Opinion | As denuclearisation stalls, China will shape stability on Korean peninsula
At the recent South Korea-China summit, both sides agreed to improve dialogue, rebuild trust and promote regional peace and stability, marking a first step towards a normalisation of relations. While the Beijing meeting produced no concrete agreement for peace on the Korean peninsula, it reaffirmed the peninsula’s stability and peace as a common interest –…
At the recent South Korea-China summit, both sides agreed to improve dialogue, rebuild trust and promote regional peace and stability, marking a first step towards a normalisation of relations. While the Beijing meeting produced no concrete agreement for peace on the Korean peninsula, it reaffirmed the peninsula’s stability and peace as a common interest – paving the way for cooperation.
The prolonged stalemate over North Korea’s nuclear programme is no longer just a diplomatic impasse. The Korean peninsula stands at a critical juncture that will determine the future of northeast Asia’s security order. Renewed debate in Japan over nuclear options, alongside strengthened US-Japan extended deterrence, has made it increasingly difficult to treat the issue as one confined to Pyongyang.
Regional actors are recalculating their strategic assumptions – with implications that extend well beyond the peninsula.
As sanctions and pressure fail to produce progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation, crisis management has emerged as a more immediate and realistic challenge. North Korea has publicised advances in its nuclear-powered submarine programme, staged provocative military activities near the demilitarised zone and, around the time of the summit, launched ballistic missiles, reinforcing a sense of strategic uncertainty.
Seoul’s recent declaration on pursuing a “nuclear-free Korean peninsula” signals a critical turning point. Shifts are also visible in the foreign and security priorities of Washington and Beijing.
North Korea’s nuclear issue received only minimal attention in the 2025 US National Security Strategy, while references to denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula have disappeared from China’s latest arms control white paper. As the Taiwan Strait rises to the top of the strategic agenda, the North Korean nuclear issue appears to have moved down the list.
