 touches. He scored 13 touchdowns on his 296 touches last season, though it might be asking a lot for him to see similar volume in New Orleans with franchise stalwart Alvin Kamara remaining on the team.

Kamara (knee) missed the final six games of 2025, and he wasn’t thriving statistically to start with as the team introduced rookie QB Tyler Shough. However, we cannot ignore that Kamara, 30, is one of the top pass-catching running backs of the era, and he caught 68 passes two seasons ago. Etienne has been an effective receiver, scoring six of his touchdowns through the air last season, but this could easily be a frustrating timeshare. Kamara’s fantasy value takes a bigger hit here, as we should not expect nearly as many rushing attempts, but it is also likely that Etienne lacks the volume to perform as a fantasy top-10 running back after doing so two of the past three seasons.

Clay’s projection: 240 carries, 1,070 yards 5 TD rushing; 37 receptions, 328 yards, 2 TD

March 9: Tyler Allgeier signs with Cardinals

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: Allgeier, 25, rushed for more than 1,000 yards during his rookie season with the Falcons … and then the franchise drafted Bijan Robinson. Let’s just say there is no Bijan Robinson in Arizona. Allgeier, a bruiser at 225 pounds who can run between the tackles, remained a productive player with his lesser volume over the past three seasons, including 2025 when he rushed for eight touchdowns, and now the volume should rise. The Cardinals brought back veteran James Conner (foot) and Trey Benson (knee) is still here, but Allgeier is younger, more durable and he certainly could become an RB2 option for fantasy. All he really needs is more volume, and depending on Conner’s health, he might get it.

Clay’s projection: 127 carries, 510 yards, 4 TD rushing; 18 receptions, 133 yards

March 9: Kenneth Gainwell signs with Buccaneers

Fantasy impact: Negative

Karabell: Gainwell, 26, was a surprise fantasy contributor during the 2025 season, as he led all Steelers flex-eligible players with 221.3 PPR points, finishing No. 16 among RBs in scoring. That was certainly not expected, as Gainwell, after years of reserve work with the Eagles, surpassed 1,000 scrimmage yards and scored eight touchdowns. The good news, for him, is he earns his biggest contract. But Tampa Bay already has a star RB in Bucky Irving, so it might be difficult to expect another 187 touches from Gainwell.

After all, Gainwell caught 73 passes in his lone Steelers season! That seems unlikely to continue with the Buccaneers, as the team might opt for a typical timeshare, with Irving handling a high majority of rushing attempts. Regardless, this signing doesn’t appear to aid Gainwell’s fantasy value, and Irving, nearly a RB1 option during his rookie season, should see his volume compromised as well. Although we could see each of these Buccaneers RBs earn RB2 status in 2026, it might be frustrating for fantasy managers looking for upside.

Clay’s projection: 122 carries, 549 yards, 6 TD rushing; 55 receptions, 366 yards, 2 TD

March 2: Lions trade David Montgomery to Texans

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: Montgomery, 28, thrived in his first two seasons in Detroit in a timeshare with star Jahmyr Gibbs, scoring 25 rushing touchdowns, but his role and volume decreased in Year 3, especially over the final eight weeks. The Lions decided to move on, clearing Gibbs for more volume and production, and certainly one now can make the case for him as the first running back — and perhaps player at any position — off the PPR draft board for 2026. After all, Gibbs was already a top-three PPR RB the past two seasons. More touches would be exciting for all.

Montgomery should return to 200-plus touches in Houston — perhaps pushing promising Woody Marks aside a bit — but there might be a receiving-minded running back to be named later helping him out, too. Sans veteran Joe Mixon (foot) for the entire season, no Texans running back reached even the low bar of 25 receptions, with the entire crew combining to catch only 54 passes. Montgomery caught 54 passes for the 2020 Chicago Bears, but he averaged only 25 receptions per his three Lions campaigns.

The Texans might not be done adding to their backfield, searching for a third-down option. Marks delivered six double-digit PPR efforts (though he did not rush for 75 yards in any game) during his rookie season despite little pass-catching relevance, so adding Montgomery to the crew is bad news for him. Then again, Marks had his chance; he scored two rushing touchdowns all season. Montgomery has scored multiple rushing touchdowns nine times.

This trade aids Montgomery’s stock, though. Solidly built at 5-foot-11 and 230 pounds, expect the Texans to utilize the seven-year veteran on early downs and near the goal line. Do not expect double-digit touchdowns, because the Texans are certainly not the Lions’ equal in terms of offensive talent, scheme, creativity or coaching. However, before this move, we could not make a case for Montgomery, the No. 27 PPR RB scorer last season, as even a safe RB3 for the 2026 draft. Now we can dream about RB2 production.

Clay’s projection: 199 carries, 863 yards, six touchdowns rushing, 31 receptions, 241 yards and one touchdown receiving

---

Wide receiver

March 10: Romeo Doubs signs with Patriots

Fantasy impact: Positive

Cockcroft: Fantasy managers will rejoice at the idea of Doubs, who never saw greater than an 18.4% target share in his first four NFL seasons, getting out of Green Bay — but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee him No. 1 receiver status in his new digs. It’s a fair guess that he’ll settle as that, and QB Drake Maye‘s sophomore-year progression heightens the amount of upside for Doubs, whose 8.4 yards per target average last season ranked 16th. Assuming the offseason dust settles in his favor, Doubs could sneak into the top-20/WR2 class for fantasy, though he’s wiser selected among the WR3 group.

March 9: Veteran Mike Evans signs with 49ers

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: Evans, 32, comes off the worst season of his Hall of Fame career, the first in 12 years that he failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards. Evans missed nine games with hamstring/collarbone injuries. Then again, in 2024, he caught more than 70 passes for the ninth time, despite missing three games, and he scored 11 touchdowns. The 49ers get a motivated player who can still produce when healthy, and there is excellent opportunity for volume and touchdowns with QB Brock Purdy and a mostly underwhelming crew of wide receivers. Evans should return to 1,000 receiving yards and perhaps double-digit touchdowns, making him a likely WR2 option who, because of his age, will not be evaluated as such in most drafts.

Clay’s projection: 65 receptions, 1,089 yards, 7 TD

March 9: Wan’Dale Robinson joining Titans on four-year deal

Fantasy impact: Positive

Bowen: It’s a four-year deal for Robinson to reunite with former Giants head coach Brian Daboll, who now takes over as the offensive play caller in Tennessee. A dynamic mover in the slot, Robinson (13.6 PPG) caught 92 passes last season with the Giants, while also displaying more vertical production. The second-year development of Titans quarterback Cam Ward is critical to Robinson’s numbers in ’26, and we need to see if the team adds more receivers or moves on from veteran Calvin Ridley. Robinson, for now, should be viewed as a reliable target for Ward, putting him in the lower-tier WR3 mix.

Clay’s projections: 82 receptions, 890 yards, 2 TD

March 9: Rashid Shaheed remains with the Seahawks

Fantasy impact: Neutral

Loza: Re-signed by Seattle to a contract worth upwards of $51 million, Shaheed is committed to Seattle for the next three years. After being traded by the Saints early last November, Shaheed’s consistent usage as a receiver diminished but his speed and versatility became more regularly showcased. In addition to working as the team’s No. 3 WR, Shaheed excelled on special teams and worked as a rusher, hauling in three grabs of 20 or more yards and ripping off three runs of 10 or more yards from Weeks 10 through 18. The heft of his deal suggests potential growth in the offense, though he’s unlikely to provide regular production from a fantasy perspective.

Clay’s projection: 41 receptions, 625 yards, 4 TD

March 9: Alec Pierce re-signs with Colts

Fantasy impact: Positive

Bowen: Pierce returns to Indianapolis on a four-year deal, one that pays him top-tier money ($86 million guaranteed). With the team also trading away wide receiver Michael Pittman to the Steelers on Monday, Pierce is now in line to see a bump in volume. In 2025, Pierce’s 21.3 YPC led the league, and he had 17 receptions of 20 or more yards. There’s a true vertical stretch element to his game, plus we should see Pierce deployed on three-step throws and in-breakers at a much higher rate this season. The Colts still need to address the quarterback position, either bringing back Daniel Jones or signing another veteran passer, but the arrow is pointing up on Pierce, who joins tight end Tyler Warren and slot receiver Josh Downs as the top targets in Indy. Pierce should be viewed as a WR2/Flex.

Clay’s projections: 59 receptions, 875 yards, 6 TD

March 9: Colts trade Michael Pittman Jr. to Steelers

Fantasy impact: Neutral

Karabell: Pittman, 28, finished last season as fantasy’s No. 18 PPR WR, though much of his production occurred in the first half of the season when he caught six touchdown passes. Pittman scored only once in the final nine games, his production stymied even before starting QB Daniel Jones (Achilles) was injured and replaced by Philip Rivers. Fantasy managers were not pleased.

Pittman’s best season came in 2023 (109 receptions, 1,152 receiving yards), with career backup Gardner Minshew as the primary QB. Pittman needs bigger volume, not necessarily a prime Tom Brady at QB, and he might get more looks with Pittsburgh, even if Aaron Rodgers, 42, announces his return. The possession-minded Pittman should be able to coexist with DK Metcalf, who plays a different role as a downfield threat in an offense. Pittman has enjoyed no fewer than 111 targets in the past five seasons, and he should reach that mark again in Pittsburgh.

Clay’s projection: 93 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD

March 5: Bears trade veteran wideout Moore to Bills

Fantasy impact: Positive

Bowen: With ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting that the Chicago Bears are trading wide receiver DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills — which will become official at the start of the league year — let’s discuss the fantasy implications for both clubs.

In Buffalo, Moore fills a need as a volume target for quarterback Josh Allen in new head coach Joe Brady’s offensive system. Moore, who caught 50 of 83 targets for 682 yards and six scores in 2025, will see a bump in usage with the Bills, using his physical traits to play through contact while creating separation to the ball.

Moore will be a three-level route runner under Brady, too. He’ll be pressing defenses vertically and running the in-breakers, in addition to the screens and unders that cater to his explosive run-after-catch ability. When paired with Allen, Moore should be viewed as a WR2 who can produce breakout weeks.

Back in Chicago, we know about the emergence of wide receiver Luther Burden III, who showed flashes of his high-level playmaking ability late in his rookie season. Burden, who had a breakout game in Week 17 versus the 49ers (27.8 points), is an electric mover and an easy fit in Ben Johnson’s system. That’s the multilevel speed and the ball carrier vision in space.

Burden’s role will elevate in 2026, as he joins wide receiver Rome Odunze and tight end Colston Loveland as the top targets for quarterback Caleb Williams. We could see any of these three players taking the lead week-to-week depending on the game plan and/or opponent. But as we sit here now in March, Loveland will be in my TE1 ranks, and I’ll pencil in Odunze as a midtier WR2 and Burden as an upside WR3 who has the ability to post some WR1 weeks.

Clay’s projection: 63 catches, 870 yards, seven touchdowns receiving

---

Quarterback

March 11: Daniel Jones re-signs with Colts

Fantasy impact: Positive

Cockcroft: Jones returns to the very place where he scored more fantasy points through his team’s first 12 games than in any of his prior six NFL seasons — and at reasonable cost relative to others at his position. He was fantasy’s QB7 through those 12 fully healthy games, and the Colts’ decision to re-sign Alec Pierce, who emerged as a premier receiver over the season’s final 10 weeks (fantasy’s WR13 in that time), assures Jones a well-rounded offense from which to work. Jones, who suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in Week 14, might not quite be ready by Week 1 and has more injury risk than a typical quarterback. Still, he’s a good backup option in standard leagues and could be a value in superflex/2QB leagues if his recovery progresses swiftly.

Clays projection: 335-for-505 passing, 3,563 yards, 22 TD, 11 INT; 306 yards rushing, 6 TD

March 10: Raiders trade Geno Smith to Jets

Fantasy impact: Positive

Cockcroft: Smith, the Jets’ 2013 second-rounder and their starter in 2013-14, returns to the team where he flopped initially after what was a three-year resurgence with the Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately, those good Seattle years were followed by a miserable 2025 with the Las Vegas Raiders, where he either led or tied for the league’s lead in both sacks (55) and interceptions (17). Smith could rebound behind a far better Jets offensive line than the 2025 Raiders line, and he’ll have productive players to work with in running back Breece Hall and No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson. Assuming Smith beats out Justin Fields for the starting job (which is a fair guess), there could be some fantasy matchup opportunities, and Smith would warrant a superflex/2QB bench spot.

March 9: Malik Willis signs with Dolphins

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: Willis, 26, entering his fifth NFL season, finally gets a legitimate opportunity to be a starting QB in Miami. The Tennessee Titans‘ third-round pick from 2022 started six games in four seasons. He shined during his brief work last season for the Green Bay Packers, rushing for 60 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and completing 85% of his 35 passes for the season, so there is obvious statistical upside for this athletic, dual-threat option. Willis replaces Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s often-underwhelming starter for six seasons.

The Dolphins last won a playoff game during the 2000 season, but adding Willis to an offense led by magnificent RB De’Von Achane and solid WR Jaylen Waddle is a good start to energizing the offense (remember, WR Tyreek Hill is no longer on the team). Willis instantly becomes a fantasy sleeper, not someone we can call a safe top-10 option because, let’s face it, quarterback is deep with proven veterans, and some of them add value with their legs. But Willis might become a reliable option soon.

Clay’s projection: 334-for-522 passing, 3,596 yds, 17 TD, 11 INT; 105 carries, 545 yards, 5 TD rushing

March 9: Tua Tagovailoa signs with Falcons

Fantasy impact: Neutral

Loza: Shortly after officially being released by the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa agreed to a one-year, $1.3 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons. The move suggests Atlanta will release Kirk Cousins and that Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) is unlikely to be ready at the start of the 2026 regular season. Newly hired offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who served as the Browns’ offensive coordinator in 2025, figures to focus on the ground game, relying heavily on the talents of Bijan Robinson. Given the lack of depth behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr., Tua figures to work as a game manager with minimal fantasy upside.

Clay’s projection: 202-for-298 passing, 2,311 yards, 11 TD, 8 INT

---

Tight end

March 9: Isaiah Likely signs with Giants

Fantasy impact: Positive

Karabell: Likely, 25, failed to reach 50 receptions or 500 receiving yards in any of his four seasons playing in Baltimore with three-time Pro Bowler Mark Andrews, but opportunity is calling with the New York Giants. Sure, the Giants boast third-year option Theo Johnson, who broke out statistically last season, but they get more upside with Likely, a more athletic, better downfield target for QB Jaxson Dart. Likely, who individually profiles more as a large WR with TE eligibility, might not garner TE1 consideration initially, but it is certainly possible he doubles his 2025 production (27 receptions, 307 receiving yards, one TD) in his first season in New York and becomes quite relevant in fantasy.

Clay’s projection: 62 receptions, 647 yards, 4 TD

March 9: Travis Kelce stays in Kansas City for one more season

Fantasy impact: Neutral

Loza: Despite rumors about a potential retirement, Kelce is set to stay in Kansas City, inking a one-year contract worth an estimated $12 million. The 36-year-old averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (TE8) in 2025, drawing his fewest number of looks (108, TE4) and collecting his fewest number of catches (TE6) since 2015. With Patrick Mahomes‘ (ACL) health in question and given the infusion of young talent at the position, Kelce’s days as a top-five producer appear to be in the rearview. Still, the vet remains a key element in the team’s offense, likely to command a hearty target share. He’s shaping up to be a less-than-inspiring low-end TE1 for fantasy purposes.

Clay’s projection: 73 receptions, 753 yards, 5 TD