Solak spins Week 13 forward: Panic levels for the Steelers, Eagles, Colts, Ravens and Lions

Week 13 is in the books. It was a chippy one! There was plenty of — as the broadcasters would say — pushing and shoving in Patriots-Giants, Jaguars-Titans and Steelers-Bills. As the weather gets colder and playoff hopes dwindle, so the skirmishes begin. Just know that if any of you hit my editors late, I’ll be coming over with bad intentions.

Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll seek measured reactions to everyone’s overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed.

There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

Jump to a section:
Big Thing: Panic meter for five teams
Second Take: It’s OK for the Bills to run
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 13 stats

The Big Thing: Panic meter

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we’re looking at five playoff contenders to gauge how panicked they should be about recent skids.

Panic meter: DEFCON 1,000,000

(Yes, I understand that the bigger DEFCON numbers are actually less severe. “DEFCON 1” just doesn’t sound as good.)

The Steelers’ 2025 offseason did not work. They pursued Aaron Rodgers in the belief that the 41-year-old quarterback had another year of championship-caliber play in him, and he clearly doesn’t. They swapped safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey in the belief that Ramsey could still play cornerback and give them unprecedented versatility in the defensive backfield, and he couldn’t and hasn’t. They extended T.J. Watt in the belief that the 30-year-old edge rusher’s game would age well, and it hasn’t. They flipped George Pickens for DK Metcalf in the belief that Pickens’ behavioral headaches weren’t worth his production at receiver, which they could backfill with Metcalf, and they were wrong.

It is obnoxious to say that we all saw this coming, but generally speaking, we did. Watt’s explosiveness tailed off through the 2024 season before his injury and has dropped again this year. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second matters for a speed rusher such as Watt, who has delivered a pressure rate below 10% in each of the past two seasons.

With a deep and young group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers were well-positioned to get out a year early rather than a year late. But moving on from Watt didn’t fit their timeline, so he was extended at a $41 million annually — greater than the average annual value of Myles Garrett‘s contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven.

Watt is no longer a blue-chipper, and with Ramsey relegated to safety to hide his diminishing athleticism, there are no top-tier players left on Pittsburgh’s defense. Because of all the veteran contracts, the Steelers’ defense is second in cap spending but 20th in success rate. The lack of team speed kills them in explosive play rate, too; they are 26th in surrendering both explosive passes and explosive runs.

There are schematic frustrations as well, as the Steelers’ run defense is a travesty of errors along the defensive line and at linebacker. Buffalo ran for 249 yards on Pittsburgh on Sunday in the absence of first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (knee); it was the most rushing yardage surrendered by the Steelers at home since 1975. They can’t play too much zone coverage, either — it’s hard to hide those linebackers.

The offensive issues are similar but siloed in one player: Rodgers. No two ways around it, Rodgers is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He cannot drive the football but hates to throw interceptable balls, so he flutters passes at the edge of his receivers’ range. He also hates getting hit, so he gets rid of the ball faster than almost any other passer, which negates his elite post-snap processing. Once the premier magician in extending plays and throwing on the move, Rodgers is now one of the worst QBs on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds. Only Cam Ward, Joe Flacco and Jaxson Dart have worse success rates on such plays.

Game planning for Rodgers and the Steelers is extremely easy. Top corners travel with Metcalf (Christian Benford did this week, and DJ Turner II did two weeks before) and press him at the line, disrupting the timing of Rodgers’ primary quick-game target. Rodgers will either throw up a prayer to an uninspiring downfield option (Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson) or check down to running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. If he’s lucky, it’ll be tight end Darnell Washington.

A few times per game, one of those after-the-catch athletes will get a big gain. Warren is quick and hard to tackle; Washington is enormous and hard to tackle. Amazingly, 66.4% of Rodgers’ passing yards have come after the catch, which is second only to 2011 A.J. Feeley in the past 15 years. That’s 713 quarterbacking seasons worth of sample!

This is completely untenable. Rodgers’ 5.7 air yards per attempt is 703rd out of those 713 seasons; his minus-3.5 air yards to the sticks is 705th. Rodgers cannot and will not throw the football downfield yet remains in total control of the offense at the line of scrimmage and regularly checks out of runs and into passes. The passing game is completely inadequate. This, like every other aspect of the Steelers’ season, was foreseeable.

The Steelers’ short-term outlook is bleak. Their Week 14 game against the Ravens is winnable, but it’s on the road against a physical and ascending defense. If Pittsburgh loses, it’ll slip below .500 and lose control of the AFC North, which is its only path into the playoffs.

The long-term outlook is bleaker. There is no quarterback of the future on the roster, and the rest of the cap sheet is loaded with bad contracts. Metcalf is due $31 million next year, Watt is due $42 million, and Ramsey is due $17.9 million. The Steelers need to recover from their 2025 spending spree, and they’ll likely have no hardware — not even a division championship — to show for it.

The evidence that Mike Tomlin is the leader to pull them from this spiral is diminishing rapidly. While I remain confident that Tomlin is a good coach (look at how many of the Steelers’ young players or veterans on small contracts are positive contributors), it’s clear that his overarching organizational philosophy needs modernization. If there ever was an offseason to trade Tomlin, rip the roster down to the studs and start to rebuild, it’s this one.

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Panic meter: It’s the beginning of the end

I can explain the Lions’ recent losses pretty easily. The Lions went 0-for-3 on fourth down in their Thanksgiving loss, while the Packers went 2-for-2 (with some officiating assistance to boot). In the loss in Philadelphia, the Lions were 0-for-5 on fourth down. In the loss to J.J. McCarthy (the Lions really lost to J.J. McCarthy) and the Vikings, they were 1-for-3 in the red zone, and the Vikings got 17 points off three short fields.

The Lions have been losing in high-leverage moments lately. But those are the sort of moments in which losses become wins should one little thing break another way. I trust Dan Campbell and a veteran Lions team to endure that valley and emerge through the other side a little luckier.

With that said, the Lions are 7-5, and that is reason for panic. Homefield advantage is an enormous deal for Detroit because of its quarterback. Jared Goff, a California native with small hands, does not play well in cold weather under the stars. Over his career, Goff has a 68.2% completion percentage indoors, but that drops to 57.4% when playing outdoors in temperatures below 50 degrees. His touchdown-to-interception ratio falls from 3.5 to 1.8, and his dropback success rate falls from 49.8% to 40.5%.

Lions fans don’t like when I reference this stat because Goff has been better during his Lions tenure when outdoors and in the cold relative to how he performed with the Rams. This is only slightly true. He has a 42.7% success rate with the Lions in those spots, versus 39.2% with the Rams. He has a 60.3% completion rate with the Lions, versus 54.8% with the Rams. He has been a little better, but the issue was still clear and obvious against the Eagles on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 11. His grip on the ball falters, and his accuracy nosedives.

The Lions have played all but one of their recent playoff games at home, and the lone road game was in balmy Santa Clara, California. With only an 8% chance to win their division, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections, the Lions will likely have to travel through the postseason. Green Bay, Chicago, Philadelphia and even Seattle are open-air stadiums in cold climates. This is a brutal draw for Goff’s particular weaknesses.

It doesn’t stop there. Goff’s other major weakness — his lack of pocket escapability — has been hammered of late. The Lions’ interior offensive line is markedly worse this season than it was in Goff’s previous seasons. Rookie right guard Tate Ratledge has replaced Kevin Zeitler with average play, while Graham Glasgow has failed to fill Frank Ragnow‘s big shoes at center. The Lions tried to get Ragnow back, but he failed his physical. Left guard Christian Mahogany went down for the season with an injury, and Kayode Awosika has struggled in relief. Bad interior protection is an issue for every quarterback but is double damaging for a quarterback who lacks mobility. Goff has to hang in the pocket, and as such, he’s getting hit — a lot.

In fact, Goff has been hit on 20.2% of his dropbacks, easily the highest of his Lions tenure. It’s below only his disastrous 2016 rookie season before Sean McVay arrived in Los Angeles to rescue his career. Those hits accumulate on Goff, who deserves credit for his toughness. But he isn’t Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen. He isn’t built to sustain this level of damage, and his internal clock will accelerate on long and late downs when he sees blitz looks.

The Lions’ offensive line was among the league’s best in Goff’s first few years in Detroit, but those days are behind us. Besides the interior talent drain, left tackle Taylor Decker is showing signs of his age, too. Without elite run blocking, Detroit faces more third-and-longs. Without elite pass protection, Goff struggles more on those downs. The offense loses an edge. It’s not a bad unit, but it isn’t elite anymore.

The defense is also running into issues. Under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, the Lions remain committed to playing man coverage at above-average rates and on high-leverage downs. The Lions have run man coverage on 44.6% of their defensive snaps, easily the most in the league. On late downs, they’re at 68.7% (again, the most). In the red zone, they’re at 69.0% (third most).

Being predictable is never good. The Packers shredded the Lions on late downs and in the red zone with man-beating concepts, and the Lions’ inability to pass off rub routes created easy touchdowns for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. But the issue isn’t just schematic; it’s also personnel. For as much as the Lions like cornerback Amik Robertson‘s disposition and leadership, he struggles with size and speed, as evidenced by the long Christian Watson touchdown this past Thursday. And Detroit invested a 2024 first-round pick in Terrion Arnold in the hopes he would be a shutdown CB1, and he simply hasn’t been. Now he’s on the shelf with season-ending shoulder surgery, and the depth behind Robertson and D.J. Reed will be sorely tested.

Detroit doesn’t have the personnel to run the coverages it wants to run. Safety Kerby Joseph will come back from his knee injury eventually, and the Lions are still fourth best in success rate when playing man coverage. But playoff opponents will have deep rosters of pass catchers (as was the case with the Packers), aggressive quarterbacks and precise playcalling. It’s hard for Detroit to pivot to playing zone, as its base packages put too many linebackers on the field. The Lions need to live in this volatile defensive form, but I’m not sure their corners have three dominant games against the Packers, Seahawks and Rams in them.

It’s not fair to say that the Lions’ window has closed. The same players who created the window — Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, left tackle Penei Sewell, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and Joseph — are still there. But the Lions’ window is officially transitioning from a cheap roster to an expensive one, and the thinning margins are evident. GM Brad Holmes needs to hit on players in these next couple of drafts — pass rusher, interior offensive line, cornerback — in order to keep the ship afloat as currently constructed. Otherwise, a soft roster reset will be required.

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Panic meter: One week away from all-out mayhem

The Colts are on the cliff’s edge.

Let’s rewind the clock a month. It’s Sunday, Nov. 2. The Colts just suffered their second loss 27-20 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It was a ridiculous game. The Colts’ offense moved the ball at will but turned it over five times (and special teams contributed a sixth giveaway). Like most teams that hand over the ball six times, the Colts lost. Nothing to worry about. Nothing to see here.

Two days later at the trade deadline, general manager Chris Ballard dealt two first-round picks and receiver Adonai Mitchell to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Heck yeah. The AFC is gettable. The Colts had found the next Baker Mayfield in Daniel Jones, who looks like a renewed man in Shane Steichen’s offense. After an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason of free agent acquisitions (Charvarius Ward, Cam Bynum), why not make an all-in trade and attack the opportunity this season? Sure, the price is high. Sure, this all but locks them into Jones as their QB for the next three years. But a Lombardi Trophy is in sight.

Since that day, the Colts are 1-2, with only an overtime win against the Falcons in their pocket. The clock has struck midnight on Jones, who has seen his play under pressure totally regress back to his Giants days. A fractured fibula during practice before the Week 12 game against the Chiefs certainly hasn’t helped. But the Colts’ offensive line, which was elite through the first half of the season, has bottomed out. Top edge rushing duos in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston have found success working through Indianapolis’ tackle pair of Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith. Center Tanor Bortolini, an asset in the running game, is also getting exposed in pass protection.

The Colts are also feeling heat from their AFC South rivals. When Ballard made the trade for Gardner, the Colts had a 3½-game lead on the two-time defending AFC South champion Texans, who were 3-5. Houston has since won four straight, including its Week 13 victory over the Colts, to reach 7-5. It is only one game back from Indianapolis and currently owns the tiebreaker. Similarly, the Jaguars were 5-3 at the time of the trade — 1½ games behind the Colts. Jacksonville has gone 3-1, losing only to the Texans, and now shares the same 8-4 record as Indianapolis, with their first head-to-head game approaching.

Just a nightmare roll of the dice right after the Colts went all-in. A QB injury, two divisional rivals peaking and a couple of close losses — and the cherry on top is Gardner being out multiple weeks because of a calf strain. He won’t go on injured reserve (there’s little point this late in the season), but the hope is that he’s back during the regular season. That is to say: not a guarantee.

When teams reach true contending status without elite quarterbacks, their foundation tends to be very fragile. So much has coalesced for these squads to excel with an imperfect quarterback that, if any one joint in the house of cards wiggles, the entire operation falls. We can see this in Philadelphia, which collapsed in 2023, excelled in 2024 and is on the verge of collapse again in 2025. Think about how fast the 2024 Vikings fell apart under Sam Darnold, or even the 2024 Lions with Jared Goff, or the injury-riddled 2025 Buccaneers with September MVP Baker Mayfield. When it’s good, it’s good. When it’s bad, it’s bad.

The good news for the Colts is they built a big cushion. Their 7-2 start has insulated them during this fall to where they’re still in a first-place tie with the Jaguars. Jacksonville is far from a perfect team, and even in its recent surge, it has eked out overtime wins over the Raiders and Cardinals. The Jaguars are gettable.

While the Colts were never going to sustain their early-season historic scoring pace, inevitable regression doesn’t erase the ceiling altogether. The Colts’ offense has been better than any other offense in the AFC for a large stretch of this season. They haven’t had any major injury absences on that side of the ball, either — only Jones is hampered. It’s reasonable to expect the Colts’ offense to bounce back to a respectable level. I still trust it more than I trust the offenses of Denver, Baltimore, Houston and Jacksonville.

But that belief has a one-week shelf life. Struggle against Jacksonville’s defense — a complex group with a red-hot pass rusher in Josh Hines-Allen — and the division might slip entirely out of reach. The offense is only half the battle. The Colts’ defense needs to put forth a winning effort without Gardner and DeForest Buckner, who is still on injured reserve because of a neck injury.

Lose to the Jaguars, and the Gardner trade might eventually go down as one of the worst midseason trades in NFL history. Beat the Jaguars, and the snowball stops rolling down the mountain just before it becomes an avalanche. No big stakes or anything!

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Panic meter: Moderate to severe

Let’s start with the main reason to not panic.

In Week 13, quarterback Lamar Jackson missed a walkthrough practice because of a toe injury. The previous week, he missed two consecutive practices because of an ankle injury. The week before that, he missed a practice because of knee soreness. All of this came after missing three games (over four weeks) because of a hamstring injury.

Jackson is clearly not healthy. In his five games back from injury, he has run for 14, 36, 10, 11 and 27 yards — an average of 19.6 yards per game. His career average before this season was 59.9 yards per game.

Players don’t magically become healthier in Week 14. Football is a brutal sport, and a week of recovery rarely accounts for accumulated wear on the body, especially this late in the season. It is unreasonable to expect Jackson to suddenly become more healthy and dangerous as a runner. Should their season crumble into a 9-8 finish with no postseason berth, the 2025 Ravens would be far from the first playoff-caliber team to miss the dance because of their quarterback’s health.

But it is not impossible that he gets healthier the further he gets from the hamstring injury. Again: not likely, but not impossible. A healthier Jackson mitigates some of the offensive line issues, as the Ravens’ young trench players — left guard Andrew Vorhees, right guard Daniel Faalele and right tackle Roger Rosengarten — have all underwhelmed this season. Vorhees rotated with third-round rookie Emery Jones Jr. at left guard this past week against the Bengals. Jones is finally healthy, but a third-round rookie still on a learning curve is not exactly elite reinforcement.

The offensive line isn’t the only area in which internal promotions and development have failed the Ravens. Baltimore’s pass catchers simply are not good enough for a postseason run. Zay Flowers — the Ravens’ nominal No. 1 — is talented. But he’s not a true field-tipping threat who demands defensive attention. Flowers has 340 yards after the catch on the season but only 26 YAC over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He isn’t creating yardage so much as he’s getting what he’s expected to get.

Flowers would be a No. 2 receiver for most teams, but the bigger issue in Baltimore is depth. Rashod Bateman, whom the Ravens extended on a three-year deal this offseason, has 0.8 yards per route run this season. He has been about as productive as Kalif Raymond, Tyler Lockett, Jamari Thrash and Jahan Dotson. Behind Bateman are DeAndre Hopkins (who has been fine as a role player) and Devontez Walker (who has not been the deep threat the Ravens hoped he would develop into).

Neither Bateman nor Flowers scare opposing defenses or challenge one-on-one coverage, and the same is true for the Ravens’ tight ends. Mark Andrews was once that player, but age has sapped his explosiveness. This season, Andrews is averaging 6.4 yards per target and 9.0 yards per reception; his previous career lows were 7.5 and 11.6, respectively. Running mate Isaiah Likely, from whom the Ravens have been hoping for an emergence, remains an explosive player but does not shoulder high volume as a pass catcher.

As has often been the case when the Ravens made postseason appearances in the past, they aren’t dangerous enough in the dropback passing game. Should they fall behind, as they did against the Bengals on Thursday night, they can’t throw their way back into contention. It was already hard when Jackson could scramble and create — now that he’s limited, the toothlessness of their offense is revealed.

The scariest non-Jackson player last season was Derrick Henry, of course, but Henry has lost a step. By NFL Next Gen Stats tracking, Henry is averaging 11.27 mph this season and has cleared 15 mph on 8.8% of his plays. Last season, he was at 11.52 mph, and he was over 15 mph 11.7% of the time. Watch him, and you see a player who can still devastate defenses with a runway, but he’s getting into that runway a little less often.

The Ravens’ offense has taken a step back across the board. With no development or meaningful additions at pass catcher, another year of attrition on Henry and poor play on the offensive line, the Ravens are hard to take seriously as 2025 contenders even as their defense continues to shine. A suddenly healthy Jackson would color in the lines some but not enough to beat a legit field of AFC defenses. Jackson will bounce back next season as he heals, but work is needed to bolster the offense in 2026 and beyond.

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Panic meter: We’ve been here before (unclear if this is actually good news)

Let’s force a contrived comparison between this season and the Eagles’ 2023 season.

Through 12 weeks in 2023, the Eagles were 10-1. Their only loss (I’ll give you a billion dollars if you know this off the top of your head) was to the Zach Wilson-led Jets. They had just beaten the Bills and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks.

But even at 10-1, we all knew there was some nonsense. Under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, the Eagles had a top-10 offense by most metrics (EPA per play, success rate, points per drive), but the fan base was furious with him as the Eagles’ passing game ran extremely hot and cold. The college-inspired offense was heavy on spread formations, RPOs and QB runs — too simple, and blitzes confounded everyone from Johnson to young quarterback Jalen Hurts.

The defensive numbers were far more damning: 25th in defensive EPA per play, 26th in points per drive allowed and 26th in explosive play rate surrendered. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai was definitely struggling, and the Eagles eventually handed playcalling over to defensive analyst Matt Patricia. The Eagles lost five of their last six games to finish second in the NFC East and got walloped 32-9 by the Bucs in the wild-card round.

We’re through 13 weeks in 2025. The Eagles are 8-4, which is a pretty accurate reflection of the team. The defensive numbers are good this time — ninth in both EPA per play and points per drive allowed — though there are some obvious concerns at No. 2 cornerback and against the run. It’s the offensive numbers that are clearly problematic. The Eagles are 23rd in points per drive and 27th in offensive success rate. The only offenses that are worse are the Jets, Vikings, Raiders, Titans and Browns.

The last time the Eagles were here, they made a December playcalling change. It was on the other side of the ball, and it helped nothing. Apparently, no December playcalling change will come this season, as head coach Nick Sirianni voiced his confidence in first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after the Eagles’ Black Friday loss to the Bears. I’d wager this vote of confidence has less to do with Patullo and more to do with the fruitless 2023 switch. A playcalling change this late in the season is too little, too late.

Because the Eagles were in this hole in 2023 and then won the Super Bowl the very next season, it’s unwise to panic too hard. The Eagles can say with confidence something the Colts and Lions can’t say: They have a championship formula with their current quarterback. To recover it, the Eagles need an infusion of creativity on the offensive coaching staff (and big improvement across the offensive line, which has regressed in health and performance this season), but this 2025 downswing does not condemn the offense or the team to death. We know it can emerge from this.

But in the short term, it is impossible to rank the Eagles among the top tier of NFC contenders. The offense is far too feeble. The philosophy since the beginning of 2024 was to avoid turnovers, but the moment the Eagles get a bad bounce on a fumble — as they have in the past two games against the Cowboys and Bears (three fumbles lost) — they have no dropback passing game to erase the deficit. The playcalling fails to manufacture easy touches for Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown — two of the league’s best playmakers — in a manner that is totally impermissible. Without right tackle Lane Johnson, Hurts does not trust his pockets. He also isn’t running nearly as much this season, which is clearly a conscientious choice between him and/or the coaching staff. There is no juice and no relief coming around the corner.

The Eagles might win a playoff game on the back of a great defensive performance. But it is impossible to rank them next to the Rams, Seahawks and Packers as the class of the NFC. I think they’re below the 49ers and Bears as well. Until new blood joins the offensive coaching staff, the Eagles cannot be taken seriously — and that won’t happen immediately. Panic for 2025 is real. Panic for 2026 and beyond isn’t necessary.

Second Take: It’s OK for the Bills to be a run-first team

ESPN’s “First Take” is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen did not throw the football downfield on Sunday.

Literally. He had zero attempts 20-plus yards downfield. In 136 games across Allen’s career, only six have come without a pass 20-plus yards downfield. Four of those six games have come this season.

As the deep ball vanishes from Allen’s game, his overall air yards per attempt drops in concert. Allen’s 7.3 air yards per attempt is a new career low, and if that number holds, it’ll be the eighth season in a row in which Allen’s average depth of target has dropped from the previous season, encompassing every year of his career. (To be fair, rookie Josh Allen was hucking that thing. A decrease was inevitable.)

Even in that backdrop, this game against the Steelers stands out. Allen averaged 1.6 air yards per attempt, almost half the distance of his previous single-game low (3.1). There have been only five games in the past 15 NFL seasons with an air yards per attempt below 2.0 yards.

It’s obviously not good to have the entire passing game live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nobody is in Orchard Park, New York, celebrating a fully realized offensive game plan that reflected the Bills’ identity and demonstrated their prowess as an AFC contender.

However … this was a very encouraging game for the Bills’ offense! It was a sign of growth from offensive coordinator Joe Brady! It’s the version of the offense that can actually win a Super Bowl!

Let’s start with the obvious: Both starting tackles, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, were out. Just last week against the Texans, we saw what would happen if Allen tried to hang in the pocket for any period of time, and that was with both starting tackles playing (albeit Brown was clearly hurt). Against the Steelers, whose defensive strength is the edge rush, it was important to get rid of the ball quickly. Just as it was the shallowest depth of target of Allen’s career, it was his fifth quickest in time to throw at 2.46 seconds.

How Buffalo got rid of the ball quickly was interesting. Unlike the game against Houston, when Allen spent much of his time in the gun, Brady put Allen under center on 37% of his dropbacks — a new high this season. The Bills faked a give on 37% of Allen’s dropbacks, as well (second highest). In the first quarter, Allen had no under-center dropbacks. But by the second quarter, the under-center, play-action fake became the featured cog of the offense, and the passing game woke up.

Why? Because the Bills were running the ball in dominant fashion. James Cook III ended the day with 32 carries for 144 yards. Ray Davis contributed another 62 yards on nine carries. Allen ran it eight more times for 38 yards. It is perplexing to say about a team employing the reigning MVP at quarterback, but the Bills’ offense has been remarkably better this season when it commits to the ground game.

Consider the Bills’ frustrating losses this season. Against the Falcons, who sported one of the league’s worst run defenses at the time, the Bills called passes on 63% of their snaps. That wasn’t a function of the game script, either — they had a pass rate over expectation of 3.6%, per Next Gen Stats. Against the Dolphins in Week 10, the Bills were 71% pass, 29% run — a huge skew. Again, adjusting for game script, the Bills had a big pass rate over expectation of plus-5.5%.

The Bills’ previous single-game high for run rate over expectation was plus-4.6%. Against the Steelers, it was plus-20.4%. You’d think such an approach is keeping Allen, the team’s Lamborghini, parked in the garage. I think it’s the Bills finally recognizing that they have two Lamborghinis.

Over the past two seasons, the Bills’ running game has shown signs of Eagles- or Ravens-esque dominance thanks to a talented offensive line led by a great OL coach in Aaron Kromer, as well as a remarkably underrated back in Cook. Cook doesn’t have the true third gear that the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs does, and he accordingly hits fewer home runs. He doesn’t have the frame that the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor does, and he accordingly breaks fewer tackles. But while Cook’s physical traits are more great than elite, his vision and feel are truly top tier.

Cook has 231 carries and has been stuffed for no gain or a loss only 26 times. Only five backs in the NGS era have had 200-plus carries and a lower stuff rate than Cook; one of the five is his own 2023 season.

When the Bills commit to a run-first approach on offense, they roll their opponents. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt spoke about this after the game, specifically Buffalo’s use of a run concept called Duo. He said, “I’ve never seen a team run the same play as much as they ran it today and have as much success as they had. I’m out of words for it.”

This brings us back to Allen and the passing game. If the running game is bulldozing that effectively, shouldn’t play-action passes result in deep shots? Single-high coverages, loaded boxes, biting linebackers, etc.?

Ideally, yes. But deep passing is much more a wide receiver stat than a quarterbacking stat. Take deep accuracy: When the ball is in the air for an extended period of time, a receiver’s ability to quickly track and adjust to the throw is the difference between a ball that looks accurate and one that looks inaccurate. Faster receivers are good for uncovering on a runway but bad at catching through contact from incoming safeties; bigger receivers are great at boxing out cornerbacks at the catch point but require chemistry and trust. Some throws in shallower regions of the field still require some of these traits, of course, but some are just point and shoot. This is not the case further downfield. Every throw is in the air long enough that its accuracy is dramatically affected by the receiver tracking it.

Watch Allen’s dropbacks on Sunday, and you’ll see open receivers further downfield. Here’s Brandin Cooks uncovering in the intermediate middle in a big void between zones.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 2, 2025