IMF’s Strict Programme Forces Pakistan to Maintain Fiscal Discipline in Budget 2026
May 29, 2026ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s federal budget is expected to be presented on June 5, 2026, with preparations entering their final stages. Economic analysts say that the government has little room to deviate from fiscal discipline this time, given the stringent conditions attached to the ongoing IMF programme.According to Topline Securities, the market impact of…
May 29, 2026
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s federal budget is expected to be presented on June 5, 2026, with preparations entering their final stages. Economic analysts say that the government has little room to deviate from fiscal discipline this time, given the stringent conditions attached to the ongoing IMF programme.
According to Topline Securities, the market impact of the budget is likely to be mixed. The IMF has set an ambitious tax collection target of Rs 15,300 billion for the government — a 14 percent increase over last year. To meet this target, the government is reportedly considering raising taxes on agriculture and expanding the GST net to cover a broader range of services.
Consistent with the pattern of the past four years, the budget’s primary focus will be maintaining a primary surplus — keeping expenditures below revenues before debt servicing — and containing the fiscal deficit. Analysts note that rising interest rates and volatile global oil prices add further complexity to the fiscal balancing act.
If international oil prices remain stable, GDP growth could range between 3 and 3.5 percent, economists project. The central challenge for the government will be striking a balance between meeting IMF benchmarks and providing meaningful relief to a population under sustained economic pressure.
