CFP Bubble Watch: Who in? Who's out? Who needs help to make the bracket

Just when you thought the 12-team College Football Playoff was the solution … it might be messier than ever.

Five-loss Duke can win the ACC. Three of the four power conferences will have championship games that feature rematches (and Alabama might have to beat Georgia a second time to stay in the field). If both BYU and Texas Tech are in from the Big 12, someone currently in the top 10 is out.

There also are still plenty of questions: Will the committee do anything with Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin’s departure? Does Miami gain ground on Notre Dame? Which are the true bubble teams?

How the committee votes in Tuesday night’s fifth ranking (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be a strong indicator of how the 12-team field will look on Selection Day, but it’s not the final answer.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good ahead of the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s top 12 projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will reflect the committee’s penultimate ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game — and they’re already in a precarious position. How far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.

A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see them drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on their résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough résumé to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.

It will be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin’s departure affects the ranking of Ole Miss. CFP protocol states the committee will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee surmises the team won’t be the same without him.

Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns will earn a promotion Tuesday night, but the win against Texas A&M is unlikely to catapult them into the playoff. Texas probably will be stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if Texas Tech knocks BYU out of the top 12 with a win in the Big 12 championship game, bumping up both Miami and Texas, the Longhorns would still be excluded from the field to make room for a conference champion. If BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably wouldn’t be enough for Texas to get into the field, because even if Texas reaches No. 11 by default, it would still be excluded during the seeding process for a conference champion.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

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Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.

The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon could get a small boost this week if Texas A&M drops behind it after losing to Texas.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

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Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee could move them into the top four on Tuesday night if Texas A&M falls out after its loss to Texas.

Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. It could be as simple as No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 BYU flipping positions on Selection Day. The difference would be that BYU lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia

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ACC

Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.

Still in the mix: Miami. The Hurricanes will still be the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team on Tuesday night, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring the Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t only comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against Alabama and BYU — two teams the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. If both of those teams lose their respective conference championship games, it would open the door for Miami to possibly enter the 12-team field with Notre Dame.

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

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Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No. 9, the Irish are safely in the field — if they can stay there through conference championship chaos. The concern would be if Alabama won the SEC and jumped Notre Dame, pushing the Irish to No. 10 — and if BYU and Texas Tech both made the playoff. If BYU wins the Big 12, both teams are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded. The Irish will watch and wait and need to hope those two results don’t unfold.

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Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, it will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the only Group of 5 team ranked by the committee, but if North Texas wins, it would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the conference this season.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field.

Bracket

Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State