Middle East Tensions: European Air Traffic Expected to Lose 110,000 Flights

London: Due to tensions in the Middle East, European air traffic is expected to see a reduction of 110,000 flights. Despite strong passenger demand during the summer, the European aviation sector showed growth below expectations.

According to forecasts by aviation agency Eurocontrol, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to slow European air traffic growth, resulting in a loss of approximately 110,000 flights in 2026. Meanwhile, despite strong passenger demand during the summer, the European aviation sector performed below growth expectations. In the meantime, the number of flights in the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) region is expected to reach 11.2 million this year, with an increase of 1.7 percent, which is lower than the previously expected growth of 2.7 percent, reflecting a one percent decline.

Developments in the region, which led to changes in flight routes and an increase in jet fuel prices, affected the growth outlook for European aviation, but Eurocontrol expects growth to regain momentum next year, with an estimated 11.6 million flights in 2027, an increase of 3.2 percent. However, the decline in this year’s growth forecast has raised concerns that the number of flights next year may also remain below estimates.

Subsequently, Eurocontrol believes that the situation in the Middle East will stabilise by the end of the first quarter of 2027, but in a more pessimistic scenario, it has forecast that tensions will continue until the end of the first quarter of 2028, in which higher fuel prices and weaker economic growth will limit demand for air travel. However, recovery in air traffic is expected to be more pronounced next year, but the organisation noted that recovery may be stronger in Turkey and some countries in the eastern Mediterranean.

According to Eurocontrol, an average annual increase of 2.1 percent is expected in the number of flights across Europe from 2026 to 2032, while the total number of flights in the region is estimated to reach approximately 12.8 million by 2032. Although the organisation expects the medium-term growth outlook to remain largely unchanged, the number of flights may be slightly lower than previous expectations due to geopolitical developments. Eurocontrol’s network management report recorded an average of 35,697 flights per day in European airspace last month, which is 2.5 percent higher month-on-month. Meanwhile, the busiest day was September 4, when 37,548 flights were recorded in European airspace. According to the report, total delays due to air traffic flow management were slightly more than 2.4 million minutes. Despite the increase in air traffic, capacity constraints, bad weather and air traffic management issues affected operational performance.

Furthermore, the organisation said that geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices and demand for air travel will determine trends in the coming period.