Arab political parties have emerged as potential kingmakers in Israel after an inconclusive election left neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance with enough seats to form a government on its own.
The Arab-led parties won a combined 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset — 11 for the Joint List and eight for Ra’am — giving them the potential to determine whether Eisenkot can replace Netanyahu or whether Israel heads toward another round of political deadlock. A government requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
The election produced a fractured parliament. Eisenkot’s four-party opposition bloc won 48 seats, while Netanyahu’s governing bloc won 53. The Arab parties hold the remaining 19 seats, meaning their support could provide the numbers needed to reach a parliamentary majority or sustain a minority government.
Who are Israel’s Arab parties?
Arab parties primarily represent Israel’s Arab and Palestinian citizens, who make up roughly one-fifth of the country’s population and are eligible to vote and serve in the Knesset.
The two major Arab political groupings in the new parliament are Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List, an Arab-led alliance made up of Hadash, Ta’al and Balad.
Ra’am is an Islamist-oriented, socially conservative party that has generally taken a pragmatic approach to Israeli politics. Its priorities include greater government investment in Arab communities, improved education, health care and infrastructure, combating crime and violence, and greater political and economic equality for Arab citizens.
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ra’am supports the establishment of a Palestinian state and has backed a two-state solution.
Abbas has also called for the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups.
The Joint List, meanwhile, brings together Hadash, Ta’al and Balad and represents a broader range of Arab political currents, including Palestinian nationalist and left-wing and socialist elements. Its leadrs have focused on Palestinian statehood, opposition to the occupation and settlements, equality for Arab citizens, and issues including housing and crime in Arab communities.
The parties have historically been outside Israel’s governing coalitions, making their new influence particularly significant. An Arab party has joined an Israeli governing coalition only once, and reliance on Arab lawmakers remains politically controversial among Jewish parties.
Eisenkot gets the first chance
President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot with forming the next government after consultations with the parties elected to the Knesset.
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, leads the Yashar party, which won 21 seats, making it the second-largest party in the Knesset behind Netanyahu’s Likud, which won 27 seats. Eisenkot’s broader four-party bloc holds 48 seats.
During consultations with Herzog, 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot as the candidate to form the government, compared with 46 who recommended Netanyahu.
The seven lawmakers from United Torah Judaism did not recommend either candidate. The 67 recommendations include the 19 Arab lawmakers.
The 67 recommendations gave Eisenkot the advantage in receiving the mandate, but they do not automatically mean that he has a 67-seat governing coalition. The Arab parties have indicated they can support him, but it remains unclear whether they would formally join his government or provide outside support.
Eisenkot has 28 days to try to form a government, with President Herzog able to grant him an additional 14-day extension. If he fails, Netanyahu could receive another opportunity. If both attempts fail, Israel could eventually face another election.
Arab support could decide Netanyahu’s political future
The arithmetic is straightforward but politically complicated.
Eisenkot’s 48-seat bloc plus the 19 Arab lawmakers would total 67 seats, comfortably above the 61-seat threshold. But several parties in Eisenkot’s bloc have previously opposed forming a government with Arab parties, creating a major obstacle to a conventional coalition.
Ra’am’s eight lawmakers and the Joint List’s 11 lawmakers have nevertheless backed Eisenkot in the presidential consultations. Their recommendations helped him surpass Netanyahu and secure the first opportunity to form a government.
For Netanyahu, the election was a significant setback. His bloc fell from 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset to 53, leaving it eight seats short of the 61 needed for a majority. Netanyahu remains a central figure in coalition negotiations and could get another chance if Eisenkot cannot put together a government.
The result leaves Israel facing several possible scenarios: an Eisenkot-led government supported by Arab parties, a minority government relying on Arab lawmakers from outside the coalition, a broader unity arrangement involving Netanyahu’s Likud, or another election.
For now, however, one fact dominates the political arithmetic: the Arab parties’ 19 Knesset seats could determine who governs Israel next.
