Don't be surprised if … Brock Purdy leads in passing TDs, Luther Burden III breaks out in 2026

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help.

With another fantasy season in the books, we quickly turn the page to focus on next season. If any of these thoughts come true in 2026 … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats.

Quarterback

Position recap: Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen led in fantasy points, even while sitting Week 18, and he enjoyed his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. … Sophomore Drake Maye was a surprise No. 2 finisher, with the 23-year-old edging out another surprise, mostly undrafted 37-year-old Matthew Stafford (leader in passing yards, passing TDs). Every year is the year to fade top quarterbacks, but especially this year. … Patrick Mahomes (knee) joined Allen, Maye and Stafford in averaging 20 points per game, but his season ended in Week 15. … Trevor Lawrence (finally) was a December star, and he finished fourth in QB scoring, thanks in part to nine rushing scores. … Injuries knocked top-5 QB ADP selections Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow off track, forcing managers to invest in the forgotten Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett. It worked out, at least for a while.

Don’t be surprised if …

• Chicago Bears starter Caleb Williams, who fell just short of becoming the first in franchise history to reach 4,000 passing yards (3,942), seizes the club records with 4,500 yards and 32 touchdown passes in 2026. Williams also rushes for seven touchdowns. He will be a top-5 fantasy QB for a while.

• Rehabbing Kansas City Chiefs starter Mahomes (knee) returns ahead of schedule for Week 1 and plays in all 17 games. We thank him for the career-high 422 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns from 2025, but it doesn’t happen again. He does surpass 4,000 yards for a seventh season, though.

• The sophomore season for New York Giants starter Jaxson Dart also looks different, with more throwing (he gets the awesome Malik Nabers back from a knee injury) and, ostensibly to keep him safer, less running. Dart’s Year 2 will not quite follow the same path as Maye’s, though.

• New Orleans Saints sophomore Tyler Shough becomes a QB1 option. He sure showed it over the second half of the 2025 season. Sure, Shough was a rookie, but not a young one. Shough is actually a week older than Jaguars five-year veteran Lawrence! Shough over Lawrence in 2026? One of them will be the bargain, and it isn’t Lawrence.

• Brissett remains the starting QB for the transitioning Arizona Cardinals, and while he goes unselected in most drafts, he throws for 4,000 yards (and 14 interceptions). Meanwhile, former Cardinal Kyler Murray falls short of 4,000 passing yards for … the New York Jets.

• All four NFC East QBs (Jalen Hurts, Daniels, Dak Prescott and Dart) finish among the top 12 at the position in fantasy points.

• San Francisco 49ers star Brock Purdy, who averaged 19.7 fantasy points (sixth most) ties Burrow with a league-leading 38 touchdown passes. Each QB starts all 17 games.

• Riley Leonard starts more Indianapolis Colts games in 2026 than Daniel Jones.

• Wily veteran Joe Flacco signs with the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing his — OK, our — goal of playing for each AFC North franchise. Let the speculation begin.

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Running back

Position recap: 49ers star Christian McCaffrey dusted the field with 416.6 points, the 12th-most single-season fantasy points in history. He went from a disappointing four games during the 2024 season to playing in every game. … Four other RBs, all popular draft-day selections, averaged 20 points per game (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane). … This was the year to trust the top RB. … James Cook III won the rushing title, with 32-year-old Derrick Henry not far behind. … Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty finished as borderline RB1 options, sailing past 200 points, hardly the definition of draft-day busts. … Javonte Williams resurrected his career in Dallas. … None of the 17 running backs to rush for 1,000 yards were rookies, though several came close, and Year 2 should be much better.

Don’t be surprised if …

• McCaffrey, entering his age-30 season in 2026, goes No. 1 in many drafts and plays in 12 of 17 games. He is terrific in those games, but it is risky to expect a repeat of the durability and the outstanding 102 receptions.

• Notre Dame star Jeremiyah Love is the next top running back in the NFL draft for fantasy managers to drool over. He goes to the Chiefs and, with better infrastructure, performs better than Jeanty did. (Don’t blame Jeanty, of course.) Jeanty sails past 1,200 rushing yards in his second season with Indiana rookie Fernando Mendoza (the pending No. 1 pick) as the Raiders’ new QB.

• Giants sophomore Cam Skattebo (ankle) returns for Week 1 and scores 14 touchdowns in Year 2. He ends up the top scorer among NFC East running backs. Hmmm.

• Skattebo and seven other exciting, second-year RBs (Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Kyle Monangai, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Bhayshul Tuten) sail past 1,000 rushing yards in 2026. Watch Henderson, in particular, if the Patriots give him big volume.

• Baltimore Ravens star Henry rushes for 1,350 yards and 12 touchdowns, yet again. Few view him as an RB1 on draft day, but those who secure him after Round 2 sure love it. Again.

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Wide receiver

Position recap: A late surge over the final five weeks pushed Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua into the top spot with 375 points, the 13th-most in a single season at the position. Nacua and Seattle Seahawks breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba were the lone WRs to average 20 points per game. … Three other WRs reached 100 catches, with Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown no surprise, but Chris Olave, the No. 39 WR in ADP, sure was. … Nabers and Tyreek Hill each played in only four games. … George Pickens outscored Dallas Cowboys teammate CeeDee Lamb. … New Ram Davante Adams paced WRs with 14 TDs. … Carolina Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan was one of 19 WRs to reach 1,000 receiving yards, but the lone rookie, as Emeka Egbuka sputtered in December. … Tampa Bay Buccaneers veteran Mike Evans (only eight games) failed to reach 1,000 yards for the first time in 12 seasons. … Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson made it for the sixth consecutive season, while Jaguars bust Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t come close.

Don’t be surprised if …

• Nacua makes another run at 2,000 receiving yards. He averaged 107 yards per game, and he missed one game. To reach 2,000 yards, he would need to average 117 yards over 17 games.

• Pickens takes off for the Bills and enjoys his second-best season, with 1,350 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.

• Bears sophomore Luther Burden III breaks out with 77 catches, 1,100 receiving yards and 8 TDs. Rome Odunze does not do this. DJ Moore joins the Raiders.

• A healthy Evans, in his age-33 season, plays in 15 games and surpasses 1,000 receiving yards for the 12th in his 13 seasons. Yeah, some of us are still bitter about the 2025 season. A healthy QB Baker Mayfield rebounds nicely as well.

• Four Jacksonville Jaguars become relevant WR3/WR4 options, ending up between 750 and 900 receiving yards, but like the Packers WRs of recent times, fantasy managers will always be guessing. The aforementioned Thomas bounces back to lead the way, followed by Travis Hunter (don’t forget him), Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.

• The most recent Green Bay Packers WR not named Davante Adams to reach 1,000 receiving yards was Jordy Nelson in 2016. Christian Watson finally breaks that streak in 2026.

• No 49ers WR has reached 1,000 receiving yards the past two seasons. Both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall get there in 2026. Purdy’s best season is pending.

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Tight end

Position recap: Cardinals star Trey McBride, aiming to prove the six touchdowns over his first three seasons didn’t define him, scored a whopping 11 times, to go with 126 receptions and 1,239 yards. He outscored all but eight flex-eligible options and No. 2 TE Kyle Pitts Sr. by 105.1 points! … Pitts, thanks in part to a 45.6-point monstrosity in Week 15, enjoyed his best season, though many fantasy managers remained unconvinced. … Managers doubted aging legend Travis Kelce, but he finished third in TE scoring, a shade ahead of the top rookie Tyler Warren. … Preseason No. 1 Brock Bowers, like Pitts buoyed by one aberrant Week 9 outing with 43.3 points, disappointed overall. … Bowers, George Kittle and Tucker Kraft each averaged 14.7 points, second to McBride, but they combined to miss 20 games.

Don’t be surprised if …

• McBride is awesome, but rookies Harold Fannin Jr. and Colston Loveland are the future at tight end. Loveland became the first rookie TE to lead a playoff team in receiving yards since Keith Jackson with the 1988 Eagles. Fannin easily led his non-playoff team with 731 yards. Fannin and Loveland are top-5 TEs in 2026 and arguably the top dynasty options.

• Kelce aside, look at all the young tight ends in the NFL! Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq is next. Based on the instant success of rookies at this position recently (not just 2025, but Bowers in 2024, Sam LaPorta in 2023, etc.), we can assume Sadiq will be worth a draft-day look in fantasy, regardless of franchise.

• Ravens backup Isaiah Likely, in his fifth season, finally emerges as a consistent stat provider, catching 60 passes for 690 yards. Mark Andrews heads for the Dolphins.

• New Chiefs starting TE Noah Gray, entering his sixth NFL season but first with full-season opportunity, makes 67 receptions for 862 yards and 5 TDs. Those are the exact numbers Kelce achieved in 2014, his first full season. Kelce retires a week before the Super Bowl.